Watch Out: the housing market is about to turn back down

crusty_toenail

Sir_Humphrey wrote: »

Actually the analysis makes some sense, as this reflects the opinion of institutional investors of the new build housing market and by extension the whole housing market.

yes indeed, things getting interesting, FTSE up and BDEV down again;)

Harry_Powell wrote: »

He won't, that's his genius.
Once I realised what he was doing it was like seeing through a magic trick. You look around at the rest of the audience and laugh at them for being taken in. No one is as idiotic as Graham makes out, it's all a scam to tie up the bears in never-ending and pointless arguments.
Sheer bloody genius!

Indeed, it is hard to get a decent discussion going when troll posters de-rail the thread and in the end the good posters get fed up and leave.

Harry_Powell

crusty_toenail wrote: »

yes indeed, things getting interesting, FTSE up and BDEV down again;)


Indeed, it is hard to get a decent discussion going when troll posters de-rail the thread and in the end the good posters get fed up and leave.

And yet they continue to fall for it, and continue to clog up threads with detailed explanations of concepts that Devon pretends to misinterpret so that they end up as confused as he 'supposedly' is. He then also introduces random ideas and concepts, mixed with a few false accusations of "well 2 days ago you said the opposite" and totally ties them up in knots. Meanwhile all the decent discussion in the thread is swamped and everyone's attention is directed at Devon.

I've said it before and I'll say it again, he's playing this game to perfection and he's got these guys tangled in knots. The sooner they realise and stop engaging him in 'discussion', the sooner we'll get back to decent debate.

nembot

I think it's inevitable that prices will drop.

If i'm wrong, so be it... I'm man enough to accept it.

Signed Aubergine (to make the search a little easier in 12 months).

nearlynew

Sir_Humphrey wrote: »

Anyone would have thought that Dominic Frisby and Michael Hampton were regulars on HPC boards...:D

You will more likely find them hanging about on their own website.........

http://www.greenenergyinvestors.com/


"Frizzers" even has his own radio show which is often a good listen.......

http://commoditywatch.podbean.com/

Sir_Humphrey

nearlynew wrote: »

You will more likely find them hanging about on their own website.........

http://www.greenenergyinvestors.com/


"Frizzers" even has his own radio show which is often a good listen.......

http://commoditywatch.podbean.com/

I used to post there sometimes.

I have never met "Frizzers" but I have met "Dr Bubb" at a GHPC meet.

Graham_Devon

IveSeenTheLight wrote: »

I take your point about the time under the mean line, but as you agree, there is no scaling or time reference.

As for no index having been below the mean, you are incorrect on this.

You can see this on Nationwide's Long Term House Price Trend
(see here on page 3)
http://www.nationwide.co.uk/hpi/historical/Sep_2009.pdf

Granted it did not go very far below, but surely from a stability sense you would want prices to follow the mean instead of boomin and busting way above and below.

Not very far below? It just about sqeaks past it!!

treliac

Bootski wrote: »

Been told to "hold out til Christmas when families come together and Mum or Gran put forward an offer, over the Christmas Dinner, to help out their younger family with deposit etc"

Also vica versa, a good time for the youngsters to ask Mum and Dad, Granparents for help with deposit etc to "get them started on the ladder" - Before it's too late!!

Of course a long, harsh winter season could free up a few deposits via inheritance :eek:

carolt

Heyman wrote: »

That'd be Moneyweek, the mouthpiece of HPC.com :rolleyes:

I was considering giving the article some credibility until I saw that laughable 'Stages in a Bubble' graph near the bottom being used as 'evidence'

Funny - Hamish quoted a piece off Moneweek a couple of weeks back - whole long thread of bulls doing little war dances round it. Can't remember a word it said - if anyone cares to take on the job of searching through Hamish's back posts :eek: - then they can find exactly which article I'm referring to.

Funny how Moneyweek can be so bad - and yet so good, isn't it?

IveSeenTheLight

Graham_Devon wrote: »

Not very far below? It just about sqeaks past it!!

Fully agree and now we are back above it.
Hopefully the winter months will claw it back on the trend.
Then it will be good for a bit of stability and house prices follow the long term trend instead of banjoing way above and below the line like a yo-yo.

So, now that you agree that it went below the mean, can you agree with my opinion of where we were on the grief chart?

nearlynew

MissDBoat wrote: »

I can see I am going to learn a lot here.

Or just take the p1ss maybe?