MSE News: House prices to fall next year, says Nationwide

Mr.Brown_4

Firstly, thanks to MSE for reporting this news item.

Secondly I wonder what effect this sort of thing will have on the market? If I was thinking of buying a house, and read something like this I would be having second thoughts. I don't think Fionulla will be very pleased.

StevieJ

Mr.Brown wrote: »

Firstly, thanks to MSE for reporting this news item.

Secondly I wonder what effect this sort of thing will have on the market? If I was thinking of buying a house, and read something like this I would be having second thoughts. I don't think Fionulla will be very pleased.

It is just spin from the NW to discourage the bank from tightening too early especially after the Trichet comments today

Generali

Well Nationwide's predictions were wrong pretty much all the way up during the bubble, massively underestimating the scale and speed of house price rises.

I'd be wary about reading too much into what they say (although I still think British houses are too expensive for the most part).

Emy1501

IveSeenTheLight wrote: »

But i have mr ruggedtoast.
I doubt scrolling back will asnwer the question I posed though.
If it is that simple, can you quantify exactly how much in monetary terms the government has propped up house prices?

Propping up RBS. HBOS, NR and BB must being costing a fair bit. RBS shares are worth just over half what we paid for them. Also I suspect reducing stamp duty has cost fair bit, What about the schemes to help FTB's get on the market without a deposit. Also in my area many of the new build flats have been bought by Housing Associations at what cost who knows.

the_ash_and_the_oak

Really2 wrote: »

So current mortgages holders should be OK.:cool:

kinda agree w this - don't think its going to pan out that current owners will be in that much trouble - think its going to be more that they will have to like what they bought because not really thinking its going to be so easy to sell over the next few years

Really2

the_ash_and_the_oak wrote: »

kinda agree w this - don't think its going to pan out that current owners will be in that much trouble - think its going to be more that they will have to like what they bought because not really thinking its going to be so easy to sell over the next few years

I agree on that, or buy in many cases.

IveSeenTheLight

nembot wrote: »

Exactly, the few on here who managed to guess what did happen, made no mention of quantative easing in their predictions - so the result was purely conicidental.

I stated that there needed to be a 22% immediately or 15% over three years to take inflation into account.
Of course I did not factor QE into the prediction.
It didn't quite get to 22% but that was because of the timeframe involved, so I believe it turned out pretty spot on.

What did I base the percentage on to be so accurate before the consideration of QE? I based it on the long term house price trend.

I've been asking how much of the government stimulus has propped up house prices and have yet to see someone answer.

To help you along the way, I can't see it being the full QE amount as this is also available for business loans and apparently the banks are hoarding it and making money overnight.

So how much is directly going into propping up house prices? Does anyone know or is it purely people assuming

IveSeenTheLight

Emy1501 wrote: »

Propping up RBS. HBOS, NR and BB must being costing a fair bit. RBS shares are worth just over half what we paid for them. Also I suspect reducing stamp duty has cost fair bit, What about the schemes to help FTB's get on the market without a deposit. Also in my area many of the new build flats have been bought by Housing Associations at what cost who knows.

Not denying there has been stimulus for houses, including helping to stop people being repossessed, but is it quantifiable?

Propping up the banks was not solely done for the benefit of house prices.
It may have been done because of the debt the banks had, but it was to safegaurd the whole business, not just mortgages.

the_ash_and_the_oak

Really2 wrote: »

I agree on that, or buy in many cases.

Less sure about this. Think sentiment is too high re:buyers (in general) to risk missing boat. Sentiment for sellers is kinda bit more complicated imo

ses6jwg

Good.

I want to buy a house.