Bears in Despair Part 4.....

Really2

Thrugelmir wrote: »

Superb timing. :beer:

I thought down to around 2.5% so it as been a bonus. It cost me £1.5K redemption and £1K for the product.

So it was touch and go if it was worth it back then. (Also on edit it did not complete until mid oct so I was worried they would not honor the rate back then)

worked out well in the end, but as always lady luck also, but you make your own luck in life (and errors )

chucky

Thrugelmir wrote: »

Why? It affects a small %.

The UK is in financial straight jacket so there won't be many no-no areas. Being complacent is a dangerous game.

not complacent - i'm not easily bothered by rumour.
i have already prepared my self for the eventualities.

my properties are held within a Ltd Co - capital gains tax in a Ltd Co is not 40% it's 22% (i think or near enough). i don't pay income tax on rental income - i pay corporation tax, it's cheaper. i've already made myself very tax efficient by doing it this way.

any financial straight jacket will affect all companies and firms, they won't be raising corporation tax by 5% any time soon. that will choke any recovery or rebuilding of the economy. i'm happy as a i am.

Graham_Devon

It doesn't matter how much of a percentage drop one predicted.

A bull isn't defined by a simple prediction.

I don't get why everyone is now arguing they are not a bull all of a sudden (seems to be over the last month). You either put the positive spin on everything you see, you see both sides and sit in the middle, or your generally see negative stuff and run a negative spin.

Nothing to do with predictions.

Someone who for instance, takes the standard unemployment figures, then divides them up into months, outside of the normal definition, to make the point on a fresh thread that employment is down a couple of thousand comparing one month to another, while on all other indicies, unemployment is up.....is what I would class as a bull, amongst loads of other stuff.

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

Graham_Devon wrote: »

It doesn't matter how much of a percentage drop one predicted.

A bull isn't defined by a simple prediction.

I don't get why everyone is now arguing they are not a bull all of a sudden (seems to be over the last month). You either put the positive spin on everything you see, you see both sides and sit in the middle, or your generally see negative stuff and run a negative spin.
.

:rotfl:

Graham, technically, anyone who expects prices in an asset category to fall is a bear. Someone who expects them to rise is a bull. It's that simple.

In fact, given that I still expect house prices to fall over this winter, I am bearish on house prices. At least in the short term.

Graham_Devon

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

:rotfl:

Graham, technically, anyone who expects prices in an asset category to fall is a bear. Someone who expects them to rise is a bull. It's that simple.

In fact, given that I still expect house prices to fall over this winter, I am bearish on house prices. At least in the short term.

It's how you decribe everything, and what you are therefore trying to put across in your descriptions of events.

To try and insist that many of you are not bulls is technically, bull.

I've said I expect prices to increase up to, and past, christmas. Am I therefore a bull? I think not. You can't just swap and change month to month to suit the economic background. What you say, how you see and describe what you see, is what determines your status, at least on MSE.

IveSeenTheLight

Thrugelmir wrote: »

So what do you expect to happen in the post election budget?

As an investor I would be weighing up all the possible implications depending on ones circumstances.

Weighing up possible implications, well they could go to 25% or 30%.
They could also go to 15% or 10%.

We are back to the "what if" argument.
I don't work on "what if's" as they are not predictable at all.

the_ash_and_the_oak

tbf I think everyone here has predicted everything that happened very well - almost to the month

System

Thrugelmir wrote: »

I would suggest that one or more bulls changed and evolved the definition to suit themselves.

As in market terminology the definition is very clear.

Graham_Devon wrote: »

Nothing to do with predictions.

Someone who for instance, takes the standard unemployment figures, then divides them up into months, outside of the normal definition, to make the point on a fresh thread that employment is down a couple of thousand comparing one month to another, while on all other indicies, unemployment is up.....is what I would class as a bull, amongst loads of other stuff.

I think that clears that one up.

JonnyBravo

Graham_Devon wrote: »

I've said I expect prices to increase up to, and past, christmas. Am I therefore a bull? I think not. You can't just swap and change month to month to suit the economic background. What you say, how you see and describe what you see, is what determines your status, at least on MSE.

Eh?

Since when?
You actually are a bull on house prices over that time period according to my understanding of the word.

Surely dogmatic responses according to what one wishes to see or according to ones apparently predetermined bias shows that person to be an individual incapable of reasoning and assessment.

Your ability to predict house price rises when (I presume) that isn't what you want does you credit and removes you from that group but it doesn't get away from the fact that you're bullish on house prices over that term.

(Incidentally, I'm bearish over the same term but bullish long term)

(Oh and also, can't you see your apparent resignation to short term rises but remaining long term bearish is just the mirror image of what you are criticising from others???)

Graham_Devon

JonnyBravo wrote: »

Eh?

Since when?
You actually are a bull on house prices over that time period according to my understanding of the word.

Surely dogmatic responses according to what one wishes to see or according to ones apparently predetermined bias shows that person to be an individual incapable of reasoning and assessment.

Your ability to predict house price rises when (I presume) that isn't what you want does you credit and removes you from that group but it doesn't get away from the fact that you're bullish on house prices over that term.

(Incidentally, I'm bearish over the same term but bullish long term)

(Oh and also, can't you see your apparent resignation to short term rises but remaining long term bearish is just the mirror image of what you are criticising from others???)

I'm not talking short term. Maybe I have confused things. I am talking maybe 5-10 years. I mainly take this longer view as most of the stuff we are talking about when seperated into bulls / bears are longer term trends.

It would seem very convinient to me that when the market is going up, you become a bull, when going down, you become a bear.

Personally I don't see much point in concentrating on month to month slight increases or increases. It's the longer term that points to how we either prosper or suffer, not monthly changes.

If people are swapping and changing their whole status, as seen on this thread, because they predicted a downfall when the market was crashing, then thats fine, but I really don't see much point in even bothering with the "groups" in the first place.

Edit: My point is simple. Hamish starts a thread "bears in despair" to laugh at said people. Then, claims he too is a bear. Bit pointless?