Nationwide's Real 0.4% fall - December

HammerSmashedFace

StevieJ wrote: »

But some of you were predicting 50-70% drops this time last year under similar circumstances

TBH Steve, if it hadn't been for those two unsustainable policies 50% down would have been a sure thing, and seeing as nothing has changed fundamentally, it still could happen when these policies have to be withdrawn.

JonnyBravo

chucky wrote: »

brit1234 wrote: »

Thus a real fall of 0.4% in December is translated into a seasonally adjusted rise of 0.4%.

Picture of clutching straws

Sorry chucky I disagree. It is the non-seasonally adjusted figures that are more appropriate in my eyes. Granted that means the increases were larger in the summer and there are now falls all levelling out to the same picture but I'd rather work non-adjusted.
The people who work out these figures obviously think I'm incapable of taking account of the seasonal trends in moving house. I'm not. It's silly.

System

JonnyBravo wrote: »

And you want to get back to 2007 levels do you?

Unless it goes back over the highest value it's ever been it doesn't matter it seems.

chucky

JonnyBravo wrote: »

Sorry chucky I disagree. It is the non-seasonally adjusted figures that are more appropriate in my eyes. Granted that means the increases were larger in the summer and there are now falls all levelling out a the same picture but I'd rather work non-adjusted.
The people who work out these figures obviously think I'm incapable of taking account of the seasonal trends in moving house. I'm not. It's silly.

i agree with you too, i was winding Brit up - it's funny because not one of the bearish posters managed to spot this, they were too busy frothing about VIt, the headlines and numbers being fiddled etc..etc...

it's like the mortgage numbers yesterday - they're not bull food but they're actually bear food.

if they thought about them rationally instead of all the frothing about QE, unsustainable policies and lowest rates in 800,000 years.

JonnyBravo

mbga9pgf wrote: »

Jon, thats half the 2007 lending total.

JonnyBravo wrote: »

And you want to get back to 2007 levels do you?

Muppet.

mbga9pgf wrote: »

No, not at all.. I was pointing out half of typical lending is not a booming mortgage market.

2007 was "typical lending"???? :rotfl:

You silly boy.

mbga9pgf

we are still well short of the typical long-run average.

ruggedtoast

StevieJ wrote: »

I wouldn't have thought the buyers would be out in force in Dec with Christmas shopping etc, perhaps that is why they have a seasonal adjustment

Presumably its the average of the sales for that month though. If only one house had sold for £200,000 then that would be the average.

System

But it's rising, it's not going to shoot back to peak in one month (if ever) is it?

Every rise that happens is countered by "It's not as high as peak!!eleven", as if it means eff all.

chucky

mbga9pgf wrote: »

we are still well short of the typical long-run average.

which is how many?

do you realise that you can have 100,000 transactions and negative HPI?
just like you can have 50,000 approvals and have positive HPI

StevieJ

mbga9pgf wrote: »

Oh, and I cant wait for QE to end, got a bottle of Bubbly ready to celebrate.(together with the labour party gettting kicked out and made bankrupt by the conservative party).

But to my mind the inertia of a hung parliament is looking ever more likely :eek: