HUGE 10%+ year on year gains coming up...

chucky

Emy1501 wrote: »

If we get well above average wage inflation then I can see it. For me even though people do not need to sell the credit is drying up. We saw this in 2004-2005 before the introduction of the 125% mortgages etc. Prices were flat and I suspect they would have remaind flat with normal lending circumstances.

40% is just over 3% HPI per year - not a huge amount really

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

HammerSmashedFace wrote: »

That looks like 'half of a W' to me, and it looks to be just about peaking, no surprise really with IR's as low as they are and money printing, the issue will be, what happens next when those 2 unsustainable policies end ?

This.....;)

the_ash_and_the_oak

with no forced sellers for a long while and lets say 40% higher in 10 years time then imo that possibly implies a much more separated market - a lowering proportion of sold properties being flats and a higher proportion being houses - a dynamic market of high transactions and big rises suggests a lot of activity across the market - lower transactions and gentler rises suggests activity concentrated in the "long term living" properties imo

the_ash_and_the_oak

ie over time the housing market itself has changed in what its actually comprised of

HammerSmashedFace

chucky wrote: »

or just a V or even half a square root. a W isn't guaranteed to happen at all.

the 2 unsustainable policies were needed not to support house prices but to support the economy.

I was being a bit tongue in cheek, I have no idea where that graph is going, it's going to be an interesting 2-3 years, in which time I expect those policies I mentioned to have stopped.

chucky

Graham_Devon wrote: »

What I did find rather odd however, is how you use Feburary as the start of the year to get the maximum YOY percentage.

Use November to November, i.e. a full YOY figure, and it doesn't work as well in your favour.

January is ignored. So were all spinning in our own way, as we all select what we will and won't use.

Joeskeppi wrote: »

Oh for heavens sake, I'm sorry but this is trolling, no one can do this sort of crap on purpose.

Edit: For the benefit of others, I'm referring to the proper definition of trolling, as opposed to meaning I don't agree with something.

it's something that is consistently part of this forum unfortunately - he often does it. Graham is not the first and won't be the last to do this.

any positive news is twisted and twisted with illogical and urban myths that you lose the will to even discuss the original topic.

it's more a kind of spamming than trolling.

Thrugelmir

chucky wrote: »

40% is just over 3% HPI per year - not a huge amount really

Though over the next 3-4 years I'm sure the average public sector, bank, car plant, retail worker would love a 3% increase in their pay. Probably more factoring in higher taxes and other increased living costs.

So possibly not achievable acroos the board.

Thrugelmir

chucky wrote: »

or just a V or even half a square root. a W isn't guaranteed to happen at all.

the 2 unsustainable policies were needed not to support house prices but to support the economy.

As far as QE is concerned it is supporting the availability of credit.

Without QE the banks would not have the money available to lend. As they would to have to contract their loan books back in line with their deposit base. Only then would they be in a position to lend on an increased basis.

Without QE prices might have fallen as mortgages would have been rationed and if sellers exceeded purchasers this would have applied downward pressure on prices.

The credit supply is going to contract in the coming years. That is a certainty in these unusual times.

chucky

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

www.independant.co.uk

18% YoY fall to 10% YoY gain in less than 12 months......

Bull or Bear, you have to admit thats amazing by anyones standards.

not long to go before you can claim that you were right Hamish - where do you want your gold star delivered? :money:

carolt wrote: »

I'm bookmarking this thread so I can laugh at it in February.

Very amusing.

Hamish - do you want to reply to this one?

Procrastinator333

I haven't been reading this forum that long, so maybe i'm missing something.

Are you saying that Hamish deserves a star for predicting a 10% YOY growth in November 09?

Be a bull or bear it is obvious from the nationwide numbers that Hamish seems to use that @ Nov 09, there is a big increase in the YOY % coming.

Dec 08, Jan 09 and Feb 09 all have large falls in them, totalling 6%. Well done for predicting they would fall out the back end of the comparison.