Economic impact of Irrational Fear.....

nembot

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

Leveller posted this in another thread, and it got me thinking.....



Are the vast majority of people really "worried sick about their jobs"?

I'm not..... My wife isn't.... None of my friends are....

Either you have no friends or you're extremely lucky or you're not telling the whole story.

Don't give me this I've seen nothing of the recession, because that is bullsh!t.

Pobby

Hamish, why not toddle along to HPC. They might have you back. Dear, oh dear it`s got to be their turn again.

treliac

Davesnave wrote: »

I don't get this, maybe because I have always had irrational fears.

I feared I'd be no good as a student, but I liked the boy:girl ratio, so I went, stayed 4 years, then did a bit more.

I didn't rate my chances in the profession I chose, but I did that for 33 years and no one said I was pants.

I wasn't sure that I should get married either, but 27 years later, I still seem to be.

I wasn't certain that this would be my 'forever' house, but I bought it anyway.

And so it goes on. Some of us are never sure like you are Hamish, but in the end we decide to do something, secure in the knowledge that to do nothing is 'something' too.:o

PS. I may be getting a little bit p1ssed. It will be clearer tomorrow, perhaps.

You're perfectly clear. You're a lovely, perceptive man. You always have interesting things to say that make good sense.

The 'irrational fears' are down to a lack of self-belief and it's something that besets the most intelligent people.

However, you've gone ahead and made the best decisions you could, at different points in your life. Anyway, nothing is for ever and we can all take a different course if we need to.

It's a pity that those who aren't so reflective and who go through life with an air of arrogance, so often push themselves forward into public life even though they're likely to be motivated by self-interest and are frequently not the best people to serve others.

P.S. I think your wife is a very lucky lady!

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

nembot wrote: »

Don't give me this I've seen nothing of the recession, because that is bullsh!t.

I've seen plenty of it. I know 3 people that lost their jobs. They were all back in work within 90 days though.

Aberdeen unemployment soared as well. It went from 1.6% before the recession, to 3.5% at it peak, before starting to drop back down the last time I checked.

As I keep saying, the chances of actually losing a job are miniscule.

Not saying it doesn't happen, of course it does, just that as the chances are so small, why spend so much time worrying about it?

Makes no sense to me.

mynameisthehulk

Is every internet forum the same? You go on looking for some decent information but you get a ghey in/fight between the same 5 people!

Davesnave

treliac wrote: »

P.S. I think your wife is a very lucky lady!

You are very kind, Treliac. My DW would say that caution makes me infuriatingly indecisive, but luckily, she shares the same traits. We both grew up enjoying the fruits of living with at least one impulsive parent.;)

Davesnave

mynameisthehulk wrote: »

Is every internet forum the same? You go on looking for some decent information but you get a ghey in/fight between the same 5 people!

No, this forum is full of special people. Even when we use just one of our identities, we add up to much more than five.;) (There's at least double that number.....probably.)

It depends what kind of information you're after. You'll notice that this forum's title begins with the word 'debate,' but this isn't the House of Commons, so there's no one to shout 'Order!' Just as well, really, as the HofC can be a bit tedious, unless there's a bun fight. Who listens to 'Yesterday in Parliament?' One of my relatives does his best with that, but they stick him on at some unearthly hour because no one wants to know.:rotfl:

Anyway, 'facts' and 'evidence' are bandied-about daily in here, but they are not the same species as those which are the answer to questions like: 'Which plunge grommet do I need for the left flange of the alternator on a 1957 BSA Bantam?'

If you want that kind of fact, you could look in Greenfingered where, only last night, I was trying to draw a clear distinction between Cydonia oblongata and Chaenomeles japonica, but I'm not sure if that would help you much.:o

chucky

treliac wrote: »

P.S. I think your wife is a very lucky lady!

no she isn't!!! she hasn't met me!!! that was a joke by the way

treliac wrote: »

The 'irrational fears' are down to a lack of self-belief and it's something that besets the most intelligent people.

this is a very important point that you've made Treliac, the reverse of this could be interpreted as arrogance though.

vivatifosi

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

But the reality is that I know, as I would hope everyone else does, that 97% of the people working full time before a recession will still be working during and after it.

So the chances of losing a job in a recession and being unable to find another in a reasonable time are vanishingly small.

There's an issue Hamish that I don't think you've addressed. While people generally will find another job, they won't necessarily find one on the same terms and conditions. Max's job search was a good example of this. He tried, worked damn hard, got another job, but not on the same terms and conditions. My own situation is the same. I diversified to cover two industries with my business and they both got hit - one by the recession, one by crunching credit.

Structural unemployment - where industry dies or moves away - is also a particularly difficult issue. Look at the areas where ships used to be built or where coal or tin mining was the main industry. It takes decades to regenerate these areas, if they can ever regain their previous strengths. In the meantime those who do have jobs in a downturn, may rightly worry about what will happen if their job goes away because finding another job in those situations is a nightmare. They may not be able to up sticks and move elsewhere to get employment because they have children in school or their house is worth little and they won't be able to afford the same level of housing elsewhere.

Look ahead, 20 maybe 50 years, maybe further ahead and ask yourself what Aberdeen will be like when the oil has run out and the industry has moved away. What will happen to the younger members of your family or house prices then?

We all have to cut our cloth according to our means. We don't all lay awake at night and worry about money, but that doesn't mean we're all upbeat about the economy either, there's plenty of middle ground in uncertain times and people would be very lucky to go through their whole lives on their own, personal bull-run.

Generali

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

I think that, objectively speaking, if unemployment rises from 5% to 8%, then only an additional 3% of people who worked before the recession will not be working during it.

The reality is that only a very small percentage of people will be impacted.

So the overwhelmingly vast majority should feel no more or less confident than they did before the recession.

There is a bit more to it than that as there is the problem of underemployment and pay cuts, either directly or via the loss of overtime.

For example:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/6730888/Pay-cuts-helped-save-two-million-from-unemployment.html

Record numbers of people have seen their pay frozen or cut as firms fight the recession and stave off redundancies, according to internal Treasury figures.
Others have voluntarily moved to part-time positions rather than lose their jobs, with official statistics showing a record one million people who want to work full time are now unable to secure anything other than reduced hours work.

On an annecdotal level, a painter and decorator friend during the last recession was struggling to find enough work. The reason? Gangs of workers coming from the North to the SE that were prepared to work for £40 per person per day.

Then there are things like this from March this year:

http://www.retail-week.com/john-lewis-staff-face-bonus-cuts/2004245.article

The John Lewis Partnership, owner of the John Lewis department store group and Waitrose supermarket chain, employs 70,000 staff and last year gave bonuses equating to 20 per cent of their salaries.
This year it could fall to 12 per cent or lower as the group’s profits are expected to fall by 30 per cent.

Now if you spend your bonus in advance you are reckless IMO but many do which can mean two problems, a cut in income and debts that are hard to service.

These are all things that cause genuine suffering to individuals and families but are hard to capture in official statistics, largely IMO because the Government (any Government) doesn't want to give the Opposition a stick to beat it with.

I agree with you that the recession won't touch the majority. It will impact on the income of a pretty large minority, at a guess perhaps 40% of the population.