MSE News: Halifax: house prices up for third successive month

IveSeenTheLight

mewbie wrote: »

Well I have two basic modes of operation. One is the repetitive and rather lame joke. The other is a constant nit picking wind up. You don't really get a choice in the matter.

Indeed I do have a choice. I choose to no longer feed you (respond) as a Troll

mewbie wrote: »

On this occasion though, as so many other times, there is a strong element of truth in what I say. A large amount (unquantified) of BTL mortgages were taken out with liar loans on inflated salary / rent expectations and using personal mortgages. It doesn't need fact sheets to point out the bleeding obvious.

If you can show facts relevent to the topic we are discussing

• A surge in investers selling property as a result of the capital gains tax changes from tapered releif to a flat rate of 18% (From Oct 2007 - April 2008).

If you can add to this point it might help to understand the impact back then and if there is a likely surge in accidental landlord sellers and what impact they may have.

mewbie_2

IveSeenTheLight wrote: »

If you can show facts relevent to the topic we are discussing

• A surge in investers selling property as a result of the capital gains tax changes from tapered releif to a flat rate of 18% (From Oct 2007 - April 2008).

If you can add to this point it might help to understand the impact back then and if there is a likely surge in accidental landlord sellers and what impact they may have.

Oh. Sorry about that. I see your name, and some burble about complicated ecognomic theory, and I just think BTL. And a red mist descends and I have to type some !!!!!! quickly.

IveSeenTheLight

Thrugelmir wrote: »

Amongst others. Property developers both large and small as well.

Multi occupancy houses have been let in University towns for years. Property rental is not a new business. The art in business is to know when to take a profit. Greed is the undoing of many.

I can agree with this.
I don;t see how this backs up your belief that there was a surge of investment sellers between Oct 2007 and April 2008 due to the Capital Gains Taxes.

If we can understand that, the numbers there were and the impact it caused, it might go some way to understanding the potential impact you relate to regarding accidental landlords selling after 36 months of renting.

Thrugelmir

IveSeenTheLight wrote: »

I can agree with this.
I don;t see how this backs up your belief that there was a surge of investment sellers between Oct 2007 and April 2008 due to the Capital Gains Taxes.

If we can understand that, the numbers there were and the impact it caused, it might go some way to understanding the potential impact you relate to regarding accidental landlords selling after 36 months of renting.

I've never said a huge surge of sellers. If you had £10 million invested in the residential property market prior to 1999, in 5 years you could have doubled your money. As some very fortunate people did. I'm not suggesting that they exited the market entirely, but took the opportunity to offload shall we say the poorer performing elements of their portfolio. When the clamour was to buy from lets politely call the amateur leveraged fraternity.

There have been many changes to CGT over the years, and not just tax rates. So depending on ones circumstances there are different opportune moments to realise gains.

tomstickland

IveSeenTheLight wrote: »

Pretty much was trying to suggest that the buyers are competing for the quality properties that are available.

If the transactions were higher, then maybe the buyers would be spread out through the current supply and there would have been less competition and thus less HPI.

OK, that's a bit clearer.
I don't think that prices are rising.
The average reported figure has risen,for sure.
But that's because the only transactions taking place are for people who can afford to pay the asking prices. My experience is that the majority of the market has come to a standstill.

As an analogy, let's imagine that we're getting the monthly reports on motor vehicle average prices.
When everyone is buying then it is a useful number.

Imagine that the mass market comes to a standstill and the only transactions are some wealthy people buying expenisve vehicles. Yes, the average price would go up, but it would not mean that the price of the average vehicle was going up.

IveSeenTheLight

Thrugelmir wrote: »

I've never said a huge surge of sellers. If you had £10 million invested in the residential property market prior to 1999, in 5 years you could have doubled your money. As some very fortunate people did. I'm not suggesting that they exited the market entirely, but took the opportunity to offload shall we say the poorer performing elements of their portfolio. When the clamour was to buy from lets politely call the amateur leveraged fraternity.

There have been many changes to CGT over the years, and not just tax rates. So depending on ones circumstances there are different opportune moments to realise gains.

I think you have gone down the road and taken a path turn off that it different to what we were initially discussing.

You said there may be a rush of accidental landlords who sell up before they incur capital gains tax as a result of letting for 36 month.

I mentioned that I did not see a rush of sellers as a result of the most recent capital gains tax changes which you said there were, but now seems you may have been referring to a longer period of time.

Of course we will see some accidental landlords selling up, but I don't foresee this as being a rush all at one time and hence I doubt there will be any noticable impact to the housing prices as a result

IveSeenTheLight

tomstickland wrote: »

OK, that's a bit clearer.
I don't think that prices are rising.
The average reported figure has risen,for sure.
But that's because the only transactions taking place are for people who can afford to pay the asking prices. My experience is that the majority of the market has come to a standstill.

As an analogy, let's imagine that we're getting the monthly reports on motor vehicle average prices.
When everyone is buying then it is a useful number.

Imagine that the mass market comes to a standstill and the only transactions are some wealthy people buying expenisve vehicles. Yes, the average price would go up, but it would not mean that the price of the average vehicle was going up.

There may be lower numbers but still sufficient to show accurate averages. 56,000 house purchase loans is enough in my opinion not to be skewed by a few higher priced properties

Remember that there is an increase in FTBer percentages compared to a year ago.

http://www.cml.org.uk/cml/media/press/2397

Don;t get me wrong, I think we are in a period of stagnation.
We have seen prices rise in the last few months and we will likely see falls in the coming months.

One last query. Did you think that house prices were not falling because of low volumes in 2008? There could have been less higher priced properties selling :rolleyes:

P.s. isn't motor behicle prices increasing too

Thrugelmir

IveSeenTheLight wrote: »

I think you have gone down the road and taken a path turn off that it different to what we were initially discussing.

You said there may be a rush of accidental landlords who sell up before they incur capital gains tax as a result of letting for 36 month.

I mentioned that I did not see a rush of sellers as a result of the most recent capital gains tax changes which you said there were, but now seems you may have been referring to a longer period of time.

Of course we will see some accidental landlords selling up, but I don't foresee this as being a rush all at one time and hence I doubt there will be any noticable impact to the housing prices as a result

Apologies , yes I digressed. Multi tasking .

Not a rush of sellers. Agree with that. I just view it as another potential downward pressure on house prices. As accidental landlords see their capital erode they will sell. If for no other reason than returns will be better elsewhere.

House prices like all markets are a jigsaw. At the moment the pieces of this one don't fit together. I always add the proviso that some will be winners, but losers will be in the majority.

IveSeenTheLight

Thrugelmir wrote: »

Apologies , yes I digressed. Multi tasking .

Not a rush of sellers. Agree with that. I just view it as another potential downward pressure on house prices. As accidental landlords see their capital erode they will sell. If for no other reason than returns will be better elsewhere.

House prices like all markets are a jigsaw. At the moment the pieces of this one don't fit together. I always add the proviso that some will be winners, but losers will be in the majority.

I don't see them sell as a result of their capital eroding, they will sell when they can get a buyer to meet the valuation they have.
Their capital value could have been rising while they have been leasing out.

When they do put the properties back on the market, they will of course be increasing supply, which in turn suggests that house prices could drop. A lot depends on what demand is doing in that area and of course sentiment to house price changes.

It may be possible that increased supply from accidental landlords could just help to stagnate house prices rather than the rises we have seen

I always add the proviso that each area is different. Some may be falling, others rising. Best check out your own local data than get hung up on UK averages.

nembot

Can the Halifax, Nationwide, estate agents or any lender be trusted when there is so much to lose?

When it comes to real increases in prices, there is no real evidence that I've seen, only stagnation and lots of overpriced houses owned by people living in cloud cuckoo land.

It's not just homeowners trying to sell, but landlords too. There's a place up the road from me asking double the rent I'm paying for a smaller place, because it's neutrally decorated with a few hundred quid's worth of garden lights - it's been up for two months now, reduced by £200 pcm but still available, I wonder why...

People got used to getting richer on paper each month and simply cannot handle the fact that this was ultimately going to become unsustainable (it's simple logic). You can see these people on here, calling the bears idiots hoping we're heading back to the 2002 to 2007 years. Sorry to say guys and gals, those days are over and are unlikely to come back for a while.

No amount of slagging people off with different opinions is going to change a thing, we're not even close to seeing where this recession is going and until we do, any speculation of where we're going to be in 12 months time or further down the road is a totally pointless exercise.