Is David Kauders right to forecast more trouble ahead for UK economy

Old_Slaphead

OneADay wrote: »

I could bang my head against the wall as to why the government has not invested in science and technology over the 10 years and new nuclear plants. We were being warned at school in 80s about fuel shortages 20 years on. :eek:

Probably because they didn't think it was " the right thing to do" an were too busy pondering the " difficult choices" ahead ie which directorship they were going to go for.

This government has only invested in expanding the state and making as many as possible dependant upon benefits so as to ensure the sucessions of future Labour governments.

tradetime

Masomnia wrote: »

If anything I'd have thought the end of QE would mean the £ increasing in value as it means fewer £s entering the system, but you can't really tell anything for sure. Only £5 billion to go so it won't be too long before we find out what the effects will be.

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Hmmn yes and no, on the surface you could consider that, however much of the QE is targeted towards bond purchases in order to fund the governments deficit, an end to QE with the country in so much debt would most likely lead to failed bond auctions (unless they can convince the banks to step up and purchase in their place) which would most likely lead to a run on Sterling, which is the main reason I do not believe QE will end as suggested.

Masomnia

tradetime wrote: »

Hmmn yes and no, on the surface you could consider that, however much of the QE is targeted towards bond purchases in order to fund the governments deficit, an end to QE with the country in so much debt would most likely lead to failed bond auctions (unless they can convince the banks to step up and purchase in their place) which would most likely lead to a run on Sterling, which is the main reason I do not believe QE will end as suggested.

QE is certainly funding the deficit, even if it is only the 'unofficial' the reason for it. Monetising our debt is illegal, of course.

Recent auctions have been well covered so we'll just have to see. I don't think they'll continue it this time and test the water to see how the bond auctions go. I'm sure they'll start requiring pension funds to hold more gilts, to help plug the gap, and I think banks will be required to hold more in June anyway because of the new reserve requirements. Lots of factors at play here.

amcluesent

These are 'the good old days'. 30 years from now, Britain will be on the scrap-heap after everything has been sold-off as the State consumes any and all private assets to the point of final collapse.

Post peak-oil, we'll see a decade of increasingly confiscatory taxation on income and consumption, to the point where work and business are futile. Then they'll come for the likes of the savers ("Hoarders") and BTL landlords ("Enemies of the people") who will forfeit their assets to the State for re-distribution. Once there's nothing left, the Ponzi schemes of fiat currencies, welfarism, perpetual "growth" etc. will implode.

The four horsemen of pestilence, war, famine and death will ride!

tradetime

Recent auctions have been well covered

The BOE has been quite open about it's bond purchase program, as open as their likely to be anyway, and yes auctions have been well covered, as has the US auctions, which we have been one of the largest buyers.........now I wonder who's covering ours

Also agree, that one route would be to pressure the banks to increase purchase, hadn't thought of pernsion funds, interesting idea, but I still bet QE is active for some time, the initial run was afterall supposed to be £150 billion, but that has steadily rose to £200. It's a difficult thing to stop once started. The phrase "the nuclear option" embodies it's implications quite well.

StevieJ

nickj wrote: »

the cause of the credit crunch was too much borrowing
so the govt have "cured " it by more borrowing and making it even cheaper to do so
when interest rates start to rise then i think we'll see more fireworks

Yes in US sub-prime, stoked by unscrupulous mortgage salesmen :eek:

StevieJ

amcluesent wrote: »

These are 'the good old days'. 30 years from now, Britain will be on the scrap-heap after everything has been sold-off as the State consumes any and all private assets to the point of final collapse.

Post peak-oil, we'll see a decade of increasingly confiscatory taxation on income and consumption, to the point where work and business are futile. Then they'll come for the likes of the savers ("Hoarders") and BTL landlords ("Enemies of the people") who will forfeit their assets to the State for re-distribution. Once there's nothing left, the Ponzi schemes of fiat currencies, welfarism, perpetual "growth" etc. will implode.

The four horsemen of pestilence, war, famine and death will ride!

Have you ever thought of writing science fiction Maybe you do and are just testing it on us

Rollinghome

amcluesent wrote: »

The four horsemen of pestilence, war, famine and death will ride!

I think you may be eating too much cheese before bedtime.