Standard Life Shares

ReportInvestor

Mixed broker views - Yahoo link

"UBS has started coverage on life insurer Standard Life with a "neutral" recommendation, citing change to the business mix with a strong improvement in life sales margins.

The Swiss broker also set a 290p price target on the shares.

Lehman Brothers was more cautious, rating the shares "underweight" with a 262p price target, arguing that while Standard Life has come a long way much of the recoveryhas been priced in."

## - RI - ## UBS (along with Merril Lynch) advised the Standard board on the 210-270p price range that resulted in the 230p initial offer price.

Interesting that both started with a "neutral" recommendation (in spite of their highish target prices). I guess that's the norm when you have been advisers to the company for the IPO .

Standard was down 1p @ 259.5 at 11.15 a.m.

bugbod

ReportInvestor wrote:

Mixed broker views - Yahoo link



Lehman Brothers was more cautious, rating the shares "underweight" with a 262p price target, arguing that while Standard Life has come a long way much of the recoveryhas been priced in."
15 a.m.

They hit £2.62 today.:)

Gorgeous_George

According to Yahoo the share price spiked at 267p but looks like closing around 262p. All in all I'm confident we'll hit 270p next week and maybe higher before they join the FTSE-100.

Still planning to bail out at 270p.



GG

Yorkshireman_3

Gorgeous_George wrote:

According to Yahoo the share price spiked at 267p but looks like closing around 262p. All in all I'm confident we'll hit 270p next week and maybe higher before they join the FTSE-100.

Still planning to bail out at 270p.



GG

Good luck if u do George -- stick to ur plan -- i gather thts the way to make money hehehe

ReportInvestor

As the share price creeps again up to 263.75p it is as well to remind ourselves of a couple of possible clouds on the horizon.

1) Interest rates are now expected to rise further after August house price data from Nationwide continued to be positive.

2) Foreign & Colonial has reduced its equity holdings
"...Paul Niven, F&C's head of asset allocation, said: "Three years of equity gains have been driven by improving corporate fundamentals. That appears close to an end. We expect a re-emergence of growth concerns in the near term and markets appear overly bullish at present...."

3) September is historically the worst month for equities.

Stop press - now 266.5p another closing high .

How long before we bid farewell to GG?

Gorgeous_George

I took delivery of a new car today for the first time With just over 2,000 shares, an increase of 50p over the discounted flotation price will give me £1,000 back into my savings. I just hope they rise a touch more so I can sell and be satisfied having stuck to my original plan.

I might 'advise' Mrs GG to keep her free shares.



GG

bugbod

LONDON (ShareCast) - This week sees the insurers full steam ahead into the blue chip index as the FTSE Quarterly Reshuffle takes place.
Standard Life (LSE: SL.L - news)
and Resolution are both expected to enter the index, as Schroders (LSE: SDR.L - news) and Johnson Matthey (LSE: JMAT.L - news) drop out. The final result will accounted for after the close on Wednesday and become effective two weeks later.

So is it likely to be worth hanging on for a fortnight?

ReportInvestor

It's difficult to say if this will make any difference.

IMHO it's a cast iron certainty that Standard will go into the FTSE in September, but everyone knows that, including market makers and other investors - so they may have already pushed up the price in advance of forced tracker fund purchases.

What I don't know is whether the FTSE 100 tracker funds are able to buy in advance of the official announcement. [i.e. have they already been buying?] I guess it would depend on the individual manager's contract.

Anyone have any City knowledge of this?

ReportInvestor

I thought I'd get together the broker/analyst comment we have had so far.

"Roman Cizdyn, analyst at Oriel Securities, said investors should pay no more than 225p for shares in Standard Life"

"Barclays' stockbroking arm is sceptical that Standard Life chief executive Sandy Crombie will be able to maintain the firm's 4% dividend. And Killik analyst Graham Neale said flotation could be followed by a massive exodus of customers, who have been waiting for their free shares before dumping the company from their policy portfolios."

"Richard Hunter, head of UK equities at Hargreaves Landsdown, said the prospect of a takeover was crucial: "The stock should open at a reasonably decent premium given the institutional demand. These guys have to get Standard Life into their portfolios. But I still think it's a hold, firstly for the loyalty bonus, and then because of the likelihood of takeover. I can't see this company being independent in two years' time."

.....The shares were `priced cheaply to make sure they had a good market performance and the shares have further to go,'' said Youssef Ziai, an analyst at Williams de Broe in London, who has a ``buy'' rating on the stock......"

Broker/anlayst - recommendation - target price - date made - (SL share price at the time)

Exane BNP Paribas - underperform - 223p - 17 July 06 - 241p

Deutsche Bank - hold - 251p - 11 July 06 - (240p)

Sanford C Bernstein - long-term fair-value - 260p - pre-flotation

Morgan Stanley – underweight – 262p - 17 Aug 06 - 240p
Lehman Brothers – Underweight – 262p - 31 Aug 06 - 263p

Evolution – buy – 280p

Merrill Lynch – neutral – 284p - 23 Aug 06 - 256p
UBS – neutral – 290p - 31 Aug 06 - 263p

Cazenove - outperform - ??? - 22 Aug 06 - 254p

ING – buy – 299p - 10 Aug 06 - 251p

Mr. Red Braces himself seems to have been saner than most prior to flotation:
".....Justin Urquhart Stewart [says] Although in general I think the shares are a hold, to wait for first year bonus, above £3 they start to look like a sell....."

ReportInvestor

ReportInvestor wrote:

What I don't know is whether the FTSE 100 tracker funds are able to buy in advance of the official announcement. [i.e. have they already been buying?] I guess it would depend on the individual manager's contract.

Anyone have any City knowledge of this?

Scotland on Sunday provides an immediate answer

Seeing is believing for Standard Life sceptics

"....Roman Cizdyn, of Oriel Securities, tells me Standard Life is carrying "a dirty great weight uphill" and that even its expected entry into the FTSE-100 will make little difference to the performance of the shares. While some argue that the trackers will now be forced to buy and will help stimulate demand, others like Cizdyn say they will have already sorted out their position. Any uplift will come from further evidence that the company has truly improved.
[On September 27 when the interim results are unveiled]......"

## - The article is well worth a read, putting the sceptics' case that Standard Life has been lucky so far. If you check the previous post, you'll see that Roman Cizdyn thought prior to flotation that, "no-one should pay more than 225p for Standard Life", so his Orial Securities customers will no doubt be a bit light in the stock and wondering why .

We shall just have to wait to see if it is he, or we, who end up with egg on their face.