The FTSE THE FTSE !!! - Loooooking Baaaad!

Deemy

Okay, if youve been following me for the past six months, you will know that I'd dumped most of my portfolio with a view to buying the market on a decline.

Well the decline has / is happening, BUT ItS a lot steeper than I had imagined it to be ! yes its rallied from 5500, but to get to 5500 IN MAY !!! :eek: I was imagining it sometime in September / October

This is making me rethink my target of a decline to 5400, of something much further, having dusted down my voodoo charts that I made in Nov, the figure of 5000 is looking big and bold !

So KEEP THOSE FINGERS OFF THOSE BUY TRIGGERS !!!

As time is telling this trend has further to go, and if 5500 is achieved in so little time, well that means the trends going to be much deeper than originally anticipated, way back when the FTSE was around 6100, and I was suggesting that we are looking AT THE high

Yes, I know I', blowing my trumpet, and forecasting is usually BS, but sometimes.... it pays off ... sometimes...... sometimes... well okay at least I knew whent o get out, now I need to figure out when to get back in !!!

Now thats HARDER than getting out, as getting out was easy, had profits to bank... But getting in knowing that the market could go far deeper than I thought it would has put me in a dillemma, as like most people I want to buy ! OFF COURSE I DO !!! Stocks are cheap !!! BUT

They have got cheap far too quickly !!! Oh well, lets see what happens.... I'll avoid the stock charts for the next 2 weeks and see where we are at to have a further clue as to the degree of the current bear market... yes it is a bear market - AS originally anticipated

Now folks come and ripp my post to shreds, as I would not expect anything else ! As I am not sure how low it will go, really I wish I was but I am not, hence going to not think about the ftse for a good 2 weeks maybe longer, maybe give it 3 weeks so I can see what the chart pattern is in a snap without the immediate daily girations clouding trend interpretation.

Alechjo

I am sure you are much more experienced trader than me, but what they say to all novices 'never catch falling knives'. Get on early, but get on a bull, not a bear! I recently suffered my largest loss buying too much at a slowing bearish trend, which suddenly dropped and caused margin call. I believe until there are confirmed signs of new bullish trend it's better not to buy.

Deemy

Yes your right, and I'm NOT catching a falling knife !

offcourse I would look for confirmation as I was looking for the market to confirm at or around 5400, before looking at the individual stock / IT charts for specific entry timing.

Just that the SPEED of the decline has thrown me a wobbly... And I am talkign about INVESTING, rather than trading. If it had bottomed at 5400, I would be buying on a rally above 5500. So not exactly catching a falling knife !

NEVER CATCH A FALLING KNIFE !!! Even if your wearing gloves !

Joe_Bloggs

One can understand why certain companies buy themselves out of the share market. Why subject yourself to mindless global speculation when all the market understands is fear and greed. This could just be my own view as I am not a direct investor in shares. My pension company probably is.
J_B.

ManAtHome

A problem if you're a day-trader, but P/E are more favourable now than in the pits of 2003. Sounds very much like Baa Baa Baa (couldn't think of a sheep equivalent of sell sell sell).

No vested interest by the way - my cash in equiities isn't going to make me jump off a high building and can be taken out any time in the next 20 odd years.

Deemy

ManAtHome wrote:

A problem if you're a day-trader, but P/E are more favourable now than in the pits of 2003. Sounds very much like Baa Baa Baa (couldn't think of a sheep equivalent of sell sell sell).

No vested interest by the way - my cash in equiities isn't going to make me jump off a high building and can be taken out any time in the next 20 odd years.

LOL..... :rotfl:

Sorry but I got to :rotfl: :rotfl: :rotfl: :rotfl:

Okay you can afford to lose, but DO NOT GET FOOLED BY TODAYS PE RATIO'S !!! As you know earnings can and ARE revised Todays PE of 10 could literally tommorrow turn out to be 100

OFFCOURSE !!! The market will have moved by the time the average punter finds out what the true earnings are This what happens when a bull market becomes a bear market. The forecast earnings all evaporate and stocks follow earnings revisions ever lower so a stock what a few weeks ago with a low pe after a price drop now has an even higher PE ! The last Bear market is littered with such carnage !

Yes the PE can be useful, but on its own, its like putting a gun to your head , you can be convinced into buying garbage that will turn out to be worthless... but I hear you say... it had a low pe ....

what you need to look for is consistently, if your main criteria for stock entry is the PE ratio - then you want to buy a stock thats had consistently low PE ratios for the last 20 years !!! not 12 months ! That increases the probability that the company WON'T go bust

cheerfulcat

So KEEP THOSE FINGERS OFF THOSE BUY TRIGGERS !!!

This is not advice, right?

[Deleted User]

applause **************** applause

welcome to self-styled `expert` and sheep gatherer. The one and only

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Deemy with the crystal ball

millsee

Such worry over a minor correction.

Shares are still very very cheap. Buy some put options if you're worried.

zag2me

Hmm I've lost 300 quid since this thing started, and its so depressing hope they recover, but looking at past charts, the ftse seems to work in cycles. Are we at the start of a downward cycle?

superjames4

FTSE goes down, FTSE goes up - i try to buy good funds, and buy on the dips, but ultimately have to trust that FTSE goes up in the long run...

it's much more fun when it's not going down though!