Support grows for 70% crash

nollag2006

That's life buddy - its kinda tough.

Sounds to me like you need to get a better paying job, and start saving hard for a deposit.

Buying your first home is never easy - there is little point in railing against the rising tide of the market.

Percy1983

I do accept its life and i am working hard and have a good paying job etc and I will get there, but it seems the people who support the rise are the people who jumped in when it was a lot easier.

When my dad bought a house it was 3 times his salary, its now closer to 6 times my salary, I know its not an exact science but that does equate to it being twice as hard to afford.

I also hav to think if I get a mortgage now that its going to have to rise as interest rates can't stay like this forever.

Like I say I am not alone with this problem, but yet again i have to ask, who actually benefits from house prices rising? why does anybody want it to happen?

I can see logical arguements to how they could rise or fall (and yes I want the fall to be true), I suppose its 2 questions, what do you think will happen and what do you want to happen?

StevieJ

Percy1983 wrote: »

I do accept its life and i am working hard and have a good paying job etc and I will get there, but it seems the people who support the rise are the people who jumped in when it was a lot easier.

When my dad bought a house it was 3 times his salary, its now closer to 6 times my salary, I know its not an exact science but that does equate to it being twice as hard to afford.

I also hav to think if I get a mortgage now that its going to have to rise as interest rates can't stay like this forever.

Like I say I am not alone with this problem, but yet again i have to ask, who actually benefits from house prices rising? why does anybody want it to happen?

I can see logical arguements to how they could rise or fall (and yes I want the fall to be true), I suppose its 2 questions, what do you think will happen and what do you want to happen?

No it doesn't.

Percy1983

I will add that if you apply indexing to my current wage I am earning more than he was then.

The point I am making, it the rise which has happened is out of proportion and has made it harder for some and froze other out of the market.

However you look at it, its harder for somebody to afford a house now than it was 20 years ago.

So the reality is we need prices to come back down to bring them back inline.

As you may guess I have a good reason to support a fall, but I am still waiting for someody to tell me why they support a rise?

StevieJ

Percy1983 wrote: »

I will add that if you apply indexing to my current wage I am earning more than he was then.

The point I am making, it the rise which has happened is out of proportion and has made it harder for some and froze other out of the market.

However you look at it, its harder for somebody to afford a house now than it was 20 years ago.

So the reality is we need prices to come back down to bring them back inline.

As you may guess I have a good reason to support a fall, but I am still waiting for someody to tell me why they support a rise?

Again not true, I bought around 20 years ago, interest rates doubled from 7.5 % to 15% and house prices had previosly rocketed as well, I don't think you could have chosen a worse example

nollag2006

Percy1983 wrote: »

However you look at it, its harder for somebody to afford a house now than it was 20 years ago.

So the reality is we need prices to come back down to bring them back inline.

Simply not backed up by the facts:

Halifax UK house price earnings ratio in Q3 1989 was 4.85, in Q3 2009 it was 4.02

Source: Regional Affordability spreadsheet in http://www.lloydsbankinggroup.com/media1/research/halifax_hpi.asp


Add to that mortgage rates of 12 -15% in 1989, and its got to be clear to even the blindest, that houses are now far more affordable than twenty years ago.

You need to take off those rose tinted glasses.

House prices are likely to keep on rising in the medium term - stop whining and go out and get yourself that pay rise and deposit before the market pulls away from you

Graham_Devon

StevieJ wrote: »

Again not true, I bought around 20 years ago, interest rates doubled from 7.5 % to 15% and house prices had previosly rocketed as well, I don't think you could have chosen a worse example

As chucky informed me earlier, base rates have little to do with how much you are paying

chucky

Graham_Devon wrote: »

As chucky informed me earlier, base rates have little to do with how much you are paying

Ahh, now nollag, who thanked him, is using base rates to prove his argument this way?!

now, now Graham - not 20 years ago!!!
don't be clever it doesn't suit you

here's what i actually said

chucky wrote: »

no. you missed the point again - you're saying that people are paying their mortgage at 0.5% and there is a direct correlation between BOE and mortgage rates. that's complete nonsense.
it's been explained to you so many times but you still don't get it.

there was more of a relationship in the 1990s
there is little if no relationship in todays economic climate

Percy1983

I suppose I am looking at local economics, yes if you take averages accross the country maybe its not changed much. We haven't all got london wages unfortunately and houses have risen sharply in my local area.

I will admit I am completely dismissing the current interest rate, surely we can all see that it can't stay so low, if anything the longer it stays low the more likely it is to rise heavily in the future. This is the reason I am not aiming for a mortgage I can't just afford now, but when the interest rate rises again.

Yes I am moaning about it, sorry. Stop telling me to get more money, I am on a good wage and I am working hard to jump on before it gets worse.

I am more concerned for people who aren't in as good a situation as me, they are going to be forced to pay rent (I mean somebody elses mortgage), due to what is an out of contol economy due to bankers and polititions who clearly have no idea what they are doing.

macaque_2

nollag2006 wrote: »

Simply not backed up by the facts:

Halifax UK house price earnings ratio in Q3 1989 was 4.85, in Q3 2009 it was 4.02

Source: Regional Affordability spreadsheet in http://www.lloydsbankinggroup.com/media1/research/halifax_hpi.asp


Add to that mortgage rates of 12 -15% in 1989, and its got to be clear to even the blindest, that houses are now far more affordable than twenty years ago.

You need to take off those rose tinted glasses.

House prices are likely to keep on rising in the medium term - stop whining and go out and get yourself that pay rise and deposit before the market pulls away from you

I love the way stats can be used to turn reality on it's head. Have a look at the actual wording on the Halifax chart:

House Price - Earnings ratio (All houses, All buyers)

The crafty little tinkers at the Halifax have rigged the stats. Why didn't they compare all houses will all incomes or average house price with average income. We all know the answer.

By choosing buyers incomes versus house prices Halifax have used a completely artificial sample. Over the past 2 years, mortgages have been rationed to people with large deposits or high incomes. In other words, the more parlous the state of the market, the better looking, the Halifax stats.

Here's the real truth.
The average income today is around £25k and the average house price is £167,664. In other words around 7 times average income. And that is at a time when incomes are falling and jobs are evaporating.