Hung Parliament?????

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

Ipsos Mori's latest Poll suggests Labour has closed the gap to within 6% of Conservatives, reported on Sky News just now and I think in the observer this morning.

Anything less than a 9% lead would result in a hung parliament.

Now we all think we know what Labour would do (more of the same), and what the Conservatives would do(more of the same with different coloured ties), but what would the economic and housing implications be of a hung parliament? (Other than it being unlikely Kirstie Allsopp would become housing minister)

Graham_Devon

I don't know, but I'd be more worried about the implications for the emergency services and our troops out in Afganistan.

All while some MP's in London spend all their waking hours trying to get one over on the opposition.

I believe Labour should have called an election around October time anyway. Think they have missed a trick there. They will struggle next year, more than they would in October as everything was starting to look rosy.

Generali

The most likely outcome for a hung parliament (if the Lib Dems held the balance of power) would be that the UK would have PR and the majority partner could just about push any policy through they wanted if they cede that to the LDs.

If the Unionists hold the balance of power then the Tories should be able to govern pretty much unchecked, at least when it comes to economic policy. I guess Northern Ireland would get it's pork as a result.

If the Scots Nats hold the balance then presumably the outcome would be cuts in the rest of the UK with Scottish spending ring fenced.

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

Graham_Devon wrote: »

They will struggle next year, more than they would in October as everything was starting to look rosy.

Recession will officially end at the end of this quarter, the rises in unemployment will continue getting smaller, and may well plateau before the election, the spring bounce in house prices next year will have started long before the election, the political and media narrative will change from dealing with the recession, to whose plan is best for future growth, long before next summer.....

Labour have a lot to gain by waiting.....

It wouldn't surprise me if this poll was a rogue poll, outside the margins of error, and the next ones fall back in line with a strong conservative lead.

But things ARE far, far better than they were just 6 months ago, and getting better every day.

And it wouldn't surprise me to see a swing back to Labour as most people realise that the worst of it all is now behind us and they've come through it just fine.

kabayiri

hung?

Jail is sufficient
No need to waste good rope

whathavewedone

Too early to call it a rogue, too early to know if it isn't. One thing's for sure though, it will help to keep Gordon Brown in place until the election.

During the 1997 election campaign there was one poll which showed Labour just 4% ahead - also the economy was improving and although Labour was far ahead in most of the polls, the Conservatives came ahead of Labour in the polls in so far as being trusted to handle the economy was concerned.

I do think that a hung parliament is a real possibility though, mainly because the BBC ramps up anything positive for Labour eg Gordon Brown visiting Cumbria but ignores anything negative for as long as they possibly can - eg the leaked document about Iraq that's the subject of the Daily Telegraph's front page today.

I have no idea what will happen if we end up with a hung parliament.

Graham_Devon

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

Recession will officially end at the end of this quarter, the rises in unemployment will continue getting smaller, and may well plateau before the election, the spring bounce in house prices next year will have started long before the election, the political and media narrative will change from dealing with the recession, to whose plan is best for future growth, long before next summer.....

Labour have a lot to gain by waiting.....

It wouldn't surprise me if this poll was a rogue poll, outside the margins of error, and the next ones fall back in line with a strong conservative lead.

But things ARE far, far better than they were just 6 months ago, and getting better every day.

And it wouldn't surprise me to see a swing back to Labour as most people realise that the worst of it all is now behind us and they've come through it just fine.

Unemployment isn't going to start going up yet.

VAT is going back to 17.5% or higher which will make big headlines.

Pre-budget report is coming out.

They are borrowing even more than the massive sums they said they would borrow.

After christmas, spending will drop again as it always does, causing more problems in todays economic climate.

This would all be fine if labour had got another term after having an election in October, but I believe the "peak" of the good feeling has just passed.

chucknorris

The current betfair odds are:

4/9 Tory majority
3.2/1 Hung parliment
13/1 Labour majority
Plenty/1 any other majority

worldtraveller

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

Recession will officially end at the end of this quarter, the rises in unemployment will continue getting smaller, and may well plateau before the election, the spring bounce in house prices next year will have started long before the election, the political and media narrative will change from dealing with the recession, to whose plan is best for future growth, long before next summer.....

Labour have a lot to gain by waiting.....

It wouldn't surprise me if this poll was a rogue poll, outside the margins of error, and the next ones fall back in line with a strong conservative lead.

But things ARE far, far better than they were just 6 months ago, and getting better every day.

And it wouldn't surprise me to see a swing back to Labour as most people realise that the worst of it all is now behind us and they've come through it just fine.

I actually agree with a lot of what you say. :eek: But realistically, it's really not rocket science! :rolleyes:

U.K. recession will, no doubt, end at the end of Q4. Pretty much everyone agrees with that. The U.K. Government QE actions will, largely, ensure that, together with a general restocking after a severe run down in inventory during the financial crash.

Yes, the rises in unemployment will probably get smaller, but, they will probably continue, well into 2011/12 IMHO.

There may well be a spring bounce in house prices (as usual :rolleyes:), but, IMHO, it will be within an annual fall rate of around 10% +/-.

Yes, I agree. Things are generally better than 6 months ago. No big deal there! :rolleyes:

However, I totally disagree that the worst is behind us. The worst is yet to come for many, largely after the election, in 2011, when house prices, IMHO, will fall a further 10%+ due to continued rising unemployment, higher tax & interest rates, higher financial defaults and increasing repossession rates. I would personally substitute your word people "realise" for people "think".

As for the swing back to Labour, I doubt it very much. People want change. It's largely, really, as simple as that!

mbga9pgf

If the bond markets dont get monetary tightening and tax rises, all hell is going to break loose. Dont assume that Labour/Conservatives can do anything other than hike tax and drop public spending; the truth is that they cant shirk the market.

SailorSam

Nick Clegg was on the Andrew Marr show this morning and was asked what his party would do if left with the balance of power, he said he thought he had a duty to back whichever of the main parties had the majority of the vote.