Tory cuts could be mighty unpleasant

Thrugelmir

LauraW10 wrote: »

Johann Hari: Britain's not bust. So don't use it as an excuse to impose cuts

They're going to do "a Thatcher" to us all over again. And Britons are sleep walking into it.

and this is the worst bit

Well at the moment Mr Brown seems to treating the people of this country as primary school infants. I for one am fed up with spin and quarter baked policy annoucenced to deflect the news of the day. And not forgetting the hidden taxation policies that get buried in every years budget.

And in case anyones forgotten.....

In very few words "prudence concept" means assets should not be overstated and liabilities should not be understated. ...

Spiv_2

The more interesting question is whether attempts to cut the deficit much more quickly than planned can succeed in a weak economy.
Why? Because, as I've said before, you're unlikely to be able to reduce borrowing as a share of national income (you may not even be able to reduce it in absolute terms) if national income declines at the same time.
Not only do you have a falling denominator (GDP), but you end up spending more on things like unemployment benefit, just as you are cutting elsewhere. Overall spending may not even fall.
If the next government withdraws too much demand from the economy, too quickly, that is what will happen.

If any government does too much, too soon, then that could endanger the recovery as well. David Cameron talked of a plan today - not a timetable - because I think he knows that as well.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/thereporters/stephanieflanders/

Looks like Stephanie is hoping that the Tory "planned" cuts are just rhetoric

Thrugelmir

Spiv wrote: »

Looks like Stephanie is hoping that the Tory "planned" cuts are just rhetoric

I wouldn't have thought so. Reduction in spending will happen.

Cuts is an emotive word. The raising of a public sector pay freeze is so that people remain in work. There aren't masses more joining the dole queues. Everyone sharing the period of austerity.

If house prices fall and rents correspondingly drop as a result then we can all earn less as a nation. As we will still have the standard of living as before.

Old_Slaphead

Thrugelmir wrote: »

Cuts is an emotive word. The raising of a public sector pay freeze is so that people remain in work. There aren't masses more joining the dole queues. Everyone sharing the period of austerity.

Unions won't tolerate a jobs cull so it will be done by stealth. Outsourcing, natural wastage, reducing expenditure budgets, 3 line whip on sickies etc so staff get p*ssed off and leave etc etc.

Ditto with pensions - year or 2 on retirement age, percent or two on contributions, move to career average for starters etc.

Softly, softly catchey monkey

The_White_Horse

cut cut cut and then cut again. then slash the wages of those that remain.

remember public sector, you are just a drain and cost to the wealth producing sector that funds you. you contribute nothing.

you are paid too much, there are too many of you and you are hopefully going to get what you deserve - a dose of reality.

robin_banks

The_White_Horse wrote: »

cut cut cut and then cut again. then slash the wages of those that remain.

remember public sector, you are just a drain and cost to the wealth producing sector that funds you. you contribute nothing.

you are paid too much, there are too many of you and you are hopefully going to get what you deserve - a dose of reality.

How do you come to this conclusion?.

bendix

mewbie wrote: »

Not sleep walking. Running, skipping and jumping into it. Bring it on.

And not just running, skipping and jumping neitherm . . .

Positively racing towards it, eyes open, celebrating and crying out joyously.

The contrast between Osborne's honesty about the fiscal state of the country and the harsh measures needed, with Brown's shuffling non-mentions has been breathtaking.

It's a gamble admittedly, but one that will pay off. People know tough times are ahead, especially for those who rely on the state for their income, either in work or from benefits. I think they appreciate the honesty of the Tory gamble, rather than the 'can't say the c-word, eyeline avoiding' deceit of Labour.

kennyboy66_2

I think the problem with all of this talk of cuts, is that most of it is just talk at the moment.
Even Thatcher couldn't actually cut spending.
They will do well to keep spending flat, and hope (and pray) that a bit of growth and inflation of 2-3% erodes some of it away.

When the real cuts do come in, there will howls of "yes, we wanted cuts - but I didn't mean me".

The other certainty that no-one has addressed (and which the tories in 81 had to resort to) is tax increases.

I think VAT back to 17.5% then up to 21% in the first emergency budget is almost a certainty. It raises a decent whack and is quite a "fair" tax.

It probably chips in £16bn to take it from 17.5% to 21%.

As it will never come down, it would also potentially pave the way for direct tax cuts some years (5 at least) down the line.

daveyjp

The 100,000 "lost" public sector jobs with them all on the dole is a complete red herring as to the lay person it appears 100,000 people will get a P45 and be asked to leave.

In reality that's not the case. From their own figures there are 5,000,000 jobs in the public sector, so it would be a 2% drop in numbers.

Due to the size of public organisations and previous budget constraints many areas aren't at full staffing capacity. You could remove 100,000 posts today and not put anyone on the dole, along with this I suspect there are a few thousands people close to retirement age who would happily go early and quite a few thousand others who would go if offered the right package.

There's 200 here already but no P45s required:

The City of York Council has announced how its going to save fifteen million pounds in its base budget over the next four years.
The authority's Chief Executive Kirsten England says cut backs are essential and will result in the loss of about 200 positions.
She told Minster FM though these will not be compulsory redundancies, but just natural selection as people retire or leave the council.

I don't fall for the guilt trip approach.

Good to see "The White Horse" is still good value for money for inane comments. Back under the bridge Troll.

Old_Slaphead

kennyboy66 wrote: »

I think VAT back to 17.5% then up to 21% in the first emergency budget is almost a certainty. It raises a decent whack and is quite a "fair" tax.

I think you've got that wrong - it's completely unfair as it's imposed irrespective of ability to pay thereby disproportionately affecting the poorest in our society.