Crashometer goes from 3 to 4

Pobby

chucky wrote: »

close to 50% could have happened without the emergency measures.

close to 30% in real terms could be achievable IMO

Interesting that you feel that there could be still a way to go. Tbh, not a lot of evidence here in the south west then again, there doesn`t seem to be a lot selling.

Sort of 15% ish feeling off from the peak but not too sure on that.

I guess, where I am, there are a lot of new builds, and I sure think they are suffering badly. A buddy of mine bought one. 2 bed flat going at around the £179k mark at peak. He was commenting that out of the 30 odd flats only 8 are owner occupied and there has been a lot of grief with the noise and rubbish being strewn about. He is also hoping to retire at about the same time as me and strange to say, although we are 200 miles away from our home towns and met here, we went to the same school together. Both of us want to return to the place of our birth.

Hope that his pad doesn`t devalue too much. Always thought it a silly move to buy something like that when, for the same price a very, very decent 3 bed house would have been available.

chucky

Pobby wrote: »

Interesting that you feel that there could be still a way to go. Tbh, not a lot of evidence here in the south west then again, there doesn`t seem to be a lot selling.

Sort of 15% ish feeling off from the peak but not too sure on that.

why interesting? i've always thought that way - i was never into 50% falls.
it could never happen.

in nominal terms it won't be a big drop if at all - the drops will be in real terms where spending is reduced, rates increase over time and potenitally inflation.

for those looking to buy it's worse it's better for homeowners - prices don't really drop and they have less disposable income.

Pobby

chucky wrote: »

why interesting? i've always thought that way - i was never into 50% falls.
it could never happen.

in nominal terms it won't be a big drop if at all - the drops will be in real terms where spending is reduced, rates increase over time and potenitally inflation.

for those looking to buy it's worse it's better for homeowners - prices don't really drop and they have less disposable income.

So what you are saying is a period of stagnation against a back ground of higher interest rates. Have I got that right?

That, instead of actual drops, similar to those we saw in the the early 90`s.

chucky

Pobby wrote: »

So what you are saying is a period of stagnation against a back ground of higher interest rates. Have I got that right?

That, instead of actual drops, similar to those we saw in the the early 90`s.

yes but the back ground will be a combination of less disposable income, higher inflation and higher rates.

i can't see all of three being there at the same time but they will all have an impact in whichever order.

Pobby

Well I certainly don`t see the BOE interest rates at 0.5% as " real world " interest rates, rather more like a sticking plaster. Indeed, one that has hopefully worked up to know. Vested interest here is that I am losing £1,000s of pounds worth of interest a year but so be it. Better that I can keep my little business ticking over, and ticking over is about the best description, and people not being chucked out on the street. I saw that last time around and it is not a nice sight.

It does look like taxes will be raised and I also can`t see that public spending can carry on as it is.

PasturesNew

Radiantsoul wrote: »

"The only problem is that it would involve changing the light bulb"

If the lights are on, you need to open the doors ... that'll send out a message!