RICS: Rents Will Rise Next Year

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

From the Nationwide link above.......

"“One of the factors helping prices to stabilise in 2009 is the shortage of properties available for sale. In the short run, the supply of homes on the market is mainly determined by factors such as potential sellers’ confidence in market conditions, labour market turnover or financial pressures to sell among existing homeowners. Over the long run, however, the supply-demand balance depends critically on the rate of housing construction in relation to the rate of household formation.

“The future level of household formation is a matter of tremendous uncertainty, as it depends on factors that are difficult to estimate such as birth rates, life expectancy, net migration and lifestyle preferences. Of these, net migration is one of the most important and uncertain factors. After the expansion of the European Union in 2004, net migration increased substantially, as workers in the new member states were attracted to the UK by strong labour demand and a high level of Sterling. Given the downturn in the UK economy and the fall in the Sterling exchange rate, net migration seems likely to slow somewhat from recent levels, although it will probably remain positive given the openness of the UK economy and labour market relative to other countries.

“The central assumption from the Department of Communities and Local Government is that long term net migration will be 171,500 per year, resulting in an annual increase in the number of households in England of 252,000 once other factors are taken into account. Even if one were to assume zero net migration, however, the number of households is still projected to expand by an average of 153,000 units per year through to 2031.

Whatever the true number is, it is almost certain that current levels of housing construction have fallen far below future levels of household formation (chart 3). Based on recent levels of housing starts, it looks likely that only around 100,000 homes will be built during 2009, which would represent by far the lowest level on record.

As it is likely to take time for the economy and housing construction to recover to pre-crisis levels, the potential exists for a considerable housing shortfall to develop over the next few years. This would be on top of the shortfall that already started to develop in 2004, when even boom-time levels of construction failed to keep pace with household growth.

Spartacus_Mills

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

Thanks for doing that and all, but I find it frustrating that the muppets who chose not to pay attention the first few times it was posted and discussed in depth, now insist on trying to divert from discussing the facts by questioning the source.

They obviously are trying to score cheap points by hoping we now cannot find sources for old material. It's quite pathetic, so I don't feel like humoring them by wasting my time digging around for old sources.

Better they learn how to use google for themselves.

:rotfl::rotfl::rotfl::rotfl::rotfl::rotfl:

Pay attention !!! This is not school. Most people here do not obsessively read every post. LOL.

Perhaps we should all take an exam in the garbage you post :rotfl::rotfl:

Not everyone stalks this board like you do. I do not think it unreasonable to ask for evidence. Nothing to do with point scoring, once you bother with a source then we can read it and deconstruct it if we wish.

I am not going to google for everything you claim simply because you are too lazy or incompetent to be bothered yourself. How the hell is anyone supposed to know you have posted the facts in the dim or distant past.

The only one on either side of the debate on this forum who is bothered with scoring points appears to be you and you are the only one who resorts to personal insults. Enjoy 2010 Hamish. I certainly will.

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

Joeskeppi wrote: »

I know what you mean but to be fair I don't think those 2 were around when it was first linked, but you're right it is commonly accepted now. It's a bit like me saying the earth is round and then being asked for my source.

Agreed that it is commonly accepted. No forecast is ever perfect, but these are official projections and the best forecasts we have to work from.

As for Spartacus, he joined this site before I did, so if he wants to act like a rabid little Terrier biting at ankles, then he should at least pay attention to previous extensive discussions of the topic. It's been discussed at length on hpc as well.

Spartacus_Mills

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

Agreed that it is commonly accepted. No forecast is ever perfect, but these are official projections and the best forecasts we have to work from.

As for Spartacus, he joined this site before I did, so if he wants to act like a rabid little Terrier biting at ankles, then he should at least pay attention to previous extensive discussions of the topic. It's been discussed at length on hpc as well.

Yes I did join the site before you did, so what, Joeskeppi is quite correct. and it still does not mean I have read or followed every debate in this forum indeed I rarely posted here until relatively recently but once again you are throwing up a smokescreen, descending to ad hominems and taking the subject off topic. Grow up.

Graham_Devon

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

rabid little Terrier biting at ankles

Use your own lines.

And if you have to use mine, at least use them in context.

Spartacus_Mills

Graham_Devon wrote: »

Use your own lines.

And if you have to use mine, at least use them in context.

He is not only too lazy to cite any references, he is also too lazy to come up with any original flames. I thought it was quite good for Hamish TBH, far better than his usual, well I could not really call them flames, more efforts.

Now I know why.

System

Spartacus_Mills wrote: »

He is not only too lazy to cite any references, he is also too lazy to come up with any original flames. I thought it was quite good for Hamish TBH, far better than his usual, well I could not really call them flames, more efforts.

Now I know why.

Come on now, you can't complain about scoring points and then type that afterwards.

Spartacus_Mills

Joeskeppi wrote: »

Come on now, you can't complain about scoring points and then type that afterwards.

Fair comment Joe, Sauce for the goose and all that.

However two wrongs do not make a right so I will desist in future.

housesitter

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

From the Nationwide link above.......

It missed out greed as a factor for not selling over the supposed losses many have suffered due to price falls.


The market is tough. I'm a FTB waiting on my sale going through which is stagnating due to the chain not being able to find anything suitable.
For me to, there is little choice but to wait it out.

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

bernard_shaw wrote: »

OMG! When did they announce a moratorium on house building?

As the Nationwide article states, there does not need to be a moratorium on building. Merely a large shortage of houses being built versus households being created.

Subtract 100,000 new houses from the 250,000 new households, and you have the annual housing shortage.

BTW, "numerous reports" of housing shortage? I haven't read any. Do you have any links?

Try google. The obvious ones are the Barker report, and the MIles report. There are other more recent ones as well. Including one this year, posted on this site, which identified the existing shortage as a million units.

With regards to impending shortages, here's a couple more as well....

Britain is heading for a property shortage of more than a million homes by 2022 unless the current rate of housebuilding is dramatically increased, according to reports from the Joseph Rowntree Foundation (JRF).

The evidence, being presented at the Foundation’s Centenary Housing Conference in London, reveals that the supply of housing is already falling behind demand faster than previously recognised.

http://www.jrf.org.uk/media-centre/shortage-homes-over-next-20-years-threatens-deepening-housing-crisis

Government projections indicate the population will top 70 million by 2031, as a result of increased fertility, life expectancy, and net migration. The number of households is projected to grow by 252,000 every year up to 27.8 million by 2031 (an increase of 6.3 million or 29%). This is not solely the result of increases in population – even without those, the number of households could be projected to grow by 36,000 households per annum due to changes in marital status and household formation. For instance, one-person households are projected to increase by 163,000 per year, equating to two-thirds of the increase in households. By 2031, 18 per cent of the total population of England is projected to live alone (compared with 13 per cent in 2006).

But over the last two years, there has been a sharp decline in the number of homes being built and demand for new properties has plunged. On an annual basis, an estimated 87,190 new homes were started in the 12 months to June 2009 - down 41 per cent compared with the 12 months to June 2008. The figure is also little more than a third of the government's target of 240,000 new homes a year.

If house building continues at current pace (87,190 a year), in a worst-case scenario the UK will be short 4.2m homes by 2031. Even anticipating a recovery in house building to 149,200 a year, (the average number of new homes started since 1990) the country will be short of a staggering 2.7m homes.

http://blog.!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!/2009/11/housing-shortage-could-top-27m-by-2031.html