House Waiting Lists between 10 and 33 YEARS

ukcarper

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

Sorry....

Commuting to Glasgow....

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-12824610.html?sortByPriceDescending=false&minPrice=175000&maxPrice=200000&minBedrooms=3&maxBedrooms=3&displayPropertyType=houses&radius=30.0&oldDisplayPropertyType=houses&pageNumber=2&fromSummary=true&backToListURL=%2Fproperty-for-sale%2FGlasgow.html%3FsortByPriceDescending%3Dfalse%26minPrice%3D175000%26maxPrice%3D200000%26minBedrooms%3D3%26maxBedrooms%3D3%26displayPropertyType%3Dhouses%26radius%3D30.0%26oldDisplayPropertyType%3Dhouses%26index%3D10

Commuting to London.....

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-27934940.html?locationIdentifier=REGION%5E87490&sortByPriceDescending=false&minPrice=450000&minBedrooms=3&maxBedrooms=3&displayPropertyType=houses&radius=30.0&oldDisplayPropertyType=houses&pageNumber=2&fromSummary=true&backToListURL=%2Fproperty-for-sale%2Ffind.html%3FlocationIdentifier%3DREGION%255E87490%26sortByPriceDescending%3Dfalse%26minPrice%3D450000%26minBedrooms%3D3%26maxBedrooms%3D3%26displayPropertyType%3Dhouses%26radius%3D30.0%26oldDisplayPropertyType%3Dhouses%26index%3D10

Not a really good example West Horsley is much nearer london prime stockbroker belt. Move out the same distance that Maybole is from Glasgow and a similar house would be about £300k.

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

bernard_shaw wrote: »

Property in every capital city is more expensive than that in it's hinterlands. I wonder whether that's because corporate HQ's and governmental administrative centres tend to be a focus of liquidity within economies?

Or whether the presence of corporate HQ's and governmental administrative centres creates the employment conditions neccessary for household formation growth to outstrip supply.....

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

ukcarper wrote: »

Not a really good example West Horsley is much nearer london prime stockbroker belt. Move out the same distance that Maybole is from Glasgow and a similar house would be about £300k.

You may well be right, my geographical knowledge of London commuter areas is non existent.

I just searched Rightmove, London and Glasgow plus 30 miles.

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

Emy1501 wrote: »

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-27912230.html?maxPrice=250000&maxDaysSinceAdded=7&minBedrooms=3&radius=0.5&pageNumber=1&fromSummary=true&backToListURL=%2Fproperty-for-sale%2Ffind.html%3FlocationIdentifier%3DREGION%255E378%26insId%3D1%26maxPrice%3D250000%26maxDaysSinceAdded%3D7%26minBedrooms%3D3%26radius%3D0.5

Communting distance to London and nearer

Careful now..... You're in danger of proving that housing in the South East IS affordable after all....;)

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

Paws wrote: »

As for the answer to the OP I'll just say the old 'a house is worth whatever someone is willing to pay' people in the south east are prepared to pay more and this has pushed prices up massively.

But don't you think they'd be delighted to pay less, if they could?

So in fact, they don't pay more because they want to, but because they have to as competition for limited stock drives up prices.

Emy1501

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

But don't you think they'd be delighted to pay less, if they could?

So in fact, they don't pay more because they want to, but because they have to as competition for limited stock drives up prices.

I live in the SE. Limited stock has driven up prices but a lot of the limited stock especially to do with flats is due to BTL. Back in 96 you only found the odd BTL in blocks of flats. By 2004 it was probably half the block in many blocks.

Also lax credit allowed prices to take off again in 2006. What you are yet to answer is how will prices continue to rise when the banks cannot lend at any higher multiples etc or do you believe that we will see 10X lending at sometime in the future? Surely the falls in 2008 were due to the fact banks could not lend any more to risky borrowers?

Graham_Devon

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

But don't you think they'd be delighted to pay less, if they could?

So in fact, they don't pay more because they want to, but because they have to as competition for limited stock drives up prices.

Hamish, at what point will you recognise that, yes, supply vs demand will increase prices.

But....

The credit to pay those prices and the economic fundamentals at the time have a HUGE impact on the price, regardless of high demand.

Of course you are now going to tell me thats all demand, but you are talking in a way which looks like you are solely looking at the demand from buyers wanting to live there, not demand as a whole in terms of buyers wanting it, credit, economic background etc.

Demand will always be high in London, supply will always be low. That does not mean prices will always rise.

treliac

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

As things stand today, the shortage of housing drives up prices, and that is how we ration them. The alternative method of rationing involves waiting lists. Measured in decades.

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

Oh, good heavens no.... Just pointing out a few facts that seem to have escaped the price controls crowd.

Or you can build more houses..... Which would be the most effective solution by far. And yet it's the one thing we never hear the resident house price critics campaigning for.:rolleyes:

Prices can only be driven up if there are prospective buyers willing and able to buy.

Yeah, build more houses (if we must) but is there likely to be much of a will to build them if there's too much uncertainty about the waiting market?

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

Emy1501 wrote: »

I live in the SE. Limited stock has driven up prices but a lot of the limited stock especially to do with flats is due to BTL. Back in 96 you only found the odd BTL in blocks of flats. By 2004 it was probably half the block in many blocks.

Which is still supply and demand. In this case demand from investors, versus O/O, but still an excess of demand meeting restricted supply.

What you are yet to answer is how will prices continue to rise when the banks cannot lend at any higher multiples etc or do you believe that we will see 10X lending at sometime in the future? Surely the falls in 2008 were due to the fact banks could not lend any more?

Banks stopped lending because their source of funding froze up due to the global financial crisis. Not because they were lending at high multiples.

In fact, the CML stats show that the average mortgage at peak was less than 3.5 times income for FTB's, and it has dropped to 3 times income today.

Now that the crash is over, UK banks have already started to re-issue RMBS, and this will only increase. Funding for new lending has increased almost every month this year.

But actually this thread is not about whether or not prices will rise.

The point that is being made is that if you accept supply and demand is a major factor in HPI, then surely you have to accept that capping prices, through mortgage lending limits or otherwise, will require the limited stock of housing to be rationed in a way other than price.

Like waiting lists.

This the reference to the 33 year social housing waiting list. It wouldn't be that bad, at first anyway, but how quickly would the list build if everyone could afford a home?

treliac

Emy1501 wrote: »

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-27912230.html?maxPrice=250000&maxDaysSinceAdded=7&minBedrooms=3&radius=0.5&pageNumber=1&fromSummary=true&backToListURL=%2Fproperty-for-sale%2Ffind.html%3FlocationIdentifier%3DREGION%255E378%26insId%3D1%26maxPrice%3D250000%26maxDaysSinceAdded%3D7%26minBedrooms%3D3%26radius%3D0.5

Communting distance to London and nearer

Oh, that strikes me as sad ...... there's only one pillow on the double bed ........ ?