MSE News: Nationwide: strong house price growth in January

Dan:_4

brit1234 wrote: »

Interesting times and figures. Would like to see the seasonal adjustment.

December: 162,103
January:163,481

so +0.8%

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

Joeskeppi wrote: »

Where are you getting 10.6 from?

£163,481 is 110.6% of £147,746........But £147,746 is only 90.3% of £163,481


Either way, an almost £16,000 increase in the average house price in 11 months is significantly more than most renters can save.

Which is why listening to housing bears is so dangerous.

If you buy a house, and prices fall, the only risk is that you could have possibly bought a bit cheaper. But at least you have a house.

If you delay purchase and prices rise, as they have done, you could be priced out entirely.

The greater risk, for most, is obviously the second one.

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

Joeskeppi wrote: »

Where are you getting 10.6 from?

Edit Oh I see, that's cheating!

It's no such thing. I said since trough, and trough was Feb 09.

westv

Some large variations in the regional figures

East Anglia -8.4%
North West +4.8%

Can anybody explain why, if prices are going up overall, the supply of properties appears to remain greatly depresssed?

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

westv wrote: »

Can anybody explain why, if prices are going up overall, the supply of properties appears to remain greatly depresssed?

Because there is a shortage of housing, overall. (local areas may vary)

Rising prices will not cause a sudden flood of properties onto the market, as mortgage deals nowadays are so much worse. Only those who need to sell are selling. And almost all of those people would need to buy or rent another, so no net gain in housing supply.

But depressed supply will cause continued rises in price.

michaels

Hey - I wonder if Hamish is onto something here.

IN short supply, rising prices areas there are relatively more transactions, in over supply falling prices areas transaction volumes are still negligible - net impact that a sold prices index may diverge significantly from an average house value index (which is not as far as I know compiled at all)

Could anyone do a bit of maths to see whether this could explain the numbers not seeming to match everyone's experience?

Please forgive me if my 'insight' has already been discussed.

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

Because there is a shortage of housing, overall. (local areas may vary)

Rising prices will not cause a sudden flood of properties onto the market, as mortgage deals nowadays are so much worse. Only those who need to sell are selling. And almost all of those people would need to buy or rent another, so no net gain in housing supply.

But depressed supply will cause continued rises in price.

Pete111

Jolly good

If this keeps up I'll have to turf my tenants out (with proper notice given obviously..) and sell up - always promised myself I would flog the flat when 07 peak was regained!

Also, I'm sure I saw a post on an earlier thread (in November?)where Carolt claimed she was looking forward to February so she could wipe that smug grin of Hamishes face with the data. (or words to that effect)

Only 2 days to go. That data is going to have to be pretty bad.....

chucky

Pete111 wrote: »

Jolly good

If this keeps up I'll have to turf my tenants out (with proper notice given obviously..) and sell up - always promised myself I would flog the flat when 07 peak was regained

good shout... one of my tenants leaves next week - i'm calling Foxtons today to get the flat on the market!!!

this could be a nice release of cash... for my next project

Pete111 wrote: »

Also, I'm sure I saw a post on an earlier thread (in November?)where Carolt claimed she was looking forward to February so she could wipe that smug grin of Hamishes face with the data. (or words to that effect)

she discredits herself on a weekly basis - she'll claim she's being bullied or victimised to divert the attention

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

michaels wrote: »

Hey - I wonder if Hamish is onto something here.

IN short supply, rising prices areas there are relatively more transactions, in over supply falling prices areas transaction volumes are still negligible - net impact that a sold prices index may diverge significantly from an average house value index (which is not as far as I know compiled at all)

Could anyone do a bit of maths to see whether this could explain the numbers not seeming to match everyone's experience?

Please forgive me if my 'insight' has already been discussed.

The closest thing to what you're thinking of is probably the RICS report, which polls surveyors as to whether prices are rising or falling in their area. RICS use a wierd model, which reports a net balance of those reporting rises or falls in each area. So if there are 67 surveyors in Cumbria, for example, and 37 report rises, and 30 report falls, they state that the balance is 7 more reporting rises than falls? (I think.... or possibly they convert to percentages first.... it's an odd way of doing it and I haven't got my head around it)

As far as I know though, by regional breakdown, 10/12 regions are showing prices rising. And 12/12 are higher than they were at the bottom.

There will obviously be pockets of underperformance, I'd imagine house prices aren't rising in a small town in the Midlands near some big manufacturing plant thats closed down and made 2000 people redundant, just as there are pockets of overperformance, like Aberdeen rising 19% in 9 months........

But in general terms, we debate the averages, and the averages are not that far off for most people.

doire_2

Is Nationwide only a UK average?