How sentiment can change in one year. Property prices expected to rise.

Graham_Devon

Cleaver wrote: »

Bang on. Sentiment is largely based on people's views which are often based on the media and conversations at their place of work.

It's how a lot of stuff works!

Mum's a complete nightmare. She will see a sale, or reduced price, and thinks that's actually what it is. That's regardless of whether the normal price was always 99p, but now on BOGOF it's £1.99.

But can you tell her!? She actually went to DFS and bought a higher priced sofa than she wanted because a "sale" was on and the man told her it was a good sale because it was now half price. Half price my arris. That's the price, the RRP is worthless.

I expect there are far more of "my mum" out there than there than people who actually look at other avenues on recieving information. All the girls are at it at work with this catologue that comes round for christmas.....should see the prices! You got one girl who's on commission selling this tatt, and all the others clambering over themselves to pay £8 for a half price roll of standard wrapping paper (like it was ever £16!).

Emy1501

The majority of the public just believe and agree with what the headline are in the paper or on TV. House prices are going up the recession is nearly over etc means the public believe we will be back to 2007 by this time next year.

All we need is a couple of month falls from Halliwide etc and every thing will change.

Really2

Graham_Devon wrote: »

All the girls are at it at work

I used to work at a company like that, the Party's were great.

IveSeenTheLight

HammerSmashedFace wrote: »

25% deposits, low transactions, spiralling unemployment, low IR's that when change will cause problems, QE to be witdrawn at some point, massive deficit (another £11.4 billion added today).

25% deposits - This was as a result of tihter lending requirement which is now easing. There are a number of 90% LTV's available.

Low Transactions - Because the market was cautious and sentiment down. These are also changing.

Spiralling Unemployment - Increased by about 1 Million? The population has increased each year for the last decade with an average of 325K per year. There's been more people employed in the last decade than have lost there jobs in this recession. The rise in unemployment is also much lower than expected.

Low IR's - I don't subscribe to your belief that when these raise then there will cause problems. Many could afford the rates when they were 5.75%. many have been able to pay down debt as the rates are low, therefore if and when rates rise back to 5-6%, people should be in a better position than when they were last at that level. Also indicators are that the low rates are still to be with us for a while and when they do rise it will likely be gradual.

QE to be withdrawn - Probably will be when the MPC decide that it hasdone its job and the economy is in a position to be able to survive without it.

Massive defecit - Ok, we will have to pay for this stimulus. how much worse would the country have been without it? No point in having hindsight to say what should have been done in the good times. Those days are gone. Only need to focus on what had to be done and how to pay to clear it up.

Graham_Devon

Sorry ISTL, these kind of posts really grind. Not a pop at you, but I will explain why they grind...

IveSeenTheLight wrote: »

25% deposits - This was as a result of tihter lending requirement which is now easing. There are a number of 90% LTV's available.

There always were a number of 90% LTV's available. This looks past how much they actually cost. And they are expensive. The 90% is just one part. The interest, arrangement fee's etc are problems in themselves. So it's not quite as clear cut as you suggest.

Low Transactions - Because the market was cautious and sentiment down. These are also changing.

Also because people could not get credit. Because they were in NE, because their house was falling in value. Because chains were being broken by people unable to complete. It wasn't simply sentiment which is now just changing. We still have many of the problems above. It isn't going to change to normality any time soon. Yes, you are correct, it IS changing. But that looks past the fact that it aint going to be "normal" for ages.

Spiralling Unemployment - Increased by about 1 Million? The population has increased each year for the last decade with an average of 325K per year. There's been more people employed in the last decade than have lost there jobs in this recession. The rise in unemployment is also much lower than expected.

Argh! Up 1 million is nearly double the original figure! Whether we have an increased population, or it was lower than forecast, it's nearly double. Thats huge, regardless of how you paint it.

Low IR's - I don't subscribe to your belief that when these raise then there will cause problems. Many could afford the rates when they were 5.75%. many have been able to pay down debt as the rates are low, therefore if and when rates rise back to 5-6%, people should be in a better position than when they were last at that level. Also indicators are that the low rates are still to be with us for a while and when they do rise it will likely be gradual.

People relied on remortgaging to get a better deal. That remortgaging option is a lot harder now. We have no idea when they will rise, or how they will rise. Judging by how they fell, I would say it would be extremely dangerous to suggest they will rise gradually. One turn in the markets somewhere, and thats it, things change rapidly.

People will not be in a better position if rates rise back up. They will be in a worse position having got used to the amount currently going out. That is life, that's how people work. You get used to an outgoing and you decide you can now afford that car loan with the mortgage savings. Let's not pretend everyone is savvy, we got into this whole mess through people NOT being savvy.

QE to be withdrawn - Probably will be when the MPC decide that it hasdone its job and the economy is in a position to be able to survive without it.

Well yes, but you are just saying it will end. Not taking any real notice of what was actually said and what will happen when it ends. We all know it will end.

Massive defecit - Ok, we will have to pay for this stimulus. how much worse would the country have been without it? No point in having hindsight to say what should have been done in the good times. Those days are gone. Only need to focus on what had to be done and how to pay to clear it up.

Agreed. But again, kind of looks past the problem with paying for this. It's just again saying we will have to pay for it, which again, we know.

HammerSmashedFace

IveSeenTheLight wrote: »

25% deposits - This was as a result of tihter lending requirement which is now easing. There are a number of 90% LTV's available. What rate and what fee ?

Low Transactions - Because the market was cautious and sentiment down. These are also changing. 90k+ is years away IMO.

Spiralling Unemployment - Increased by about 1 Million? The population has increased each year for the last decade with an average of 325K per year. There's been more people employed in the last decade than have lost there jobs in this recession. The rise in unemployment is also much lower than expected. Fiddled figures, we all know real unemployment is around 5 million.

Low IR's - I don't subscribe to your belief that when these raise then there will cause problems. Many could afford the rates when they were 5.75%. many have been able to pay down debt as the rates are low, therefore if and when rates rise back to 5-6%, people should be in a better position than when they were last at that level. Also indicators are that the low rates are still to be with us for a while and when they do rise it will likely be gradual. Mortgage rates will not be 5.75% when base rate is 5%, they will be higher again IMO. Indicators of any kind are useless otherwise we would have forseen what was coming last year.

QE to be withdrawn - Probably will be when the MPC decide that it hasdone its job and the economy is in a position to be able to survive without it. Nice optimism, this will be a tricky one, balanced between another collapse or inflation (IR's up, housing market down)

Massive defecit - Ok, we will have to pay for this stimulus. how much worse would the country have been without it? No point in having hindsight to say what should have been done in the good times. Those days are gone. Only need to focus on what had to be done and how to pay to clear it up. The stimulus has done nothing, money has been borrowed to make things look better, after 12 months it's achieved no more than what borrowing and spending would do for anyone. Take it away and things would be worse than last year, oh and we have to pay for it now too.

All very optimistic ISTL, but no more realistic than my forecasts. Like I've said nothing has been done so far policy wise that is sustainable and if were taken away today, TSHTF again.

I just don't understand why people can't see this. We are borrowing money like it's going out of fashion to make it appear that things are getting better. Anyone (or any country) can look good while spending borrowed money........ it's what happens after, when the bill hits the matt.

I'll bet you a £10 (seriously) that the country is worse off in 18 months time than it is now.

ThrowingStonesAtYou

Graham_Devon wrote: »

If these people are anything like my mum, all she watches is the BBC news and believes it, and doesnt think of quetionning who's saying what they are saying. Therefore, her sentiment simply follows what shes told. Nothing to do with her thoughts.

I'd assume a hell of a lot of people are the same.

Exactly. This survey shows how the nation are not thinking. Is it too much to hope that anybody learned anything from the ongoing financial crisis? I suppose it is really, after all it was the evil bankers fault, not the general public who are, relative to the past, up to their eyeballs in debt.

ruggedtoast

Graham_Devon wrote: »

If these people are anything like my mum, all she watches is the BBC news and believes it, and doesnt think of quetionning who's saying what they are saying. Therefore, her sentiment simply follows what shes told. Nothing to do with her thoughts.

I'd assume a hell of a lot of people are the same.

My mother in law was sagely advising my wife that there would be "almost nowhere" in the village she lives for less than £225k.

The house next to theirs sold a few months ago for £175k.

People believe what they want to believe - reality set in when you need to buy / sell.

the_ash_and_the_oak

Really2 wrote: »

I don't know what to think.
We all know what each other think but can remember last year everyone saying the market wont change until sentiment improves.

If the market follows the above sentiment it could be a strange 2010 also.

I thought sentiment was pretty good last year re:houses tbh.

I'm prob too young to remember a time when sentiment was poor tho tbf

Really2

the_ash_and_the_oak wrote: »

I thought sentiment was pretty good last year re:houses tbh.

I'm prob too young to remember a time when sentiment was poor tho tbf

TBF if you looked on the house buying and rent board last year it was very different to this year. Also a lot less people using it last year.