Employment analysis

chucky

lemonjelly wrote: »

True at time of typing Chucky.
Thing is, I think we all accept unemployment will lag behind exiting the downturn. At this time, proportionally more young workers are being let go (been there a short time, less likely to get redundancy pay etc) However as time goes on, there is a chance that we will see the older age groups starting to dominate the figures being released of that time (mainly because there will be less young people employed, and/or the need to make bigger cuts).

that's all we can do at "time of typing" and only assume what happens in the future - can you remember a few weeks a ago when i was saying that unemplyment wouldn't be the worst factor for homeowners - this is my point.

a lack of credit, a reduction in disposable income, possible wage cuts and a cut in spending power will hit them more deeply than unemployment IMO.

the older age groups will/we would expect to have redundancy money or even savings to help them compared to a younger unemployed person.

lemonjelly

chucky wrote: »

that's all we can do at "time of typing" and only assume what happens in the future - can you remember a few weeks a ago when i was saying that unemplyment wouldn't be the worst factor for homeowners - this is my point.

a lack of credit, a reduction in disposable income, possible wage cuts (or reduction in household income) and a cut in spending power will hit them more deeply than unemployment IMO.

Most likely cause of these will be unemployment IMO

the older age groups will/we would expect to have redundancy money or even savings to help them compared to a younger unemployed person. Not neccessarily, as older generations have started to be more mobile, so don't have the length of service we assume as if they'd been there since leaving school. Though agree with the principle.

I think we need to be a little careful. Yes facts tell us the picture now. To an extent, we're also trying to theorize about the forthcoming months/year/years. Some are speaking as though the downturn is ended, upwards & onwards, homeowners untouched by this.

|Being in the midlands, let me assure you this is categorically untrue.

Working in the field I do, I anticipate that although we are in a stagnation period, there are elements of the economy which will get worse.

I anticipate roosters may come home at Christmas, & we'll be having a bleak 2010. If we get another round of redundancies, that W thingy could well raise its head again...

chucky

lemonjelly wrote: »

I think we need to be a little careful. Yes facts tell us the picture now. To an extent, we're also trying to theorize about the forthcoming months/year/years. Some are speaking as though the downturn is ended, upwards & onwards, homeowners untouched by this.

|Being in the midlands, let me assure you this is categorically untrue.

Working in the field I do, I anticipate that although we are in a stagnation period, there are elements of the economy which will get worse.

I anticipate roosters may come home at Christmas, & we'll be having a bleak 2010. If we get another round of redundancies, that W thingy could well raise its head again...

actually you do make a very good point - i was looking at in general terms in that unemployment or the concentration of unemployment will be higher in certain areas that will have a negative impact on house prices and the local economy. this won't happen everywhere but there are areas that it could happen quite easily. apologies i generalised too much

lemonjelly

chucky wrote: »

actually you do make a very good point - i was looking at in general terms in that unemployment or the concentration of unemoplyment will be higher in certain areas that will have a negative impact on house prices and the local economy. this won't happen everywhere but there are areas that it could happen quite easily. apologies i generalised too much

No apologies necessary dude, we're all here to learn, evolve, & get the fcuk off this planet...
I'm just trying to seperate the data we're seeing now, with the possibilities of what could be round the corner.

chucky

lemonjelly wrote: »

I'm just trying to seperate the data we're seeing now, with the possibilities of what could be round the corner.

i'd take that point further by maybe looking at industries and the concentration of certain industries in certain areas.

lemonjelly

chucky wrote: »

i'd take that point further by maybe looking at industries and the concentration of certain industries in certain areas.

With the historic concentration of manufacturing in the midlands & north, I suspect it is why these areas have been the first to suffer.

Theoretically speaking, employment markets are allegedly a lot more fluid nowadays? Don't know how true this is.

In the midlands & north, I would suspect there will have to be a large focus on retraining. Many people in manufacturing/manual trades tend to be involved in the same job or very similar lines of work for years. It has been argued for years that manufacturing jobs are on the wane.

What will all these people do? And if we look at what happened to mining towns, will we see similar things happen to some rather large towns which are (currently at least) disproportionately affected by unemployment, and also repossession?

Are we seeing a re-emergence of the north-south divide?