Wake up Bears its feeding time

StiflersMom

Graham_Devon wrote: »

I have seen totally dissallusioned (sic) bears though, myself included. But haven't seen many "excuses" for it, for a few months now. (Talking about bull trap, spring bounce, that graph etc).

It really is music to my ears to hear bears concede defeat !!

:T

1984ReturnsForReal_2

Anyways...

Get ready for 6 months of stagnation....

StiflersMom

1984ReturnsForReal wrote: »

Anyways...

Get ready for 6 months of stagnation....

... doubt it'll be six months.

Come February, we will see house prices picking up again at a good canter

Graham_Devon

the_ash_and_the_oak wrote: »

I am curious about this GD. Do you think the reasons you thought prices could not rise are now invalid?

Yes, partly.

We crashed for a reason. Some blame america, some blame the massive increase in prices and dodgy lending in the UK also, some blame both.

However, literally a few months later we are heading full steam ahead to the height of the boom which caused us all these problems, and, pretty soon, if prices continue to rise, we could pass the height of the boom in terms of prices.

However, we have pay cuts and freezes, unemployment rising, and massive tax burdens ahead of us, and we haven't fixed any of the problems we had int he first place, simply "bought them" with money we don't have, so have had to create it, and now we owe that money, aswell as needing the money to buy the ever more expensive house.

I personally think the government intervention has created a scenario which has saved us this time, but it may cause a massive downfall later.

The way I see it....if rates were at even 3%, if stimulus had not saved so many jobs, and banks etc, if Northern Rock hadn't stopped reposessions for a political point. Would we be where we are now? I think the answer is clearly no. But at some point, we have to stop saving everything, and as can be seen in the US today with the 45% drop in sales in vauxhall after the stimulus was pulled, the REAL economy just cannot stand on it's own two feet.

I'm dissalusioned as to why the government and BOE are sitting back and letting this happen. It's like were putting our foot on the accelerator heading towards known danger with no intention of using the breaks, but every intention on hitting the sports button on the gears.

chucky

Dan: wrote: »

It's very simple Graham - something called SUPPLY AND DEMAND. Nothing can change how the market works.

As for whether it's a good thing or not, I wouldn't worry about something that's out your control.

you're right Dan - also add money sitting around and people waiting to buy property who were renting and wanting to get on the property ladder asap.

if it wasn't for the lack of credit - prices would not have stopped rising in 2007 and would probably crashed in 2015.

chucky

cootambear wrote: »

After 6 months of house price rises, the traditional autumn/winter sleep will descend on the housing market with the prospect of falling prices.
The Bears have said that the 6 month jump was caused by `low sales volumes`.
I wonder if the Bulls will say that coming falls over autumn/winter were caused by `low sales volumes` too?
They can`t both be right, surely?

Only one way to find out..........................................................................

FIGHT¬!!!!!

i don't have a problem with this thread.

if Hamish had started a thread like this about bull food he would have got a lot of grief and a lot of abuse thrown at him...

the_ash_and_the_oak

chucky wrote: »

you're right Dan - also add money sitting around and people waiting to buy property who were renting and wanting to get on the property ladder asap.

if it wasn't for the lack of credit - prices would not have stopped rising in 2007 and would probably crashed in 2015.

this is the great divide really isn't it? between those that think it was external and there was no intrinsic vulnerability in the UK housing market, and those that think there was an intrinsic vulnerability and it just needed a catalyst which could have come at any time. Its one of those things that difficult to know now for sure (and prob wont be clear really for a few years - whatever happens next)

Why do you say 2015? (its weird I remember an older friend talking about this a few years ago before selling up - to go to the US not for any other reason - and he said he thought it would become unbalanced around 2011)

chucky

the_ash_and_the_oak wrote: »

this is the great divide really isn't it? between those that think it was external and there was no intrinsic vulnerability in the UK housing market, and those that think there was an intrinsic vulnerability and it just needed a catalyst which could have come at any time. Its one of those things that difficult to know now for sure (and prob wont be clear really for a few years - whatever happens next)

Why do you say 2015? (its weird I remember an older friend talking about this a few years ago before selling up - to go to the US not for any other reason - and he said he thought it would become unbalanced around 2011)

just going by cycles, my real thoughts were between 2012 and 2015 - no proof or anything just a date where cycles of recessions go by, i sold a couple of properties in 2005 and 2006 because i wasn't comfortable with the economy. because we've had what he have now i pushed it out further.

for example 2001/2002 recession in the USA - we got out of that one i believe by being clever with our interest rates.

again 2005 we could have had a HPC and possibly a recession but rates were used again.

so we've had one now and am guessing the next one will be in about 5 years time = 2015

chucky

geoffky wrote: »

i have just woke up from my slumber (on the beach) and expect the next 12 months to be a nightmare for housing...i have just got the latest version of property bee that works and i am pleased to say prices in my area have dropped further than i thought and the drops are continuing at a pace...last time i looked at rightmove and property bee worked was about 3 months ago and the falls in my area is quite pleasing...not all areas are acting like London were the market seems to be overheating...

Geoff you know your signature...

house prices13.5% down from peak. .:T:T

It's not a recession, just a "dramatic slowing of growth":rotfl::rotfl::rotfl:

it comes across a little bit desperate like you're trying to get people to notice that house prices in fact haven't gone up in the last 8 months especially using the large font and having it in Bold...

GDB2222

I am convinced that the last 6 months of rises are real, not just noise. However, it doesn't matter even a little bit why those rises took place. The real question is whether house prices are too high now and due to fall in the long run. That long run may not happen for a while if interest rates remain low and jobs continue to be bolstered. However, eventually, we need to get back to some form of normality, and what happens then?

I think these are undeniable truths:

1. House prices are a very high multiple of earnings by historical standards
2, Mortgage payments are affordable currently, given current low interest rates, and it's not clear when rates will increase, but surely they must eventually?
3. We are very likely to have a new government shortly, with different priorities