House Price Crash Website

dfarry

We have three viewings on our place today (had one on Thursday when our house first went on the market) and we are viewing four houses tomorrow in Uckfield...for right, for wrong or how long... the house market still seems boyant to me.

zar

I found out about HPC on this forum about 6 months ago, and I've really enjoyed reading the discussions over there. It's not as friendly a forum as MSE, but it is interesting and informative and I feel that I've learned a lot from spending time reading the forum there, especially about economics in general which I hadn't learned about before.

Whether it seems optimistic or pessimistic depends on your point of view I guess. For us as a married couple of graduates in our mid-twenties it actually offers a little bit of hope that we might be able to buy one day on one salary, instead of having to follow others in delaying/not having children/not bringing our children up ourselves as we need 2 salaries to get a mortgage. I'm not saying it will happen, but its uplifting to read a site where you can dream it will!

The other positive thing about HPC is the message that its OK to rent and you're not a second-class citizen because you do. We were starting to look into buying but reading HPC helped us to think about how risky it would be for us when we are planning on moving county in 2 or 3 year's time. For us the risk of being trapped in a house by a slow market and/or negative equity is a worse prospect than being even more priced out in 2 or 3 year's time - that's a personal decision, but the arguments on HPC and also topics on this forum on the costs of buying/selling helped that decision be clearer.

lynzpower

Im another one that thinks that supply and demand are the major factors, and I wholeheartedly agree with Ian W about the balloon vs bubble analogy.

My parents road/estate went through the roof ( greater manchester) but slowly prices are deflating. Balloon working here, no crash, just that people are no longer willing to spend 300k+ on a poxy 1 or 2 bed bungalow. Fair enough in my opinion, I wouldnt dream of it, but there you are. Along comes a greater idiot etc.

Here in my spot in East London, from what I can see from the "what have they sold for" prices are going up. Additionally there is nothing much doing on the selling side of the market round here, as we are considering moving elsewhere in east london. In the estate agents windows pretty much all the properties for sale have that band accross, sold, more proerties required. Rightmove seems quite flat,as does other avenues, quick word with estate agents, or those pamplets which are always out of date anyway turn up nothing. I dont know if IM missing something. I put in an enquiry with an estate agent to consider selling just to get a ballpark idea of fees, and they have not stopped phoning me for 3 months. Desperate salesman yes, but I really think that there is a severe lack of housing coming onto the market in a very densely populated area of the UK. What little is coming up is selling for crazy money, a 2bed flat above a shop near me ( nice spec inside, but its a 2 bed flat above a shop at the end of the day) went for 280 as few weeks ago, and seemed to sell within 2 months.

Theres a lot of new build going up round here, and they seem to be selling. God knows who to, investors for some ( as they are vacant with to let boards in the windows) but other people must be buying too, to justify such huge building plans. Heres one http://www.lovell.co.uk/homes/index.asp?fuseaction=display.getstyleNEW&site_id=60&rgn_id=6 In london of course, some FTB will be on amazing salaries, eg one of my mates just bought somewhere in west london and shes on 45k a year. How much shes stretched herself though, Ive no idea.

Just my 2p.

Conrad

lessonlearned wrote:

I doubt it. I am still selling plenty of houses.

As a very wise man once told me "Land will always be the best investment - it is the one thing we can't really making any more of". This is especially true in Britain where land is in such short supply.

Japan has even less buildable surface than us with much of it mountainous, so demand far greater than supply.

They have seen prices drop FOR 15 YEARS.


Prices went down in UK between 1989 - 1995, thats 6 long years BUT INTEREST RATES WERE ONLY HIGH FOR A SHORT PERIOD

So why did prices just keep falling even though interest rates fell and fell after the peak? Why?

The reason was MARKET SENTIMENT.

Sentiment is everything.

Went property market sentiment goes negative, jobs follow. Its a viscious circle.

Im glad Ive sold my UK B2Ls releasing my money to 'sweat' elsewhere.

Everything goes in circles. Only a few people seem to reaslise this.

Conrad

dfarry wrote:

We have three viewings on our place today (had one on Thursday when our house first went on the market) and we are viewing four houses tomorrow in Uckfield...for right, for wrong or how long... the house market still seems boyant to me.

The market was its most boyant just before the crash last time.

My brother had to battle with others just to get a studio flat, it was a frenzy. He paid £59995.

Then overnight it all changed. Despite interest rates rapidly falling after hitting the peak prices just sank and sank. 3 years later with much lower interest rates he threw in the keys. The flat was repossesed and sold for £19000.

Im not saying dont buy to live. I am saying dont buy as an investment. No shrewd investor buys in this kind of market.

happenstance

lessonlearned wrote:

Most purchasers will stretch themselves to their absolute limitto buy the best they can afford, for themselves and/or for their families. Buying a house is about putting down roots and building a nest. (Investors and speculators are of course another matter).

I know several people that have got their parents to re mortgage their house and really stretched themselves to get a property on an interest only. They still call it an investment. Sadly for lots of young people they are influenced by the media and having a home is second on the list of importance after the anticipation of making money.

EagerLearner

As FTB that recently had to pull out of out last-chance-saloon purchase (due to time restraints), we're disheartened and unhappy with the current market, and yet, in 6-12 months we will still probably buy a place. If we have to beg, borrow and steal, we will probably pay over the odds for a stinky rabbit hutch in Brighton, with a view onto a busy road! If there are more FTB equally aiming to buy no matter what, then the market will keep at it's current pace.

I'm not very knowledeable in economics, but as an earlier poster said, it's all about the emotions and wanting a home. For now, we will keep renting and saving each month to pile more onto our (5%) deposit. Maybe at 10% deposit we will have better chances, but knowing our luck, the market will have increased and our 10% will represent 5% at that time...

TomStickland - love your sig ;o)

EagerLearner

dfarry

Conrad wrote:

The market was its most boyant just before the crash last time.

My brother had to battle with others just to get a studio flat, it was a frenzy. He paid £59995.

Then overnight it all changed. Despite interest rates rapidly falling after hitting the peak prices just sank and sank. 3 years later with much lower interest rates he threw in the keys. The flat was repossesed and sold for £19000.

Im not saying dont buy to live. I am saying dont buy as an investment. No shrewd investor buys in this kind of market.

I don't remember it being overnight but yes I agree boom and bust seems to have a terrible habit of repeating itself. Though the market seems boyant that doesn't mean it is good for all. I am not a financial advisor, or an economist but anyone planning to buy now or even when prices are at an all time low still need to scrutinise their finances and be totally clear what they are commiting themselves to.

...just to add... we ended up with 4 viewings today - all very positive, 2 seemed likely to make offers but I wont count my chickens just yet

aloiseb

I thought part of the reason for the last crash was that the dear Chancellor cancelled MIRAS (tax relief on mortgage payments)??

Thsi time I reckon it will be Seller's Packs which swing it.

Doom, doom!!

lynzpower

Anyone

Can some one tell me why it will be Sellers packs/hips that are often mooted as the start of the crash. Aside from all the pros & cons of hips that weve discussed to death, why is the HIPS thought to be the start of the crash?