It's official: Property has risen this year and is set to climb by 15% within 2 years

mrstilton

Pont wrote: »

I bought three months ago and secured a good property in a 'nice' area at 25% below the asking price - I'm happy (for now). However, looking at the local market, Welsh Marches, and talking to local people, I can see no prospect of any price rises in the near future. I would hazard a guess that there are still further price drops to come as there is no confidence in the market. Everybody is running scared of potential interest rate rises and of loosing their jobs. No security = no growth.

Also we're all more savy these days and are aware that somebody (us) will have to pay for massive government overspending during the past 10 years or so. The days have long gone when we can get talked into rejuvenating the market by the government of the day. I believe it's going to get a lot worse before it gets better, simply because the populace doesn't believe the hype anymore.

Oh I know Welsh Marches, I rather like that part of the country. But it is true that property is inexpensive there and growth would indeed be slow. You were lucky to get a 25% discount on your place but I expect the price was inflated when it was marketed. May I ask what you paid for your place?

mrstilton

stueyhants wrote: »

IR are at record lows, affordability is stretching to breaking point, wages are flat, banks are not lending at the same volumes as before and will not for the foreseable future and the UK governement is technically bankrupt but has so far managed to avoid the IMF because it's making up money via QE. With all this you think house prices are going to rise, laughable I'm afraid.
That said, I don't expect a massive crash dowwards either. Bumping along the bottom for 5+ years.

The report the OP posted was also in the Independant Newspaper.

We can all try and hazard a guess but none of us are experts, and even the experts get it wrong sometimes. I think where the problem lies is that many people on these money forums only relate news items to their own areas in which they live. For example, London and the south east of England always recovers first from any downturn, and so for those people in other parts of the UK they can't see it, because it isn't on their own doorstep.

One cannot generalise and make sweeping statements about Britain as it varies so much from area to area, and even street to street. In some parts of northern England you can buy up whole streets for about £20,000! So people living close-by would not comprehend that £20,000 wouldn't buy you a garage in London or the south east.

I think the newspapers are also biased and only tend to report on the south east. Just as they do the weather. They tend to ignore the north and try to brush over it as quickly as possible. Shameful government!

googler

Continuing the example I gave earlier - with a 16% rise averaged over all properties, if the price ranges are examined with regard to no. of sales and average prices;

Below £100k - sales down 20%, average price down £9000
£100-£150k - sales down 16%, avge price down £2000
£150-£200k - sales down 2%, avge price down £2000
£200-£300k - sales steady, avge price up £12000
£300-400k - sales up 93%, avge price up £3000
£400-£500k - sales up £166%, avge price up £4000
£500-£1mill - sales up 220%
£1mill+ -

Can this be seen as anything other than healthier sales at the top end distorting the figures, when everything below £200k has sales numbers down and average prices down?

Even at this local level (county-wide) there's regional variation, so what relevance do any national averages have?

stueyhants

googler wrote: »

Continuing the example I gave earlier - with a 16% rise averaged over all properties, if the price ranges are examined with regard to no. of sales and average prices;

Below £100k - sales down 20%, average price down £9000
£100-£150k - sales down 16%, avge price down £2000
£150-£200k - sales down 2%, avge price down £2000
£200-£300k - sales steady, avge price up £12000
£300-400k - sales up 93%, avge price up £3000
£400-£500k - sales up £166%, avge price up £4000
£500-£1mill - sales up 220%
£1mill+ -

Can this be seen as anything other than healthier sales at the top end distorting the figures, when everything below £200k has sales numbers down and average prices down?

Even at this local level (county-wide) there's regional variation, so what relevance do any national averages have?

The Nationwide and Halifax indices apply a mix adjustment factor to compensate for the different types of houses sold. This factor trys to prevent the 'average' house price from being skewed by either a lot of smaller cheaper houses or a lot of higher price detached houses.

That said, the adjustment factor does not take in to account the quality of a house. As we all know two houses on the same road may appear to be the same (i.e 4 bedroom, detached, garage etc). But this doesn't tell you if one is imaculate inside, if one is south facing and whether one has pub next door.

IMO part of the so called rise in the last year is down to a raising of the quality of the houses being sold. Problem houses are just sitting on the market for 12+ months, whereas quality houses are subject to bidding wars. Back in 2006/7 eveything would have sold.

rumbaba

googler wrote: »

Continuing the example I gave earlier - with a 16% rise averaged over all properties, if the price ranges are examined with regard to no. of sales and average prices;

Below £100k - sales down 20%, average price down £9000
£100-£150k - sales down 16%, avge price down £2000
£150-£200k - sales down 2%, avge price down £2000
£200-£300k - sales steady, avge price up £12000
£300-400k - sales up 93%, avge price up £3000
£400-£500k - sales up £166%, avge price up £4000
£500-£1mill - sales up 220%
£1mill+ -

Can this be seen as anything other than healthier sales at the top end distorting the figures, when everything below £200k has sales numbers down and average prices down?

Even at this local level (county-wide) there's regional variation, so what relevance do any national averages have?

Going by the statistics you've quoted it proves that there is a strong north/south divide. We all know that most property up north is far cheaper than it is in the south, and those figures reflect that. Properties up north have been hit the hardest, whilse properties down south hold their price much better.

For example, a £350k house down south would have risen this year. But that same house in an equivelant area up north would fetch perhaps £180k, hence the variations.

jkc_2

in my area 2 bed houses are going for 40 to 45 grand is that a rise I think not.

mrstilton

jkc wrote: »

in my area 2 bed houses are going for 40 to 45 grand is that a rise I think not.

Wherever do you live?!

jkc_2

ah ah that would be telling, but I do not agree with the increase in house price figures, its a scam to try and get people buying again.

tb1105

I live near Salisbury, Wiltshire and have been tracking properties on property bee over the past 12 months. The average 3 bed dropped from £190k to £170k mark but has now risent o asking prices of £180k - £200k and most are selling within 6 - 8 weeks xx

OzzMosiz_2

I've just bought a property in Wiltshire (Swindon area) in the past week
and managed to get a detached property for the same price as my previous similar house I bought in 2001! (this one needs cosmetic work inside though).


I fully expect prices to dip probably another 10-15% over the next 2-3 years though.