How sentiment can change in one year. Property prices expected to rise.

Really2

This gives us some idea of how us as a nation are thinking.
I have taken the liberty of highlighting the interesting bits.
http://www.google.com/hostednews/ukpress/article/ALeqM5hYucaY8EPGSUFB6bei6WXXewFh7A

More than half of us expect house prices to be higher in 12 months' time than they are now, research has showed.
Around 54% think the cost of property will increase during the coming year, with 7% thinking prices will be at least 10% higher, while only 11% think they will be lower.
The figure is a dramatic turnaround from the 69% of people who thought prices would be lower in 12 months' time during the first quarter of the year, property website Rightmove said.
But the current imbalance between supply and demand looks set to continue, with 68% of people thinking now is a good time to buy a home, but only 5% thinking it is a good time to sell one.
The current shortage of homes on the market has offered some support to house prices, but it has led to around five potential buyers chasing every property that is up for sale.
However, there are signs that the imbalance could ease during 2010, with 54% of people saying they think it will be a better time to sell a property a year from now, suggesting more sellers may come to the market towards the end of next year.
People are less confident that conditions for buyers will be better in 12 months' time, with only 25% thinking they will have improved, while 22% think they will be worse and half think they will be the same.
Miles Shipside, commercial director at Rightmove, said: "Those surveyed may feel that prices will increase, but that does not necessarily mean they are willing or able to purchase themselves, especially given the tight lending criteria required to access the best rates."
People in the north are more pessimistic about whether it is a good time to sell a property than those in the south, with 12% more respondents in northern regions thinking it is a bad time to sell compared with those in southern ones.
The group said this was likely to reflect the fact that high demand and low levels of stock in London and the south had created a sellers' market and were driving price increases, but the shortage of homes for sale is less acute in northern regions.

I don't know what to think.
We all know what each other think but can remember last year everyone saying the market wont change until sentiment improves.

If the market follows the above sentiment it could be a strange 2010 also.

abaxas

There is a small issue with this...

If you take the average age of an FTB realtive to the current housing turnover...

The buyer is dead for about 8 years before they sell it on.

Madness

IveSeenTheLight

Really2 wrote: »

I don't know what to think.
We all know what each other think but can remember last year everyone saying the market wont change until sentiment improves.

If the market follows the above sentiment it could be a strange 2010 also.

I had thought that we would see falls over the winter and rises next year equating to a stagnation in price over the year.

With not seeing drops yet this year, time is ticking on and the months of drops may result in being less than those with rises, therefore a more positive YoY index than I previously considered.

With sentiment also changing more positively, it only strenthens the likelyhood of YoY rises.

Two things will be crucial in the upcoming year: -

1) The amount of sellers that join the market
and
2) If there is enough credit made available for the level of transactions completed.

Really2

I suppose like this year it could take a short time to change the sentiment.
But I am getting closer to not having a clue of where house prices are going.

HammerSmashedFace

25% deposits, low transactions, spiralling unemployment, low IR's that when change will cause problems, QE to be witdrawn at some point, massive deficit (another £11.4 billion added today).

When the economy is in such poor shape sentiment is irrelevant. I still want to know where all these rises are coming from. Property on Rightmove is down on like for like houses on this time last year, not much selling and still a steady amount of drops.

Don't know who they are asking about sentiment, but if someone in the street surveyed me, I'd tell 'em things were s*it and will surely get worse. Not one policy that is keeping the current bounce going is sustainable, i.e QE, low IR's, car scrappage..... etc etc. All temporary and if were all withdrawn today, the economy would be worse off than this time last year.

Of course if you just live for today and not tomorrow, things are dandy, however its difficult to do if you have a mega mortgage around your neck, that you are barely keeping a handle on (i.e. more than a million)

StevieJ

With survey results like that looks we are in for a big drop next year

Graham_Devon

If these people are anything like my mum, all she watches is the BBC news and believes it, and doesnt think of quetionning who's saying what they are saying. Therefore, her sentiment simply follows what shes told. Nothing to do with her thoughts.

I'd assume a hell of a lot of people are the same.

Cleaver

HammerSmashedFace wrote: »

25% deposits, low transactions, spiralling unemployment, low IR's that when change will cause problems, QE to be witdrawn at some point, massive deficit (another £11.4 billion added today).

Aren't there quite a few 10% deposit mortgages back on the market? There seems to be a load of them here.

And is 'spiraliing' the best way to describe unemployment at the moment? The last rise in unemployment was quite low and well below expectations wasn't it?

http://www.hrmguide.co.uk/jobmarket/unemployment.htm

The figures out today also reinforce the fact that the UK labour market is performing better than most major economies. They show UK unemployment at 7.8%, compared to an EU average of 9.2% and lower than 14 other EU countries including France (10.0%), Ireland (13.0%) and Spain (19.3%), as well as the US (10.2%) and Canada (8.6%)."

HammerSmashedFace wrote: »

Don't know who they are asking about sentiment, but if someone in the street surveyed me, I'd tell 'em things were s*it and will surely get worse.

I imagine this is because you read up a lot and are aware of what is going on around you. Survey, for example, my office and the vast majority of people will tell you that their sentiment is improving. Their house is going up in value, their pension has probably added 30% in value in 12 months, their investments have gone up, most have kept their job and the recession looks like it's coming to an end to them. I imagine that my office is a good representation of most people out there.

At the end of the day it's fairly obvious why sentiment is improving. Doesn't mean that that sentiment is right, I'm just saying it's obvious why it's there.

Cleaver

Graham_Devon wrote: »

If these people are anything like my mum, all she watches is the BBC news and believes it, and doesnt think of quetionning who's saying what they are saying. Therefore, her sentiment simply follows what shes told. Nothing to do with her thoughts.

I'd assume a hell of a lot of people are the same.

Bang on. Sentiment is largely based on people's views which are often based on the media and conversations at their place of work.

IveSeenTheLight

Graham_Devon wrote: »

If these people are anything like my mum, all she watches is the BBC news and believes it, and doesnt think of quetionning who's saying what they are saying. Therefore, her sentiment simply follows what shes told. Nothing to do with her thoughts.

I'd assume a hell of a lot of people are the same.

Like mother, like son

HammerSmashedFace

Cleaver wrote: »

Aren't there quite a few 10% deposit mortgages back on the market? There seems to be a load of them here.

And is 'spiraliing' the best way to describe unemployment at the moment? The last rise in unemployment was quite low and well below expectations wasn't it?

http://www.hrmguide.co.uk/jobmarket/unemployment.htm






I imagine this is because you read up a lot and are aware of what is going on around you. Survey, for example, my office and the vast majority of people will tell you that their sentiment is improving. Their house is going up in value, their pension has probably added 30% in value in 12 months, their investments have gone up, most have kept their job and the recession looks like it's coming to an end to them. I imagine that my office is a good representation of most people out there.

At the end of the day it's fairly obvious why sentiment is improving. Doesn't mean that that sentiment is right, I'm just saying it's obvious why it's there.

I like your posts Cleaver (I write a bit of doom to get some positive reaction most of the time), especially this bit at the bottom, you are quite correct. Christ I wished I hadn't read all those books I've been reading over the past 5 years, I'd be as ignorant then as the majority of masses, which is no bad thing.

The only good thing is I'm prepared mentally for the future.