MSE News: Halifax: house prices up for third successive month

IveSeenTheLight

Treadmill wrote: »

I'm no wizz with maths but at this rate Nationwides YOY for February will be huge, if prices remain flat until February it would be nearly 10% as it stands, but a couple more 1.6% MOMs and it will be off that chart

I'm neither a bear nor bull (or any pigeonhole) but I do love a good graph

Most rational people realise there is likely to be falls over the winter though

Really2

Cannon_Fodder wrote: »

I couldn't think of how the low end had altered.

If you have ideas, please share them.

Obviously, post-crash, there will be repos, cash buyers perhaps...

But I was trying to stay on the subject of the effect of higher salary multiples.

Pre crash
Boom, cash buyers (big bonus spent BTL etc). one can not presume all money entering the market was mortgage money.
Everyone was making good cash so heavy amount of investment cash would have entered the market also.
Inflation is in the end of the day money dripping in to a market so if people got more money it stands to reason a greater proportion entered in the form of cash also. (lowering LTV)

Remember the people who have posted cash purchased retirement fund BTL flats that had dropped 50%.
Can't see many doing cash by new build flats in the middle of the crash.


Most of the extremes will still be the same boom or bust, that is the way the market works.
The removal of any mortgage below 90% (and 90% really) had an instant effect on changing the LTV average.;)

IveSeenTheLight

the_ash_and_the_oak wrote: »

Don't agree that prices stagnating at bottom is an unreliable prophecy though (think its really rather early to be dismissing that idea - at least until transactions are higher again imo)

I'm thinking that transactions really mean diddly squat (well it seems to be prooving such with the current data)

Transactions is in my opinion an indicator of sentiment.
Transactions are lower because the market has been cautious and slowly increasing this year and fortunately supply has also lowered in this period showing people either did not need or were unwilling to sell in the falling price climate.

The fact that both demand and supply are lower have helped to sustain the market.
When or if these become out of align, then you see a change in house prices.

I'm thinking the low transactions is helping prices rise as the available demand compete against the quality low supply that is in the market

Cannon_Fodder

Really2 wrote: »

100%+ was never the norm.

But it doesn't have to be the 'norm' to be a, possibly substantial, factor, is my point.

If we went from;

Portion of market..............LTV
25%...............................50% or less
50%...............................50% to 80%
25%...............................80% to 95%

to

Portion of market..............LTV
25%...............................50% or less
50%...............................50% to 80%
15%...............................80% to 95%
10%...............................95% plus


Its not the NORM, but its 10% with extra funding, who will outbid the rest...

And next year prices reflect it, so a different 10% decide to push to their financial limits, etc etc...

Crude figures, but for examples sake...

Oh, and of course, NR and others used "secured loans" to go over 100%, so they won't ever show up on the 'mortgage' map, so its a bit false...?

the_ash_and_the_oak

IveSeenTheLight wrote: »

I'm thinking that transactions really mean diddly squat (well it seems to be prooving such with the current data)

Transactions is in my opinion an indicator of sentiment.
Transactions are lower because the market has been cautious and slowly increasing this year and fortunately supply has also lowered in this period showing people either did not need or were unwilling to sell in the falling price climate.

The fact that both demand and supply are lower have helped to sustain the market.
When or if these become out of align, then you see a change in house prices.

I'm thinking the low transactions is helping prices rise as the available demand compete against the quality low supply that is in the market

Transactions mean a lot if you're trying to sell a house imo

not sure why you think the low transactions aren't important. It should be easier to buy and sell in a healthy market imo. don't disagree w rest of post tho tbf

IveSeenTheLight

Graham_Devon wrote: »

It's not a myth. It wasn't small numbers of loans. Most were at higher multiples.



Thats the average.

The average of 3.5x ended in 2002.

Graham, That's a FTB ratio.
What's the ratio for all mortgages?

the_ash_and_the_oak

don't agree 100% was ever the norm and have never read that anywhere tbf (do think that if you extend credit to a proportion of market that increase bidding ability tho. and that this means those w/out deposit can now compete, increasing overall number of bidders for a property imo)

IveSeenTheLight

the_ash_and_the_oak wrote: »

Interesting stuff. One thing I think we can all agree that the HSBC link thats been on here a few times the last few weeks is a good thing w 3.5x at 90% is a good thing imo

Can anyone find any of the higher income multiple (or affordability-based ones if you prefer) that are at 90% LTV and above. Do you think they will return? (and who do you think will be first?)

Here's the HSBC link.
https://hsss1.hsbc.co.uk/bankinguk/mortgageAIP/ourservice.jsp?Start=true

It should be noted that they offer 3.5 x joint income (90% LTV) e.g. £210k for two £30k earners on a property valued at £234k

They offer 4.5 x joint income for the 75% LTV's

IveSeenTheLight

Lotus-eater wrote: »

Yes spot on, so what happens next then? More properties come onto the market as prices rise, all those accidental landlords selling up as up becomes worth it?

Accidental landlords are not all going to put their properties on the market rapidly increasing the supply all at the same time.

Some will be held on tenancy agreements.
Some may be happy to retain the property with the rental income they receive.
Some may see capital growth and keep as an investment

the_ash_and_the_oak

IveSeenTheLight wrote: »

Here's the HSBC link.
https://hsss1.hsbc.co.uk/bankinguk/mortgageAIP/ourservice.jsp?Start=true

It should be noted that they offer 3.5 x joint income (90% LTV) e.g. £210k for two £30k earners on a property valued at £234k

They offer 4.5 x joint income for the 75% LTV's

Yeah saw this on the other thread. at 90% LTV they offer 3.5x single income as well.

But think we were trying to find out who was offering 90% LTV at 4.5x salary (or greater) in the past