Is David Kauders right to forecast more trouble ahead for UK economy

annie42

David Kauders says the credit crunch, which he predicted, was just a warm up act and there's worse to come when governments stop printing money. The UK government is due to stop at the end of this month so what might happen next? He says we will reach a point when borrowing will have to stop and the only solution will be for the economy to "suffer a painful realignment". It does feel to me as if we are living with a false sense of security?

nickj_2

the cause of the credit crunch was too much borrowing
so the govt have "cured " it by more borrowing and making it even cheaper to do so
when interest rates start to rise then i think we'll see more fireworks

mr_fishbulb

annie42 wrote: »

It does feel to me as if we are living with a false sense of security?

I think we a living with a false sense of an economy.

withnell

annie42 wrote: »

David Kauders

Am I the only one thinking "who"?

OneADay

House prices still inflated, economy not going to move anything like it did during dot com period (there is no internet to be built any more).

Service sector is what it is - but when there are no jobs for people to do and ever decreasing number of jobs - its a disaster far worse than anything since the 40s.

Its doom and more doom and quantitive easing is micky mouse economy which hides the problems under the carpet for a while till they crop up again - namely debit, debit and more debit and unemployment.

Iceland worried about paying back £3billion, nothing compared to hundreds of billions the UK is in debit by.

turbobob

withnell wrote: »

Am I the only one thinking "who"?

An eccentric portfolio manager, I think. Says he will only buy shares if the market falls around 80% from where it is now.

Some articles by him here:
http://www.thisismoney.co.uk/investing/article.html?in_article_id=497177&in_page_id=166
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/personalfinance/investing/4969399/Sell-every-asset-except-gilts.html
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/personalfinance/investing/3159512/The-bear-market-has-a-long-way-to-run.html

tradetime

turbobob wrote: »

An eccentric portfolio manager, I think. Says he will only buy shares if the market falls around 80% from where it is now.

Some articles by him here:
http://www.thisismoney.co.uk/investing/article.html?in_article_id=497177&in_page_id=166
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/personalfinance/investing/4969399/Sell-every-asset-except-gilts.html
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/personalfinance/investing/3159512/The-bear-market-has-a-long-way-to-run.html

:rotfl::rotfl::rotfl:Best he takes a holiday then, quite a long one, I think.

OneADay

Ditched my shares in 2001 (made up the losses first quickly) - never bought back :-)
You could see the bigger train crash coming...

luvpump

It will mean a long period of austerity IMO, but if the u.k economy can survive two world wars I am sure it can survive this

mr_fishbulb

luvpump wrote: »

It will mean a long period of austerity IMO, but if the u.k economy can survive two world wars I am sure it can survive this

And one world cup! Doo-dah. Doo-dah.

turbobob

tradetime wrote: »

:rotfl::rotfl::rotfl:Best he takes a holiday then, quite a long one, I think.

Yes, if he was a manager of an equity fund he'd have a long wait

In all seriousness I think that there is some merit in what he is saying. In the second Telegraph article he is talking about a bigger long term bear market. Perhaps that will pan out, who knows... But of course within such long time frames there are major movements in both directions and ample opportunity to make money.