MSE News: House prices to fall next year, says Nationwide

ThrowingStonesAtYou

A lot of people have been wrong about house prices falls this year due to their failure to predict the lengths the government would go to to prop them up. This can't go on forever, and I fear it is only going to make things more painful in future - all this extra debt still needs to be paid back, what the government is doing is akin to taking out one last credit card in addition to the big pile of already maxed-out ones in order to keep the party going until the general election.

Really2

HammerSmashedFace wrote: »

Depends I guess on whether you're highly leveraged, on an SVR or tracker and on the rivot when it comes to household expenses when rates rise. Imagine being on the limit now if you've got 10, 15, 25 years left on a mortgage when everything possible is being done to save you. Some trackers are being sold now at 3%+ above base, eek. And of course SVR's, which hundreds of thousands are on because they can't remortgage (no equity, bad credit rating, lied before to get mortgage etc) will be on about 8%+ if base rate hits 5%..... not nice.

Of course if you're none of those things or perhaps only have a couple of years left on you're mortgage my wager would you'll be fine. Rates aren't going nowhere until it's too late, which I would guess will be 18-24 months.

I was just thinking in basic terms in "real term" falls that tends to mean below inflation performance of houses.
Because mortgage debt is in nominal terms real term falls are not as serious as nominal ones.

IveSeenTheLight

HammerSmashedFace wrote: »

And of course SVR's, which hundreds of thousands are on because they can't remortgage (no equity, bad credit rating, lied before to get mortgage etc) will be on about 8%+ if base rate hits 5%..... not nice.

I'm interested to know where you obtained these facts that there are hundreds of thousands on SVR's and cannot re-mortgage.

Is the stats are broken down into this detail, there must be some fantastic other nuggets of information we could consider. :rolleyes:

IveSeenTheLight

ThrowingStonesAtYou wrote: »

A lot of people have been wrong about house prices falls this year due to their failure to predict the lengths the government would go to to prop them up. This can't go on forever, and I fear it is only going to make things more painful in future - all this extra debt still needs to be paid back, what the government is doing is akin to taking out one last credit card in addition to the big pile of already maxed-out ones in order to keep the party going until the general election.

Can someone quatify exactly how much has propped up house prices?

ruggedtoast

IveSeenTheLight wrote: »

Can someone quatify exactly how much has propped up house prices?

You should really have been paying attention over the last 18 months. Just click back a few hundred pages and read from there.

Emy1501

IveSeenTheLight wrote: »

I'm interested to know where you obtained these facts that there are hundreds of thousands on SVR's and cannot re-mortgage.

Is the stats are broken down into this detail, there must be some fantastic other nuggets of information we could consider. :rolleyes:

I read not so long ago that there were at least 200K in negative equity. Plus I suspect few lenders will not let anyone with equity of less than 10% remortgage. BTL lenders will also refuse anyone with less than 25% equity. Another thing is its been suggested that around 15-30% of mortgages over the last 2-3 years have been interest only. The FSA said recently they wanted to clamp down on these.

HammerSmashedFace

IveSeenTheLight wrote: »

I'm interested to know where you obtained these facts that there are hundreds of thousands on SVR's and cannot re-mortgage.

Is the stats are broken down into this detail, there must be some fantastic other nuggets of information we could consider. :rolleyes:

No facts, just an opinion formed on the fact that if you keep spending borrowed money to make one self appear well off because you have no other means of doing so, the chances are you will be much worse off when the final credit card has been maxed out.

As you will still have nothing and a huge bill. I have no idea why people can't see this simple fact, unless of course they just choose not to see it which would probably include these people.

1. Bought at or near peak.
2. Just bought a house by maxing out. (bought into the media hype that prices only go up.)
3. Bought a house in the last 5 years by maxing out.
4. BTL'r.
5. Fergus & Judith.
6. Anyone else who relies on a ponzi scheme to manufacture wealth.

nembot

ThrowingStonesAtYou wrote: »

A lot of people have been wrong about house prices falls this year due to their failure to predict the lengths the government would go to to prop them up. This can't go on forever, and I fear it is only going to make things more painful in future - all this extra debt still needs to be paid back, what the government is doing is akin to taking out one last credit card in addition to the big pile of already maxed-out ones in order to keep the party going until the general election.

Exactly, the few on here who managed to guess what did happen, made no mention of quantative easing in their predictions - so the result was purely conicidental.

mystic_trev

Emy1501 wrote: »

He said back in Sept 2008 that he expected prices to be 25% down by the end of 2010 from prices at the beginning of 2008 as far as I'm aware.

Thanks - First part right, second part wrong!

I think we are into 2010 [before we see signs of recovery], Mr Beale said

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/7604894.stm

IveSeenTheLight

ruggedtoast wrote: »

You should really have been paying attention over the last 18 months. Just click back a few hundred pages and read from there.

But i have mr ruggedtoast.
I doubt scrolling back will asnwer the question I posed though.
If it is that simple, can you quantify exactly how much in monetary terms the government has propped up house prices?