Nationwide's Real 0.4% fall - December

ruggedtoast

This thread has caused a lot of excitement hasn't it.

:-)

Emy1501

stueyhants wrote: »

So where do you think the balance will lie between supply and demand this year? Will there be sufficient supply coming on to the market on the back of last year prices rises or will the low IR keep people hanging on to their attractive base rate (+small number) mortgages and this stifling supply?

My view is that we will see supply increase enough to satisfy demand (proceed able demand!) and possibly slightly above so that prices stop increasing on average. There will always be some areas which outperform the average.

Don't Know. I will do what I did last year and regiester with agents and then visit a few properties at the end of the month. If I see what I saw this time last year then demand will be outstriping supply if I don't then maybe there will be enough supply for the demand.

HammerSmashedFace

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

This should be required reading for anyone moaning about approval levels.

Actuals are in green. The number of approvals required for price neutrality are in red. So long as the green line stays above the red line, prices will stay in an upwards trend. (although small seasonal fluctuations are possible at any time)

From houseprices.uk.net......

Interesting graph, if it shows anything, it shows that things are far from normal. So what we have is a market that can just about be kept on life support with money printing and record low rates. With public sector cuts, higher taxes, peak oil pushing up inflation in essentials whilst wages remain static........interesting times are ahead.

ruggedtoast

To be perfectly frank - you lot are all just armchair chancers. Sitting there in your rooms, tabbing between this and youporn.

Fumbling for your kleenex.

I know what you're up to.

I am out there, on the front line, the cliff face, keeping it real.

I'm doing viewings and getting quotes people!

I am to you lot what SAS special ops in Afghanistan are to people playing Call of Duty.

ruggedtoast

I mean seriously, how many of you have been grasped in a sticky handshake by a seller with desperation in his eyes!

Do you even know what its like to look in someone's small pantry and have to think of something encouraging to say about it??

Do you??!!!

Jonbvn

mbga9pgf wrote: »

Jon, thats half the 2007 lending total.

So? Surely from a HPI/C viewpoint 2007 does not represent a credible datum?

IveSeenTheLight

HammerSmashedFace wrote: »

It needs smashing once and for all with LTV caps, wage multiple caps and 80% capital gains tax on BTL. Only then will this ridiculous idea of 'making money for nothing' be stopped.

It isn't really making money for nothing though is it, it's robbing the next generation.

I believe that putting up capital gains for BTL to 80% would have the opposit effect to what you are looking for.
Capital Gains Tax is only pais when the asset is sold.

As a BTL LL, it would be less of an incentive to sell on a property with high capital gains as any capital appreciation would be given to the government. (Remember BTL is about rental yields, not capital appreciation)

If capital gains was lowered (you've more than quadruppled it, so to be fair we'll hypothesize at a 1/4 of the current rate) to 4%, there would probably be far more BTL landlords likely to cash in and therefore increase the supply of properties in the market.

Your suggestion would reduce the likelyhood of BTL properties being available for owner occupancy

Arch-Angel

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

There will be no glut of properties, the banks will not force mass selloffs when it would only damage their balance sheets to do so. People deciding to move because prices have gone up and they're no longer in N.E. will also not cause a glut, as they will all also need to buy somewhere new. Nor will QE be reversed until liquidity is at a point in the economy which can sustain it.

A fair statement I think. With many people on BoE tracker rates, we're unlikely to see large quantities "must sell now" properties on the market.

What we might see however is more properties on the market as the price is considered to be "better". Some of these will be people looking to move up the property ladder, but other houses will belong to "unintended BTL" - property that the owner decided to rent out because they couldn't sell it (and therefore couldn't close the chain). The latter are not on BoE + 2% deals so it's in their interest to sell. There may be other people in similar categories whereby they "want" to sell....but might not "need" to sell....

In a simplistic sense, more property on the market = more choice. More choice without a corresponding increase in potential buyers can only result in a modest drop in prices. I'm not saying "2nd leg of crash incoming" as something more drastic needs to happen with the economy for that to happen.

IveSeenTheLight

Arch-Angel wrote: »

A fair statement I think. With many people on BoE tracker rates, we're unlikely to see large quantities "must sell now" properties on the market.

What we might see however is more properties on the market as the price is considered to be "better". Some of these will be people looking to move up the property ladder, but other houses will belong to "unintended BTL" - property that the owner decided to rent out because they couldn't sell it (and therefore couldn't close the chain). The latter are not on BoE + 2% deals so it's in their interest to sell. There may be other people in similar categories whereby they "want" to sell....but might not "need" to sell....

In a simplistic sense, more property on the market = more choice. More choice without a corresponding increase in potential buyers can only result in a modest drop in prices. I'm not saying "2nd leg of crash incoming" as something more drastic needs to happen with the economy for that to happen.

Fair comments I think, however more properties on the market could just mean better stabalising of prices.
The rise this year has still been too great for sustainability.

I believe there are many potential buyers out their as well who are waiting for the right property (well I definately know at least two people personally).
These people who want to buy but are waiting until there is more choice could mean that the increased supply will not necesarily mean a drop, due to the increased demand (desire and ability).

It's a fine balance between supply and demand, long term though there still appear to be shortages to the supply

Cleaver

brit1234 wrote: »

I always pictured you in my head as much younger Brit.