MSE News: Halifax: house prices up for third successive month

the_ash_and_the_oak

chucky wrote: »

another HPC urban myth kicked into touch

which myth is debunked here?

That 100% mortgages are not as prevalent today as 3 years ago?

Lotus-eater

mr_fishbulb wrote: »

The people who are buying still have jobs. There are less houses for sale, and there are probably less people looking, but the number of people looking is still high enough to keep the sales prices up on the few properties available.

Yes spot on, so what happens next then? More properties come onto the market as prices rise, all those accidental landlords selling up as up becomes worth it?

Really2

Lotus-eater wrote: »

More properties come onto the market as prices rise, all those accidental landlords selling up as up becomes worth it?

Rising pricing this year as not seen more property's entering the market. Personally I think supply will remained constrained until building starts properly again.
I presume the accidental landlords like many have said have 2007 prices on their mind.

If they have perhaps they will not sell until prices are not back to 2007 prices.

Don't forget housing benefit is stopping those people who have lost jobs and have a house from being repoed.

Prices should fall over winter but will we have another crash like the 07/08 scale. I don't think so now (and I was in the 25-35% down camp)

chucky

mr_fishbulb wrote: »

The people who are buying still have jobs. There are less houses for sale, and there are probably less people looking, but the number of people looking is still high enough to keep the sales prices up on the few properties available.

the employment rate is currently around 93% - it's expected to go down to just under 91%.

that is an extremely large majority of people that are still in work.

Lotus-eater

Really2 wrote: »

I presume the accidental landlords like many have said have 2007 prices on their mind.

If they have perhaps they will not sell until prices are not back to 2007 prices.

Don't forget housing benefit is stopping those

You could well be right, I know one accidental LL well and he isn't selling yet, I'm very sure he has his mind on 2007 prices.
The only people I know that are selling atm, say they are taking advantage of the rise and are going to rent, they think prices will fall again. They are having a bit of a financial problem, jobs and all that.

Graham_Devon

chucky wrote: »

the employment rate is currently around 93% - it's expected to go down to just under 91%.

that is an extremely large majority of people that are still in work.

LOL you could say that if it was 70% at work.

Fact remains, it's a low number in work, whichever way you want to dress it. That 91% doesnt include SO many people.

Really2

Lotus-eater wrote: »

The only people I know that are selling atm, say they are taking advantage of the rise and are going to rent, they think prices will fall again. They are having a bit of a financial problem, jobs and all that.

I thought the STR part was risky at this stage but giving financial problems as well it is very sensible.

I know one selling because of a break up of relationship.

So out of our small sample both are in reality "forced".

chucky

Graham_Devon wrote: »

LOL you could say that if it was 70% at work.

Fact remains, it's a low number in work, whichever way you want to dress it. That 91% doesnt include SO many people.

if this figure was 99% - there would still be people moaning and accusing other of dressing things up. some people are just never happy.

put it this way... after apparently the worst recession since the 1930's; we only have about 1 million more people unemployed than when the problems began. is that dressed up too?

Lotus-eater

Really2 wrote: »

I thought the STR part was risky at this stage but giving financial problems as well it is very sensible.

I know one selling because of a break up of relationship.

So out of our small sample both are in reality "forced".

That's right, forced really, which must make up a large proportion of sellers atm.

So as I said, what happens next? Do ordinary people see the rises and think, oh, I'll move upwards/downwards now then and then get annoyed when the house they want to buy has gone way up in price in just a few months from the low?

Not round here btw, prices still seem to be lowering if they want a sale.

And then what, do they wait for prices to hopefully fall, or do they jump in a quick as poss before they soar again?

I just can't see the soaring long term and I also can't see the stagnation, we're all just too interested in houses for the prices to do nothing.

Really2

Lotus-eater wrote: »

That's right, forced really, which must make up a large proportion of sellers atm.

So as I said, what happens next?

Personally.Fall possible back to Feb 09.
Relative stagnation for good few years due to debt, regulation, credit, tax etc. etc.
Lending to be relatively cheap for a long time (below 6% for 75% LTV mortgages).