How sentiment can change in one year. Property prices expected to rise.

Really2

Quizzical_Squirrel wrote: »

The 5% only refers to sentiment right now though and I believe (personally, not quoting from the article) that if potential sellers are confident prices will rise next year, the are unlikely to decide November 2010 is the optimum time to market their house but will probably do it at the traditional time - spring.

I can't see sentiment being better in early spring to tell you the truth. (winter price drops I think will happen)
Also I can't say there is an "optimum" time to buy in terms of season. The "spring bounce" is weighted against so in reality there is no such thing (otherwise no one would market a house at any other time). It is just that many don't look to buy over the Christmas period.

The thing which will effect supply is confidence and that will be on the back of a long period of increasing or stable prices.
i think this winter will dampen your theory unfotunatly.

IveSeenTheLight

Quizzical_Squirrel wrote: »

The 5% only refers to sentiment right now though and I believe (personally, not quoting from the article) that if potential sellers are confident prices will rise next year, the are unlikely to decide November 2010 is the optimum time to market their house but will probably do it at the traditional time - spring.

Sentiment for selling is as it is reported now - 5%.
It's unlikely to increase over the next few winter months, therefore maybe the optimum sentiment for selling wont be spring 2010 but spring 2011 with sentiment for selling increasing throughout 2010

Emy1501

Really2 wrote: »

I can't see sentiment being better in early spring to tell you the truth. (winter price drops I think will happen)
Also I can't say there is an "optimum" time to buy in terms of season. The "spring bounce" is weighted against so in reality there is no such thing (otherwise no one would market a house at any other time). It is just that many don't look to buy over the Christmas period.

The thing which will effect supply is confidence and that will be on the back of a long period of increasing or stable prices.
i think this winter will dampen your theory unfotunatly.

If we we see a few drops over the winter months then I suspect you will see property going on the market and sentiment changing by March or so. Most people saying next year is not a good time to sell are basing that on the fact that they believe prices are going to keep rising and rising. If they see a few drops from Haliwide then things will change. Just like most of the people I know who STR'd started to panic back in the early part of the year many who want to or need to sell will panic as soon as prices show any sign of falling. As said before most of these people only see headlines and therefore will not read the reasons for the drops.

Really2

Emy1501 wrote: »

If we we see a few drops over the winter months then I suspect you will see property going on the market and sentiment changing by March or so. Most people saying next year is not a good time to sell are basing that on the fact that they believe prices are going to keep rising and rising.

Can't see that myself, so people who wanted to sell in 08 never sold in 09 because prices were rising and then are going to sell when they fall again.

I would say the 95% who think it is a bad time to sell are more likely to say it is a bad time to sell if the market takes a step back.

They are saying now is not a good time to sell but the 2nd half of next year will be according to the article.

I read it that they think prices will have risen enough by the 2nd half of next year that it would be worth selling again.
I really do not think the kind of people who want 07 prices are going to sell if prices start falling. They will be held back by the same thing that held them back in 2008, what they think their house is worth.:)

Personally I cant see supply easing until we see 90% LTV mortgages at rates of around 4% (or nearer base at least)
That could be some time of yet.

Emy1501

Really2 wrote: »

Can't see that myself, so people who wanted to sell in 08 never sold in 09 because prices were rising and then are going to sell when they fall again.

I would say the 95% who think it is a bad time to sell are more likely to say it is a bad time to sell if the market takes a step back.

They are saying now is not a good time to sell but the 2nd half of next year will be according to the article.

I read it that they think prices will have risen enough by the 2nd half of next year that it would be worth selling again.
I really do not think the kind of people who want 07 prices are going to sell if prices start falling. They will be held back by the same thing that held them back in 2008, what they think their house is worth.:)

Personally I cant see supply easing until we see 90% LTV mortgages at rates of around 4% (or nearer base at least)
That could be some time of yet.

Ive seen programmes where split up couples are still living in the same flat, house because they were waiting for prices to rise etc. There are also people with inheritance properties, accidental BTL's etc these people will all need to sell at sometime. They have all been waiting for prices to rise as high as possible before selling. Just like people who STR'd who panicked and bought the first thing they saw when prices started to rise the same thing will happen the other way. I wonder how many people in the survey at the end of 2008 thought buying would have been a good idea in 2009 I doubt many. I see a few having the Wilsons mentality ie trying to get shot of their property when the times are reasonable especially before we see higher interest rates.

We will have to wait and see but I see the above if Halwide figures go negative in Dec and then into Jan and Feb.

Really2

Emy1501 wrote: »

Ive seen programmes where split up couples are still living in the same flat, house because they were waiting for prices to rise etc. There are also people with inheritance properties, accidental BTL's etc these people will all need to sell at sometime. They have all been waiting for prices to rise as high as possible before selling.

Sorry most of the people in your post sell straight away especially the two above.
Do you really expect me to believe that every deceased estate has not been put on the market as they are waiting for prices to rise.
Also couples putting a few £ ahead of their lives.. My bro has split up with his mrs and the house is on the market.

But you have seen a TV program so it must mean everyone is holding out again.

If they are holding out why would they sell when prices fall again though surly they would hold out again.
Or is this where the psychology part of your idea falls apart a bit. (if they are waiting for a property to get to a certain figure surly they will wait for that figure that would only be in a rising market not a falling one.)

Emy1501

Really2 wrote: »

Sorry most of the people in your post sell straight away especially the two above.
Do you really expect me to believe that every deceased estate has not been put on the market as they are waiting for prices to rise.
Also couples putting a few £ ahead of their lives.. My bro has split up with his mrs and the house is on the market.

But you have seen a TV program so it must mean everyone is holding out again.

If they are holding out why would they sell when prices fall again though surly they would hold out again.
Or is this where the psychology part of your idea falls apart a bit. (if they are waiting for a property to get to a certain figure surly they will wait for that figure that would only be in a rising market not a falling one.)

Have never suggested everyone is doing the above I've said that there are clearly people doing it. It maybe 1 it maybe 1000's we just do not know. I remember when I STR'd in 2007 I thought only a handful of people were doing it then I found out 4 people at work had done it, a few people at the kids school had done and also even family friends. All of a sudden it was way more than I thought.

As for psychology there is only so long you can live in a house you split up from your partner in and therefore at sometime these people will want to sell and it the same as the other catogries. Some will be waiting for the top of the market in the medium term if all of sudden it seems to have been hit in the new year then you will see a few selling.

The above is just an opinion I not saying its what going to happen. This time last year few thought buyers were going to enter the market an prices would rise. Who knows what will happen next year.

Most house price forecasts are a waste of time partly because public sentiment changes like the wind.

the_ash_and_the_oak

not sure reason people didn't attempt sales in 2008 was only price related - obv is a factor - think another signif factor was volume related - whats the point if there are no buyers? Buying and selling isn't always straightforward at the best of times - it was a bad time to sell last year (and this!) imo because of trouble having sales actually go through imo

Really2

Quizzical_Squirrel wrote: »

Raises hand - I'm waiting!

You are holding a deceased estate until prices rise?