What to believe...

dfarry

I have posted a few messages in this forum and got some great advice, last week or example EDInvestor gave me lots of tips of ariving at an offer price and then justifying it to an Agent....

Whilst this may all be great, it seems like the average vendor does not have the same mindset as me and most on hear.... and subsequently I have had 3 "reasonable" offers refused point blank - not even a suggest from the vendors that they would contemplate an increased offer.

I have discussed these points with the agents concerned (clearly they are acting on behalf of the vendor) but they seem genuinely surprised when I outline the stats I have been reading.

So I seem to be getting conflicting messages and advice and it is very hard to decipher what to believe.

Looking at the BBC website this I found this article from 2002 http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/1846263.stm suggesting a peak and then levelling off period in 2002/3.... yeah right!

Then these more recent articles http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/5032368.stm (Nationwide suggesting sluggish market) and then this one suggests a jump in property sales http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/4751057.stm

So I am not sure what to believ... but I'll try to keep my nerve and not get sucked into the whole price bubble house market boom thing...... (but will I ever find a new house?)

AndrewSmith

Every property will be different and every vendor will have different expectations of what to expect as an offer. This will largely depend on the amount of mortgage they themselves have outstanding on the property, thus driving the price they need to achieve to make the move for them even possible.

What doesn't help is when the press, as they have recently, begin 'predicting' such things as a '7% property price boom expected'. The big question is would there be an increase without this sort of expectation being placed in the minds of sellers?

There really is no formula or system as the property market is such a fluid entity, and the value of a property being based on 2 things. 1) WHat a seller needs to acheive to make the move possible and 2) what someone is prepared to pay for a house.

Good luck

Andy

lynzpower

1. estate agents are salesmen, remember that first and foremost.

2. If you are buying a house live in, you can only pay what you can afford, regardless of crashes, peaks, interst rate rises and so forth. If you cant afford the higher price then leave it. If the property remains on the market for muhc longer then I guess you could come back to it later and see if the vendor has changed thier mind about accepting your offer.

3. Considering the effect of HIPS- they are going to be coming in in some form in August 07 and this should give you much more info up front, along with vendors more likely to be genuine about selling. There is a much debated thread about whether or not HIPS will bring on a price reduction, or less or more property will come on the market around January. Im not sure what I think at the moment.


just some thoughts.

dfarry

Yes I am seeing the same old poperties for sale in the areas we have been looking on Rightmove but these are not the one's we like. That said also those we have liked and had offers refused are still available so the longer I can wait (I am holding up my sale chain now) the better my bargaining position I suppose.

My budget is max £315-£320K (I'll feel more comfortable with £305K) so working on the basis of a first offer around 10% below asking price I have been looking at houses from £280-340K...

I'm going to make an offer on a house tomorrow in Burgess Hill - it is up for £317 - I will offer 305K (prices in Burgess Hill seem to have been more stable and generally more expensive, like for like - than in Uckfield where we have also been looking). I think this offer will also be declined despite my gut feeling that I am offering too much for it.

HIPS is interesting... (what do I know)... (can anyone predict?) I have a feeling it will cause fewer properties on the market, but unless there are interest rate increases the demand will remain and price will contain on their current...uncertain path.

dougk_2

Whilst there is a large demand for housing (regardless of its affordability) prices will keep going up in my view. With large numbers of people moving to the South of the country (lots of eastern european migrant workers for example) there will be more and more pressure on housing. Also if like me you don't like the current brand new houses (or as I prefer to describe them, boxes all crammed together on large developments) then prices of traditional houses will increase more and more as they become in short supply.

lynzpower

My personal feeling about HIPS is that yes, there may be fewer properties on the market, but those that are there are people who genuinely want to sell, and not just opportunists.

dfarry

Well I made my offer.... £302 (I decided on in the end) and was promptly told that another person had just placed an offer that was very close to the asking price. The vendors were considering the offer apparently because the offer requires a early completion.I'm sticking to my guns I don't think the place was worth £317K so I am not going to get sucked into a bidding war.The agent said he would pass my thoughts/comments on..ah well.. the search continues....

Jorgan_2

The problems with market reports is that they are generally not specific to any one area. While one area may be seeing prices increasing, others maybe static or decreasing. Likewise the property price website info is very limited, you don't know the condition or whether a property has been extended or neglected, just what it sold for.

HIPS will have an effect on the market when it comes into effect on June 1st 2007. If you want an honest answer as to how much of an effect, ask me on June 1st 2008. As Andrew Smith has said, each case is different, every seller has their price, whether it ties in with market at the time of selling or not.

How badly do you want the properties you have seen? That can also have an efffect on the price being offered.

libitina_2

dfarry wrote:

Well I made my offer.... £302 (I decided on in the end) and was promptly told that another person had just placed an offer that was very close to the asking price. The vendors were considering the offer apparently because the offer requires a early completion.I'm sticking to my guns I don't think the place was worth £317K so I am not going to get sucked into a bidding war.The agent said he would pass my thoughts/comments on..ah well.. the search continues....

My instant thought would be is the other buyer genuine or a figment of the ea's imagination in a bid to get you to increase your offer.

dfarry

Nah I think he was genuine... the conversation we had was very laid back really and he didn't push the point of making a higher offer....