MSE News: House prices to fall next year, says Nationwide

wageslave

Apropos of bugg4r all.

How many first time buyers clambered onto the housing ladder this year?

wageslave

No honestly. How many FTB entered the housing market this year? Because everything else is just the same money going round and round.

stueyhants

chucky wrote: »

propped up!? what a stupid comment.

2009 house prices have been supported by people buying them because there has been demand - no other reason.

propped up :rotfl:

The number of sales over the last 18 months has been dismal. The only reasons prices have stopped falling is there has been a corresponding reduction in supply (partly due to the government support).
Trying to imply demand is robust is factually incorrect. Be happy for the rising market (if that floats your boat) but at least recognise the real reasons for it.

chucky

Emy1501 wrote: »

So why waste at least 10-15billion propping it up then? next you will telling me that the market would be where it is if the 10-15b had not been spent :rolleyes:

no Emily you missed the point once again - you're deeply entrenched HPC viewpoint is not letting you think outside your world.

what happened in 2005 when the BOE reduced interest rates - it helped the housing market that was starting to struggle. we could have had the 2007 scenario in 2005 - we didn't. the results of this was that the the pound struggled. economic actions by government will always have downsides, the current actions will probably also have adverse affects at some point.

stueyhants wrote: »

The number of sales over the last 18 months has been dismal. The only reasons prices have stopped falling is there has been a corresponding reduction in supply (partly due to the government support).
Trying to imply demand is robust is factually incorrect. Be happy for the rising market (if that floats your boat) but at least recognise the real reasons for it.

no that's not what i have said Stuart from Hants - 2009 demand is supporting 2009 house transactions and 2009 house prices - it can't be any clearer than that... house prices go up, house prices will go down - these things happen, people need to get over it.

the_ash_and_the_oak

chucky wrote: »

no Emily you missed the point - you're deeply entrenched HPC viewpoint is not letting you think outside your world.

what happened in 2005 when the BOE reduced interest rates - it helped the housing market that was starting to struggle. we could have had the 2007 scenario in 2005 - we didn't. the results of this was that the the pound struggled.

Not totally sure about the answer to this - but - *if* we are to suggest that the 2007 problems were primarily US related and a crash wouldn't have happened then otherwise - then why was this action needed in 2005?

chucky

the_ash_and_the_oak wrote: »

Not totally sure about the answer to this - but - *if* we are to suggest that the 2007 problems were primarily US related and a crash wouldn't have happened then otherwise - then why was this action needed in 2005?

lack of FTB activity - rates lowered to increase affordability...

the_ash_and_the_oak

chucky wrote: »

lack of FTB activity - rates lowered to increase affordability...

But why was there a lack of FTB activity? - and why did such a small cut make such a difference? and why was low FTB activity in 2005 such an issue when low FTB activity in 2009 isn't? and if the market was vulnerable in 2005 then how can we say it wasn't vulnerable in 2006/2007 and would have been fine without the US situation?

chucky

the_ash_and_the_oak wrote: »

But why was there a lack of FTB activity? - and why did such a small cut make such a difference? and why was low FTB activity in 2005 such an issue when low FTB activity in 2009 isn't? and if the market was vulnerable in 2005 then how can we say it wasn't vulnerable in 2006/2007 and would have been fine without the US situation?

lack of affordability i imagine slowed the FTB activity.

the US situation pushed it over the edge (big time), the HPC scenario was on the cards for a long time.

the_ash_and_the_oak

chucky wrote: »

lack of affordability i imagine slowed the FTB activity.

the US situation pushed it over the edge (big time), the HPC scenario was on the cards for a long time.

doesn't this imply that the US situation was a trigger rather than a cause? and don't we have a situation with lack of affordability and FTB activity right now? Has the above situation really been resolved?

chucky

the_ash_and_the_oak wrote: »

doesn't this imply that the US situation was a trigger rather than a cause?

i think it was a trigger. however, it has caused it's own issues that need to be addressed first.

the_ash_and_the_oak wrote: »

and don't we have a situation with lack of affordability and FTB activity right now? Has the above situation really been resolved?

not really resolved - but the question is, what percentage of FTBs is required to support the market? there has to be FTBs but how many? nobody can really answer this.

you would need to drill deeper into this question though - you have single FTBs and dual income FTBs, both have very different affordability, dual income can afford property, for single earners it's very, very hard.