Economic impact of Irrational Fear.....

sock.puppet

Who's your puppetmaster hamish? Is it brodders?

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

sock.puppet wrote: »

Who's your puppetmaster hamish? Is it brodders?

Can't you hurry up and get yourself PPR-ed (again) or something.:rolleyes:

fc123

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

I posted a quote from a user who stated, "the vast majority of people are worried sick about their jobs".

The "vast majority" are "worried sick"?

That doesn't sound like irrational levels of fear to you?

Originally Posted by leveller2911
The vast majority of people are worried sick about their jobs and as such the Housing market aint going up for at least a year or more......

Okay Okay Hamish.....the devil is in the detail.......:D

Leveller thinks the above, you don't. Worried sick and irrational fear...could crossover meaning wise?? Maybe.

You are Aberdeen/Scotland, I am SE and London...where is Leveller from?

fc123

Leveller is E Sussex...and I am too..sort of.

Graham_Devon

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

Are the vast majority of people really "worried sick about their jobs"?

I'm not..... My wife isn't.... None of my friends are....

Strangely amusing.

You were, only a few days ago, suggesting that a 100k savings pot was merely an emergency stash.

Yet you wrote all that about not being worried about jobs?

Bizzare. That's all I can say.

Generali

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

Leveller posted this in another thread, and it got me thinking.....



Are the vast majority of people really "worried sick about their jobs"?

I'm not..... My wife isn't.... None of my friends are....

Oh sure, we all know that the employment market is slower than it used to be, I no longer get head hunted once a month, it's now once every couple of months, for example. So whilst I have no doubt that it would take longer to find a job if made redundant, I am sure I would manage just fine.

But the reality is that I know, as I would hope everyone else does, that 97% of the people working full time before a recession will still be working during and after it.

So the chances of losing a job in a recession and being unable to find another in a reasonable time are vanishingly small.

Yet some people, particularly the more pessimistic, seem to be very susceptible to this fear and allow it to overule common sense, especially in terms of spending habits, which if enough of them do likewise eventually makes it more likely they will lose their job.

Being in a recession does not make me change my spending habits, as objectively I know the chances are I'll be fine. But how many people think like that? And how many people succumb to irrational fear?

I think it depends what sector you are in. It's not a good time to be an unemployed banker for example. A mate of mine had to move from Sydney to London and then on to Edinburgh to find work and even then the only thing he could get was very entry level and paid accordingly.

I think it's the same in every recession. For example in the early 1980s, I suspect most bankers didn't have a problem but it would be a lousy time to be out of work if you were a factory worker.

sjaypink

I think its a !!!!!! time to be public sector..... don't know anyone who feels ok about being LG, nhs, actually, just a thought, teacher friend seems happy.... :A

...tradesman... retail.... manafacturing.... :eek:

Hmm, who is feeling confident ATM? What is it you do hamish?

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

sjaypink wrote: »

I think its a !!!!!! time to be public sector..... don't know anyone who feels ok about being LG, nhs, actually, just a thought, teacher friend seems happy.... :A

...tradesman... retail.... manafacturing.... :eek:

Hmm, who is feeling confident ATM?

I think that, objectively speaking, if unemployment rises from 5% to 8%, then only an additional 3% of people who worked before the recession will not be working during it.

The reality is that only a very small percentage of people will be impacted.

So the overwhelmingly vast majority should feel no more or less confident than they did before the recession.

Davesnave

I don't get this, maybe because I have always had irrational fears.

I feared I'd be no good as a student, but I liked the boy:girl ratio, so I went, stayed 4 years, then did a bit more.

I didn't rate my chances in the profession I chose, but I did that for 33 years and no one said I was pants.

I wasn't sure that I should get married either, but 27 years later, I still seem to be.

I wasn't certain that this would be my 'forever' house, but I bought it anyway.

And so it goes on. Some of us are never sure like you are Hamish, but in the end we decide to do something, secure in the knowledge that to do nothing is 'something' too.:o

PS. I may be getting a little bit p1ssed. It will be clearer tomorrow, perhaps.

sjaypink

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

I think that, objectively speaking, if unemployment rises from 5% to 8%, then only an additional 3% of people who worked before the recession will not be working during it.

The reality is that only a very small percentage of people will be impacted.

So the overwhelmingly vast majority should feel no more or less confident than they did before the recession.

psychologically, the actual (projected) stats mean nothing- its not so much irrational- more like risk assessment IYSWIM

if we all knew that there were a problem in just one area, eg national trend towards vegetarianism (random!)- then just those employed- farmers & butchers- there would be fearful of that 3% stat...

...but no-one knows. We know the gov needs to cut back, where, we don't know, hence everyone employed by gov is likely to be fearful to some extent

We know retail is changing (internet etc), this will suffer on the whole

Service -socilising, hols- industries will suffer as a result of the above

Possibly tradesman are feeling more confident about 2010..... well, couldn't be worse than 2008/9... could it?!