OH MY GOODNESS - the house price crash hits home!

mitchaa

Hamish, how far is Aberdeen/Aberdeenshire off of peak now?

I haven't looked at the tables for a while, but must be getting close? If i remember correctly though, our peak did not happen until mid 2008, about a year after nationally.

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

Spartacus_Mills wrote: »

I am not being pedantic. You are being misleading. I simply want to understand what her financial losses are at this stage as you are claiming.

Any increase in lifetime housing costs is pure speculation.

No, it's not speculation.

Every year of rent is a straight addition to lifetime housing costs. It only pays off if house prices are falling by more than the costs of renting in the meantime. Year on year house price rises are absolutely terrible news for housing bears, as that rent could have been paying off the interest on a mortgage instead, and they could have locked in the lower house price and better mortgage rates of a year ago.

Harry_Powell

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

People come here to debate house prices and the economy. And I'm sure most of us, myself included, are happy to admit we have learned a lot from doing so.

Such a debate however, is only possible when facts are presented on both sides, and the merits of them addressed. We can disagree on the meaning of the stats or the indices, but we should at least be able to reference them. Not just make house prices performance up when the truth doesn't agree with our opinion of where house prices should be.

Which is what carol has done, repeatedly. Using a street with an infamous murder, or a house that has been wrecked and made unmortgagable doesn't prove price drops, it only proves desperation to convince others that price drops are occurring.

You frequently engage in ad hominem and falsely accuse me of desperation, or of being heavily indebted, despite Aberdeen prices now being higher than almost every month in 2007 (and verifiably so). Yet your double standards don't seem to allow you to accuse carolt of desperation for lying about house prices in the south east.

Very odd....

Carolt posts one thread a month (full moon?) that seems intended to cause an argument, you create one thread a day that seems intended to cause an argument. No double standards here, I'm just reacting in a proportionate way.

Everyone knows that carolt is a fantasist, you don't need to crush her or humilate her all the time to point this out. Give her a break.

chucky

silvercar wrote: »

Part of that location is wrong; not that I think you need to try to pinpoint someones exact location when they have chosen not to make that info public.

why not? she's told the board before that it's an area west of London within the home counties :eek:

she's obviously even more of a story teller then because her stories add up even less

carolt wrote: »

Reluctant to spend £1000 or more for a full structural survey (is that the right kind of price for a full survey on a 3 bed end terraced in Greater London) if there is subsidence....

http://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/showpost.html?p=4506842&postcount=4

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

mitchaa wrote: »

Hamish, how far is Aberdeen/Aberdeenshire off of peak now?

I haven't looked at the tables for a while, but must be getting close? If i remember correctly though, our peak did not happen until mid 2008, about a year after nationally.

We had a double peak. July 07, and July 08, although the other months in 08 were lower than in 07.

Aberdeen City:
RoS Monthly index, -4% from absolute peak, (July 2007) but higher than every month in 2007 except July and September, and every month in 2008 except July.

Aberdeen housing area (includes most of the 'shire)
ASPC quarterly index, Q4 2009, -3% from peak, which was Q3 2007.

Latest RoS weekly flash figure (but it's noisy), Aberdeeen City, -1% from peak.

The reality on the ground is that good houses in decent areas are back above peak already, in some cases significantly so. The dross in the ex council estates is still 7% or so below 2007 prices. Houses are being marketed at peak prices, and volume is back to around 65% or 70% of peak.

Spartacus_Mills

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

No, it's not speculation.

Every year of rent is a straight addition to lifetime housing costs. It only pays off if house prices are falling by more than the costs of renting in the meantime. Year on year house price rises are absolutely terrible news for housing bears, as that rent could have been paying off the interest on a mortgage instead, and they could have locked in the lower house price and better mortgage rates of a year ago.

Yes it is speculation. You do not know what her lifetime housing costs would be and what expenses she would have if she rented. She may find renting cheaper dependant on monthly payments and she does not have the costs associated with ownership to endure. Everyone's circumstances are different and your blanket statements do them no justice.

PaulW1965

Spartacus_Mills wrote: »

Yes it is speculation. You do not know what her lifetime housing costs would be and what expenses she would have if she rented. She may find renting cheaper dependant on monthly payments and she does not have the costs associated with ownership to endure. Everyone's circumstances are different and your blanket statements do them no justice.

I find it impossible to think off any scenario where a person (particularly a family) would be better off (financially) renting, rather than buying, over their life time (in the UK). Please enlighten me.

Harry_Powell

PaulW1965 wrote: »

I find it impossible to think off any scenario where a person (particularly a family) would be better off financially renting a house, rather than buying one, over their life time (in the UK). Please enlighten me.

Many people who are flexible with their geographical locations have much better career prospects and consequently have much better remuneration. By renting a house, rather than buying, they ensure that they have that flexibilty.

PaulW1965

Harry_Powell wrote: »

Many people who are flexible with their geographical locations have much better career prospects and consequently have much better remuneration. By renting a house, rather than buying, they ensure that they have that flexibilty.

Disagree. If you live in the SE and are prepared to become a frequent flier you can have both - you can own your own home and make lots of money.

IveSeenTheLight

mitchaa wrote: »

Hamish, how far is Aberdeen/Aberdeenshire off of peak now?

I haven't looked at the tables for a while, but must be getting close? If i remember correctly though, our peak did not happen until mid 2008, about a year after nationally.

Here's the ROSEA for Aberdeen, Aberdeenshire and Scotland in graph form