HUGE 10%+ year on year gains coming up...

chucky

Procrastinator333 wrote: »

I haven't been reading this forum that long, so maybe i'm missing something.

Are you saying that Hamish deserves a star for predicting a 10% YOY growth in November 09?

Be a bull or bear it is obvious from the nationwide numbers that Hamish seems to use that @ Nov 09, there is a big increase in the YOY % coming.

Dec 08, Jan 09 and Feb 09 all have large falls in them, totalling 6%. Well done for predicting they would fall out the back end of the comparison.

you miss the point P man

there are people on this thread that did not believe that 10% HPI could be achieved by Feb 2010 even in November 2009.

it may not even happen but it's interesting reading looking at those that are in denial even in November 2009.
it only needs a 0.25% positive to hit 10%.

Procrastinator333

I think some people miss basic maths and how the YOY is calculated (not saying you, but anyone that thought 10% hpi on the nationwide @ Nov 09 by Feb 09 was not possible)

If prices are static for the next 2 months, YOY will be up to 9% by Feb 09 solely because the Jan 09 and Feb 09 fall out the back.

Predicting the continutation of a trend in such a short period is not hard and will be right the majority of the time

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

Originally Posted by carolt
I'm bookmarking this thread so I can laugh at it in February.

Very amusing.

Nationwide + 10.6% since Feb 09.

Still amused?;)

System

I can just imagine carol going through her bookmarks and positively guffawing when she clicks on this one.

phil_b_2

........

hamish_mctavish wrote: »

carolt wrote:

i'm bookmarking this thread so i can laugh at it in february.

very amusing. :d

nationwide + 10.6% since feb 09.

Still amused?;)

Pete111

AHA! There we go. (just referenced this on the other thread)

Sir_Humphrey

Procrastinator333 wrote: »

I haven't been reading this forum that long, so maybe i'm missing something.

Are you saying that Hamish deserves a star for predicting a 10% YOY growth in November 09?

Be a bull or bear it is obvious from the nationwide numbers that Hamish seems to use that @ Nov 09, there is a big increase in the YOY % coming.

Dec 08, Jan 09 and Feb 09 all have large falls in them, totalling 6%. Well done for predicting they would fall out the back end of the comparison.

At least someone here understands statistics.

nembot

One lesson you apparently haven't learnt Hamish is.... pride goeth before a fall.

You best hope they don't, as we may have to remind you

chucky

Sir_Humphrey wrote: »

At least someone here understands statistics.

that doesn;t say very much for the bearish posters on here - he seems to be the only one that does

andrewmp

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

Hell, it's the point I made in the OP.

Still didn't sink in to the frothers though.

We now have double digit HPI since trough.

Even if prices fall in Feb (which still seems likely IMO), we'll see double digit YoY growth again by Mar or Apr.

Presumably you'll have been one of the people saying (at peak) that house prices wouldn't fall. If so, do you admit you were wrong too as we've still seen substantial falls since peak.

I'll make a prediction, YOY house prices will be lower in January 2011 than they are now. Feel free to remind me how right I am in 12 months time.