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Hung Parliament?????
Comments
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If the bond markets dont get monetary tightening and tax rises, all hell is going to break loose. Dont assume that Labour/Conservatives can do anything other than hike tax and drop public spending; the truth is that they cant shirk the market.
You're wrong there, they'll be looking for monetary tightening OR fiscal tightening, but not both as it would crash the economy and destroy tax revenue and therefore ability of the government to service the debt.
The most likely scenario by far no matter who wins the election is a two speed strategy, with the fiscal policy lever pulled right back, and the monetary policy lever pushed full forward.
Cameron was on TV this morning banging on hard about creating growth and jobs. You can't do that by tipping the country back into recession. And as we know the Tories will cut public spending, then parallel monetary poilicy tightening becomes impossible.
Blanchflower called it pretty accurately IMO when he called for a few years of moderate inflation (5% or so) to be ignored by monetary policy response and allowed to inflate away the debt in a controlled manner. Meaning low rates for years whilst inflation does it's work.
It's difficult to see an elected government doing anything different tbh.
Not what the bears want to hear, I know, but there you are.“The great enemy of the truth is very often not the lie – deliberate, contrived, and dishonest – but the myth, persistent, persuasive, and unrealistic.
Belief in myths allows the comfort of opinion without the discomfort of thought.”
-- President John F. Kennedy”0 -
Last G20 economy to come out of recession, worst public sector debt ever, 'spun' data on inflation and unemployment from National Statistics, massive private debt, no manufacturing industry recovery despite £ devaluations, inflation ticking upwards, ...
Yes, given a hung-Parliament, the time taken with politiking and pork-barrel politics will ensure we are soon calling on the IMF.0 -
hung?
Jail is sufficient
No need to waste good rope0 -
HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »Blanchflower called it pretty accurately IMO when he called for a few years of moderate inflation (5% or so) to be ignored by monetary policy response and allowed to inflate away the debt in a controlled manner. Meaning low rates for years whilst inflation does it's work.
Screws our kids even more.
But hey, saves us. :beer:0 -
Erm....if SuperGord is allowed to reheat old policy and announce it anew surely I can be allowed a little post slip?you posted that already....
Question....assuming both the main showers have to feed us pain for a few years, which party do you think has a clue about what a future prosperous Britain looks like?0 -
The one thing that a hung parliament would restore would be parliamentary democracy,it would remove the more extreme policies of either labour or the nutories,and would probably gaurantee another GE in 2012.0
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whathavewedone wrote: »Too early to call it a rogue, too early to know if it isn't. One thing's for sure though, it will help to keep Gordon Brown in place until the election.
During the 1997 election campaign there was one poll which showed Labour just 4% ahead - also the economy was improving and although Labour was far ahead in most of the polls, the Conservatives came ahead of Labour in the polls in so far as being trusted to handle the economy was concerned.
I would be amazed if that was true because IMHO the reason we had a change of govt was the events of 16th Sept 1992, from my memory the general opinon around was, yes the economy was better but only because the Govt had been forced into the correct economic policies. If the election of April 9 1992 had been held on the 17th Sept 1992 we would not have had to wait five years for a Labour govt.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/onthisday/hi/dates/stories/september/16/newsid_2519000/2519013.stm'Just think for a moment what a prospect that is. A single market without barriers visible or invisible giving you direct and unhindered access to the purchasing power of over 300 million of the worlds wealthiest and most prosperous people' Margaret Thatcher0
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