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Nationwide's Real 0.4% fall - December
brit1234
Posts: 5,385 Forumite
Nationwide's Real House Price Index ends year with a 0.4% fall
December is usually the month when Nationwide’s widely reported seasonally adjusted House Price Index shows the largest upward adjustment from the real figure and this year was no different.
Thus a real fall of 0.4% in December is translated into a seasonally adjusted rise of 0.4%. This is the first real monthly fall since the market bottomed out in February and leaves the index 5.9% up on the year. Over any 12 month period the Real and Seasonally Adjusted figures must agree and so 5.9% is the annual rise on both bases.
The Real index ends the year 12.9% down from its October 2007 peak but 9.7% up from its February 2009 floor. Virtually all of the bounce took place in the seven months between March and September, with the index increasing by only 0.2% in the last three months of the year.
4 January 2010 | By Ray Boulger
http://www.mortgagestrategy.co.uk/na...004410.article
December is usually the month when Nationwide’s widely reported seasonally adjusted House Price Index shows the largest upward adjustment from the real figure and this year was no different.
Thus a real fall of 0.4% in December is translated into a seasonally adjusted rise of 0.4%. This is the first real monthly fall since the market bottomed out in February and leaves the index 5.9% up on the year. Over any 12 month period the Real and Seasonally Adjusted figures must agree and so 5.9% is the annual rise on both bases.
The Real index ends the year 12.9% down from its October 2007 peak but 9.7% up from its February 2009 floor. Virtually all of the bounce took place in the seven months between March and September, with the index increasing by only 0.2% in the last three months of the year.
4 January 2010 | By Ray Boulger
http://www.mortgagestrategy.co.uk/na...004410.article
:exclamatiScams - Shared Equity, Shared Ownership, Newbuy, Firstbuy and Help to Buy.
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with the index increasing by only 0.2% in the last three months of the year.
hamish_mctavishi am really (but pleasantly) surprised at these statistics....
even during a recession of this severity
Not Again0 -
Are we really that bothered either way about such microscopic percentages? C'mon...
It's not really good or bad news for anyone.0 -
1984ReturnsForReal wrote: »hamish_mctavish
Over any 12 month period the Real and Seasonally Adjusted figures must agree and so 5.9% is the annual rise on both bases.
I am indeed pleasantly surprised..... (but way to go taking my quote out of context)
On another note..... With a small fall, even if it is a fall smaller than would be seasonally expected, my final prediction for 2009 of falls for the winter has come to pass.“The great enemy of the truth is very often not the lie – deliberate, contrived, and dishonest – but the myth, persistent, persuasive, and unrealistic.
Belief in myths allows the comfort of opinion without the discomfort of thought.”
-- President John F. Kennedy”0 -
HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »On another note..... With a small fall, even if it is a fall smaller than would be seasonally expected, my final prediction for 2009 of falls for the winter has come to pass.
Personally I think it could start to show the market turn, Mortgage lending is down as well. Asking prices are down3 months in a row. Lets see what will happen in the next couple of months.:exclamatiScams - Shared Equity, Shared Ownership, Newbuy, Firstbuy and Help to Buy.
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Are we really that bothered either way about such microscopic percentages? C'mon...
It's not really good or bad news for anyone.
Got to agree I could not really care if they went up or down according to NW. I'm only interested in what is happening locally in my area. I hardly doubt that someone is going to put up or knock off .4% of the the sale price of their house due to these figures.0 -
Personally I think it could start to show the market turn, Mortgage lending is down as well. Asking prices are down3 months in a row. Lets see what will happen in the next couple of months.
Maybe, maybe not who knows. At this time of year these figures are pretty pointless to be honest. It will be the number of buyers and sellers who enter the market over the next couple of months who will determine where the market goes in the first few months of the year.0 -
Maybe, maybe not who knows. At this time of year these figures are pretty pointless to be honest. It will be the number of buyers and sellers who enter the market over the next couple of months who will determine where the market goes in the first few months of the year.
So where do you think the balance will lie between supply and demand this year? Will there be sufficient supply coming on to the market on the back of last year prices rises or will the low IR keep people hanging on to their attractive base rate (+small number) mortgages and this stifling supply?
My view is that we will see supply increase enough to satisfy demand (proceed able demand!) and possibly slightly above so that prices stop increasing on average. There will always be some areas which outperform the average.0 -
Got to agree I could not really care if they went up or down according to NW. I'm only interested in what is happening locally in my area. I hardly doubt that someone is going to put up or knock off .4% of the the sale price of their house due to these figures.
That's not really the point of them though is it?
The fact remains prices have fallen slightly in Dec. Not much. But fallen. Perhaps it is merely an indicator of sentiment. ie we're not seeing the huge drops of last year but nor are we returning to boom time with month after month being +ve.
Good stuff I reckon. We need some tempering of the recent rises.0 -
Personally I think it could start to show the market turn, Mortgage lending is down as well.
Eh, according to the BoE mortgage lending is rising?
The number of mortgages approved for house purchase rose in November to 60,518, the highest level since March 2008, according to the latest figures from the Bank of England (BoE).
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/2/65d652f8-f944-11de-80dc-00144feab49a.htmlIn case you hadn't already worked it out - the entire global financial system is predicated on the assumption that you're an idiot:cool:0 -
JonnyBravo wrote: »That's not really the point of them though is it?
The fact remains prices have fallen slightly in Dec. Not much. But fallen. Perhaps it is merely an indicator of sentiment. ie we're not seeing the huge drops of last year but nor are we returning to boom time with month after month being +ve.
Good stuff I reckon. We need some tempering of the recent rises.
I wouldn't have thought the buyers would be out in force in Dec with Christmas shopping etc, perhaps that is why they have a seasonal adjustment 'Just think for a moment what a prospect that is. A single market without barriers visible or invisible giving you direct and unhindered access to the purchasing power of over 300 million of the worlds wealthiest and most prosperous people' Margaret Thatcher0
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