Support grows for 70% crash

chucky

[QUOTE=macaque;28177155This cocktail of defences sounds a bit like:[/QUOTE]
what xmas presents did you get Macaque?
are you online with the PS3 yet?

macaque_2

chucky wrote: »

what xmas presents did you get Macaque?
are you online with the PS3 yet?

A jigsaw, a little model of three monkeys (see no evil etc), a book by Richard Attenborough, a smoothie maker and a scarf. A good result all round!

nickj_2

i doubt we've learnt any lessons from the last couple of years
the govt should have had alarm bells ringing several years ago when the average house price went thru the £100k mark and personal debt reached £1trillion - you do not have to be a mathmatical genius to work out that people were borrowing unrealistic amounts just to get on the housing ladder and thn had no money to live without borrowing on credit . it inevitably had to end , the govt and boe should have started to raise interest rates to take the steam out of the housing market , banks should have stuck to the 3.5x salary for mortgages , if people couldn't afford them then maybe the prices would have stayed at a realistic amount for the average person .
i can't see how we can have got over the worst financial crisis , they are just living in fantasy land if they think its all over ,

Jonbvn

macaque wrote: »

I have not said that at any time. The 70% club's official position is that there will 70% falls over the next 10-20 years.

Historically, such a fall over the longer term is more ludicrous that the likelihood of a 70% fall by Xmas.

Of course, if this is the new paradigm......:rolleyes:

julieq

Especially if they've gone up 200% in the same 10-20 year period.

nollag2006

Hmmm ... over a 20 year time horizon a lot of things could happen. Its a pity these bears don't have the courage to admit that prices are now rising, and the chances of that 70% fall off the 2007 peak (soon to be reached again - end of 2010, I'd say) is now an increasingly distant prospect.

Never mind - keep sticking your head in the sand and reading Moneyweek if it gives you solace.

SilverStandard

nollag2006 wrote: »

Hmmm ... over a 20 year time horizon a lot of things could happen. Its a pity these bears don't have the courage to admit that prices are now rising, and the chances of that 70% fall off the 2007 peak (soon to be reached again - end of 2010, I'd say) is now an increasingly distant prospect.

Never mind - keep sticking your head in the sand and reading Moneyweek if it gives you solace.

Nollag2006 Be careful how you use that head in the sand saying if you think prices are going up from here.

If anyone really thinks prices can possibly keep going up next year then they truely have got their head in the sand :T

Radiantsoul

macaque wrote: »

I have not said that at any time. The 70% club's official position is that there will 70% falls over the next 10-20 years.

That is such a long time frame though...
Are you talking about price's adjusted for inflation or as a proportion of wages?
I can see that it is possible that housing might consume less national income in a generations time, although 70% seems fanciful.

nollag2006

SilverStandard wrote: »

If anyone really thinks prices can possibly keep going up next year then they truely have got their head in the sand :T

Simply not true, plenty of pundits (or VI's as the HPC muppets like to say) have called the bottom of the market, with the latest one being the CEBR:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/6890962/Buyers-priced-out-of-the-UK-housing-market.html


Good article here from the BBC site in early December:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/8386796.stm

Interesting, and entirely predictable, that only Jonathan Davis of HPC, and Ed Stansfied of Capital Economics are predicting price falls - the same mantra both have been repeating over the past ten years. (Or do I recall CE recanting on that in Summer 2007??)

:rotfl::rotfl:

Percy1983

I don't post in here often, so do so at my own risk.

It is possible that house prices will fall further.

More importantly as a young person who wants to buy a house I really need them to fall, house prices have risen a lot faster than wages have. Its great for all those people in my area who paid £45k for a house its now worth £120k. But on the flip side how the hell am I meant to buy at 120K?

We are looking at a whole generation who can't afford houses, the only people who can are the ones with houses.

So more importantly, why the hell do people want them to keep going up?