Wake up Bears its feeding time

Thrugelmir

HammerSmashedFace wrote: »

I do chuckle a little at some of the posts i read, surely people can see the elephant in the room can't they ?, or do people just cover their eyes and ears and shout la-la-la ? What we have seen is postponement of the inevitable, that's all.

People are reading all sorts into the HPI over the last months (in certain areas I might add), yet anyone with an eye for the obvious can see that the market is far from normal and is being rigged by the government in the hope of re-election, transactions 50% down, IR's with nowhere to go now only one way, RMBS dead (hence the transactions), QE....etc, the list goes on and on.

It should have already ended in tears by now and we could have started building the foundations of the economy in general, but no, we've had to meddle and the result will be us, as a country and economy losing ground on the rest of the world.

It's only a matter of time.

No one is rigging the housing market. So don't convince yourself that this is the case.

chucky

HammerSmashedFace wrote: »

I do chuckle a little at some of the posts i read, surely people can see the elephant in the room can't they ?, or do people just cover their eyes and ears and shout la-la-la ? What we have seen is postponement of the inevitable, that's all.

People are reading all sorts into the HPI over the last months (in certain areas I might add), yet anyone with an eye for the obvious can see that the market is far from normal and is being rigged by the government in the hope of re-election, transactions 50% down, IR's with nowhere to go now only one way, RMBS dead (hence the transactions), QE....etc, the list goes on and on.

It should have already ended in tears by now and we could have started building the foundations of the economy in general, but no, we've had to meddle and the result will be us, as a country and economy losing ground on the rest of the world.

It's only a matter of time.

a good conspiracy theory

Thrugelmir

chucky wrote: »

.

long term fixes are more expensive as house prices are cheaper. cheaper house prices more expensive mortgages.

Why do you think this is the case?

chucky

Thrugelmir wrote: »

Why do you think this is the case?

it's always really been the case and for a number of reasonsbut most importantly due to demand for purchases.
when there is a real market market demand for home purchases more lenders will enter the market to try and get a slice of the profit out there.

for example now the amount of available credit is low hence lower volumes but higher mortgages rates through higher margins.

HammerSmashedFace

Thrugelmir wrote: »

No one is rigging the housing market. So don't convince yourself that this is the case.

Don't have to convince myself, an associate I know defaulted on his mortgage in January with a state owned bank, and he's still in his house. It's fairly common knowledge that the state controlled banks are holding back on 1000's of potential repo's. When I say the government is rigging the market, I don't obviously don't mean completely, I mean it's having a significant input.

The normal turn of events in a housing downturn have been postponed, as I said in another post, HPI over the last decade has become 'too big to fail', just like the banks that have been bailed out.

I don't think many of the bears on this site (and include myself) realise that 35-40%+ off peak prices would cause the banks to completely collapse and state failure to ensue.

Brown, after promising not to let it get out of hand in 1997, has done just the opposite, interesting times are ahead, but I wouldn't touch housing in this country unless I was buying cash.

Thrugelmir

HammerSmashedFace wrote: »

I don't think many of the bears on this site (and include myself) realise that 35-40%+ off peak prices would cause the banks to completely collapse and state failure to ensue.

The issue only crystallises if people are unable to afford their mortgages. Prices will adjust to a lower level over a period of time not fall overnight.

HammerSmashedFace

Thrugelmir wrote: »

The issue only crystallises if people are unable to afford their mortgages.

Agree, and with people being 'encouraged' to take on more debt on the back of the 'rises' in the market, whilst IR's have nowhere to go only upwards over the period of their 25 year mortgage, the chances of many hundred's of thousands not being being able to afford those mortgages as time passes will increase significantly.

cootambear

I find it funny when bears say `IR at .5%, only one way they can go nudge nudge`, as if .5% was a bad thing, a bad situation for borrowers.

If IR were at 100% would bulls say `only one way they can go, down, our bullish argument wins`?

lostinrates

HammerSmashedFace wrote: »

Don't have to convince myself, an associate I know defaulted on his mortgage in January with a state owned bank, and he's still in his house. It's fairly common knowledge that the state controlled banks are holding back on 1000's of potential repo's. When I say the government is rigging the market, I don't obviously don't mean completely, I mean it's having a significant input.....

I mentioned recently here I had had supper with two regional solicitors dealing with what would normally be repos. There is pressure from the banks not to repossess, there is, concludably, pressure on the banks not to repossess. One mentioned his superiour had stated he had never seen situations like it.

It was also reported that in many cases this is less useful for the person i the house than it would seem. Wasn't there at some point discussion on a post from DFW or bankruptcy board or somewhere about this?

carolt

Except of course, eventually the bank needs to recoup some of its losses. They can only postpone the inevitable for so long.