Wake up Bears its feeding time

cootambear

After 6 months of house price rises, the traditional autumn/winter sleep will descend on the housing market with the prospect of falling prices.
The Bears have said that the 6 month jump was caused by `low sales volumes`.
I wonder if the Bulls will say that coming falls over autumn/winter were caused by `low sales volumes` too?
They can`t both be right, surely?

Only one way to find out..........................................................................

FIGHT¬!!!!!

baileysbattlebus

I think most of the bulls on here expect prices to fall over the winter and have said so, many times.

If they don't fall this winter it will be time to worry - I actually expected them to have fallen this month and was quite surprised when they were up slightly.

And the bears have been saying - it's only "noise" at the moment and any rises should generally be disregarded.

Will it still be "noise" if they fall for next few months??

geoffky

i have just woke up from my slumber (on the beach) and expect the next 12 months to be a nightmare for housing...i have just got the latest version of property bee that works and i am pleased to say prices in my area have dropped further than i thought and the drops are continuing at a pace...last time i looked at rightmove and property bee worked was about 3 months ago and the falls in my area is quite pleasing...not all areas are acting like London were the market seems to be overheating...

Graham_Devon

baileysbattlebus wrote: »

And the bears have been saying - it's only "noise" at the moment and any rises should generally be disregarded.

To be fair, aint seen a "bear" saying that for months.

I have seen totally dissallusioned bears though, myself included. But haven't seen many "excuses" for it, for a few months now. (Talking about bull trap, spring bounce, that graph etc).

the_ash_and_the_oak

any individual month is noise imo but not a series of months obv

Why are you disillusioned Graham?

Graham_Devon

the_ash_and_the_oak wrote: »

any individual month is noise imo but not a series of months obv

Why are you disillusioned Graham?

Because I cannot understand the basis on which house prices are rising and why it's such a good thing.

the_ash_and_the_oak

Graham_Devon wrote: »

Because I cannot understand the basis on which house prices are rising and why it's such a good thing.

Fair play for honesty. But why are you actually disillusioned more than merely interested?

Dan:_4

Graham_Devon wrote: »

Because I cannot understand the basis on which house prices are rising and why it's such a good thing.

It's very simple Graham - something called SUPPLY AND DEMAND. Nothing can change how the market works.

As for whether it's a good thing or not, I wouldn't worry about something that's out your control.

StiflersMom

I don't necessarily agree that house prices will dip over the winter months. The latest Nationwide figures were disappointingly low, but with the US and the UK economies continuing to strengthen house prices should be stable (possibly rising over the winter months)

Watch as the bears jump in glee if there is even the slightest hiccup



Come Spring time though, I think we will see some really robust house price rises again as activity resumes and consumers begin to feel more secure in their jobs and their future.

The real risk though is that hawks on the BOE will push to move interest rates up before the end of 2010. In order for the housing market and wider economic recovery to gain ground, they really need to hold off for at least another 12 months. Luckily, this is something the markets are pricing into forward yields.

Graham_Devon

Dan: wrote: »

It's very simple Graham - something called SUPPLY AND DEMAND. Nothing can change how the market works.

As for whether it's a good thing or not, I wouldn't worry about something that's out your control.

It's not that simple though is it.

Supply and demand is fine. But to create demand, you need the money. I don't understand where the money is coming from.

I'm not saying here that I don't understand where the actual cash is coming from, but where the cash is coming from to create these rises.

If it wa as simple as "supply and demand" we would never have seen house prices fall....they would have simply kept rising.

the_ash_and_the_oak

Graham_Devon wrote: »

Because I cannot understand the basis on which house prices are rising and why it's such a good thing.

I am curious about this GD. Do you think the reasons you thought prices could not rise are now invalid? If you think winter is coming and then there is a week of warm days do you no longer think winter is coming?