MSE News: Nationwide: house price growth slowing

Pete111

Does NW show regional stats? Would be interested in the London figures...

(Had a look but am a tad hungover so may be failing to spot it....ow)

ruggedtoast

the_ash_and_the_oak wrote: »

dont really understand why anyone would refute the figures imo. (differing opinions on the reasons behind them make sense but not dismissal imo o

I'm not refuting the figures. The figures are undoubtedly accurate based on the metric that they use. Whatever that is.

I'm questioning the qualitative validity of their index - i.e whether it is actually measuring what they claim it is.

This falls over on a number of counts, there doesnt seem to be any raw data for a start so you can't check their figures - they claim it relates to house prices, which is misleading as it relates to a subset or mortgage approvals, we don't know what data they exclude - things like that.

I'm happy to be put right but based on my admittedly basic training as a statistician, I believe it should come with a health warning.

abaxas

Great news!

We can all get back to normal, with state failure, bank runs and general unhappiness

As Loreal says..

Becasue I'm worth it.

the_ash_and_the_oak

ruggedtoast wrote: »

I'm not refuting the figures. The figures are undoubtedly accurate based on the metric that they use. Whatever that is.

I'm questioning the qualitative validity of their index - i.e whether it is actually measuring what they claim it is.

This falls over on a number of counts, there doesnt seem to be any raw data for a start so you can't check their figures - they claim it relates to house prices, which is misleading as it relates to a subset or mortgage approvals, we don't know what data they exclude - things like that.

I'm happy to be put right but based on my admittedly basic training as a statistician, I believe it should come with a health warning.

Well basically I'm thinking if it is unrepresentative then it was always unrepresentative (in which case oddly it would still kinda work as it would be mapping % change on consistent criteria). All these indices are going to be missing something but if you are comparing them with themselves over time its still giving a good picture of direction?

IveSeenTheLight

ruggedtoast wrote: »

I'm not refuting the figures. The figures are undoubtedly accurate based on the metric that they use. Whatever that is.

I'm questioning the qualitative validity of their index - i.e whether it is actually measuring what they claim it is.

This falls over on a number of counts, there doesnt seem to be any raw data for a start so you can't check their figures - they claim it relates to house prices, which is misleading as it relates to a subset or mortgage approvals, we don't know what data they exclude - things like that.

I'm happy to be put right but based on my admittedly basic training as a statistician, I believe it should come with a health warning.

did you question the "qualitative validity of their index " when the numbers were falling and when transaction levels were lower?

Really2

We all know we like a good graph.


Perhaps Clever can knock one up later for us, in the mean time the above will have to do.

ruggedtoast

the_ash_and_the_oak wrote: »

Well basically I'm thinking if it is unrepresentative then it was always unrepresentative (in which case oddly it would still kinda work as it would be mapping % change on consistent criteria). All these indices are going to be missing something but if you are comparing them with themselves over time its still giving a good picture of direction?

It could be if they're still using the same criteria as before - if they won't reveal how they collate the data there is no way in knowing. They have a vested interest in prices going up and may have changed the reporting procedure to display this.

They may not have done, but as far as transparent statistical methodology goes theyre pulling numbers out of a hat. You wouldnt license a new drug because the pharma company said "Yeah some of the people got better, lots actually, some died, but not many - well we excluded some of them - no, no we arent going to tell you which ones or how."

@ ISTL - yes I did actually - I didnt see anything like the price drops when NW were reporting price drops as I am seeing now that they've apparently been rising for a year.

I just dont think its a very useful indicator of the housing market. I understand this may be frustrating if your entire month revolves around the breathless anticipation that NW are going to go +ive again!

Really2

ruggedtoast wrote: »

They may not have done, but as far as transparent statistical methodology goes theyre pulling numbers out of a hat.

http://www.nationwide.co.uk/hpi/methodology.htm

Full methodology is the above link.

TBF if they were fudging the figures why show falls or indeed show a methodology?

abaxas

Really2 wrote: »

http://www.nationwide.co.uk/hpi/methodology.htm

Full methodology is the above link.

TBF if they were fudging the figures why show falls or indeed show a methodology?

I think this bit is the best....

"Properties sold at true market prices"

Ie they can get rid of any data they dont think is true to 'market'.

Abaxas's inresistability to women index is up this month too... Kylie was thrown out of the data as it wasnt true to 'market'.

Really2

abaxas wrote: »

I think this bit is the best....

"Properties sold at true market prices"

Ie they can get rid of any data they dont think is true to 'market'.

Abaxas's inresistability to women index is up this month too... Kylie was thrown out of the data as it wasnt true to 'market'.

I see you missed off the important bit of that quote.

Cleaning

Nationwide house price series utilise only residential property information. In addition, properties that are not typical and may distort the series are also removed from the data set. Therefore, the following criteria is used to select which properties to include:

• • House purchases - remortgages and further advances are excluded
• • Properties sold at true market prices - right to buy sales at discounted price are excluded
• • Floor size has to be within specified limits for a given type of property - e.g. a detached house has to have at least 400 sq. ft floor area