2010 FTSE100 March predictions 'wisdom of crowds'

sabretoothtigger

Can the massed peons of MSE predict the FTSE any more accurately then the 8% achieved on the last attempt. Please vote on the poll and submit a more personal guess if you like



On March 9th 2009 the FTSE index of 100 top UK listed companies reached a low of 3,461
Today, Jan 1st it is: 5,412


The poll question is where will the index be on March 9th 2010 this year?



Where next ?


March 9th 2009 was the lowest index price since a similar level of March 2003, previous to that this level had not been recorded since August 1995

Heres some more information on the current index companies and also a similar type of competition for correct predictions
http://www.stockchallenge.co.uk/ftse.php

MSE Poll result will be judged as the recorded low for March 9th as per yahoo data. Poll Entries close 3 weeks from open

The poll is private, feel free to enter a more accurate answer manually

ses6jwg

I think once QE stops, we will retest 5000

atypical

sabretoothtigger wrote: »

Can the massed peons of MSE predict the FTSE any more accurately then the 8% achieved on the last attempt.

Using the ranges given in the poll you won't be able to calculate a similar % deviation will you? We won't know if we've improved!

sabretoothtigger

For the last thread there was no poll so I took the average of every answer and one person got within like 50 points. But the average answer was 8% incorrect or 500 points off, I wont average the poll out just the indivual answers.

For the poll I would just take the highest category and say whether that was near enough or not, I maybe should have done smaller ranges but anything could happen so its been left broad

The_MoneySavingKid

5844


.....(filler)

Cleaver

5392.17

Actually, wait a second...

5392.62

sabretoothtigger

Im going to have to take your first answer there, sorry cleaver :laugh:


I think we'll fall back at bit at some point but not sure how much or for how long, so Ive not decided my answer just yet. As the thread starter I'll post at the end of the three weeks anyway so as not to bias anyone with my amazing opinion

Thrugelmir

5555

.........

StevieJ

4950 me being bearish for once

sabretoothtigger

Actually I will just guess now, 4500 because I think thats the lowest we'll go and I dont know if it'll be march or not but that'll do. I would think 4500-5000 to offer a few opportunitys

That was my guess last time also, either I just dont learn or I'll be right sooner or later http://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/showpost.html?p=25111817&postcount=27

StevieJ

sabretoothtigger wrote: »

Actually I will just guess now, 4500 because I think thats the lowest we'll go and I dont know if it'll be march or not but that'll do. I would think 4500-5000 to offer a few opportunitys

That was my guess last time also, either I just dont learn or I'll be right sooner or later http://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/showpost.html?p=25111817&postcount=27

You used the 50 day MA to justify your prediction last time, that is now well over 5000