Employment analysis

vigilaire

As an employer with a small business I suggest that jobs will never be created at the speed they are being lost if ever at all. Lots of small businessmen are going it alone, downsizing and employing agency staff as well as each other when they need a hand.

There is zero incentive to take anyone on, just loads of redtape, parents flexi hours and god knows how many more hinderences to getting the job done. It is all well and good giving workers all these rights and benefits but not when it leads to them not getting a job in the first place.

We along with many other businesses I know have not wasted the recession but taken the opportunity to cut loose all the dead wood and downsize the workforce. The ones still in work now work harder and none of those laid off ever questioned 'the recession' as the reason they were down the road.

Cannon_Fodder

phil_b wrote: »

In terms of house prices/pruchases, I'm thinking the majority of unemployed folk are those who wouldn't really be in a position to buy a house anyway, job or no job.

phil_b wrote: »

That sounds a lot like speculative personal opinion rather than fact.

Pot and kettle?

Have you any articles that support your opinion...? I cannot see anything in either of StevieJ's links that provide house purchase intention versus employment status.

Or is it only for others to provide evidence to dispute your assertion, while you don't have to backup up your opinion...?


A possible pointer to "mature" people's actions in these times is the graph;
Chart 2: Percentage unemployed not claiming Jobseeker’s Allowance

"In previous recessions the proportion of the unemployed not claiming benefit has shrunk to around zero. This recession, we started with a historically high proportion of unemployed not claiming Jobseeker’s Allowance (JSA). The proportion not claiming fell, as expected, but in the past three months the pattern has changed in an unexpected way, with the proportion of unemployed people who are not claiming JSA rising by 1.2 percentage points two months ago and maintaining the higher level over the past two months."


This could point to a substantial proportion of newly unemployed being mature enough to have either savings above £16k or a partner whose income precludes the unemployed person from getting Income-based JSA, or both. So, at the six months stage, after their Contributions-based JSA is exhausted, they sign-off from being a claimant but remain unemployed...


ps. there's no lefthand scale on the google graph, I didn't think that was allowed, as it could be anything...?!

1984ReturnsForReal_2

StevieJ wrote: »

It shows the same pattern

http://www.google.com/insights/search/#q=jobcentre%2Cbenefits&geo=GB&cmpt=q

Ooooooooooooooops


I didnt read the graph correctly.


Anyways the aug/sept peak which is way over dec 2008 is likely to be due to the students finishing in June/July.

Lotus-eater

I think the news I heard the other day about university fees absolutely having to go up, should have an effect on this, for many years we have brushed young unemployment under the carpet, by sending more and more off to university, now it looks like we will have a falling amount going.

What PN says is true as well, I know alot of SE people working alone and they are in PN words. "a lot of older people will be self-employed and not actually working, but living off savings, doing what they can and getting by in the hope that something will change any day now."

avisccs

A lot of my uni friends can't find a job after graduation. Many of them now study for a master degree, going overseas to try their luck, taking 1 year break etc. Should we be happy that we have more educated young people or sad that the economy is bad?

btw, there is also something call 'early retirement'. I would expect many will be from NHS next year.

phil_b_2

Cannon_Fodder wrote: »

Pot and kettle?

Have you any articles that support your opinion...? I cannot see anything in either of StevieJ's links that provide house purchase intention versus employment status.

Or is it only for others to provide evidence to dispute your assertion, while you don't have to backup up your opinion...?

Not really a pot-kettle-black situation. The previous post made pretty firm assertions:

The data is flawed ... a lot of older people will be self-employed and not actually working, but living off savings, doing what they can and getting by in the hope that something will change any day now.

Older people are less likely to sign on, whereas 100% of young unemployed will do.

I didn't put my opinion accross as fact so much. There are quite a few articles which suggest the average age of a first-time-buyer is around 34. E.g:

http://www.ifaonline.co.uk/ifaonline/news/1349455/average-buyer-age-reaches-34

http://www.articlesbase.com/real-estate-articles/average-age-of-first-time-uk-house-buyer-reaches-34-208113.html

That would put the vast majority of unemployed people well out of the house-hunting bracket. That was in 2007 too, when volumes were rampant.

Cannon_Fodder

phil_b wrote: »

In terms of house prices/pruchases, I'm thinking the majority of unemployed folk are those who wouldn't really be in a position to buy a house anyway, job or no job.

phil_b wrote: »

Not really a pot-kettle-black situation. The previous post made pretty firm assertions:

I didn't put my opinion accross as fact so much. There are quite a few articles which suggest the average age of a first-time-buyer is around 34. E.g:

http://www.ifaonline.co.uk/ifaonline/news/1349455/average-buyer-age-reaches-34

http://www.articlesbase.com/real-estate-articles/average-age-of-first-time-uk-house-buyer-reaches-34-208113.html

That would put the vast majority of unemployed people well out of the house-hunting bracket. That was in 2007 too, when volumes were rampant.

Still searching your earlier posts for any facts...where is the "majority who ever become unemployed never buy homes" statistical link..??

The latest post's "facts" appear irrelevant. What does average FTB age have to do with whether an unemployed person will ever buy a house - "job or no job"...??

Youngsters who suffered unemployment during past recessions, went onto own houses...and those unemployed in this one will go onto own homes in due course - I don't get the "job or no job" comment...

Fair enough, whilst unemployed there is little chance, indeed its sensible not to in case they have to move for a job, but once they get employment they will probably go on to do the normal, average things that people do in life, including owning a home.

The way I read your comment, is that anyone who becomes unemployed is automatically "of a type" to be unable to own a home, ever. In your opinion. Just as firmly asserted as other opinions...without facts.

chucky

it's quite simple really without people trying to cloud issues to suit their own agenda...

unemployment is impacting the younger age groups more therefore it is less likely to have an impact on home owners as they are usually older - therefore the hopes of many of unemployment hitting home owners causing reposessions or forced sellers will not be as large as expected.

Really2

Cannon_Fodder wrote: »

The way I read your comment, is that anyone who becomes unemployed is automatically "of a type" to be unable to own a home, ever. In your opinion. Just as firmly asserted as other opinions...without facts.

To be fair I read his "majority" comment as long term unemployed those who have never had a desire to work and are looked after well by a benefit system that supports them.

I don't think he was saying anyone who ever becomes unemployed will never buy. The majority are normal people who need to work like you and I.

Just that we have a large amount of people during the boom that did not want to work or no need too. I can't see their aspirations changing in the current climate.

I could be wrong, but I think that is what he meant.

lemonjelly

chucky wrote: »

it's quite simple really without people trying to cloud issues to suit their own agenda...

unemployment is impacting the younger age groups more therefore it is less likely to have an impact on home owners as they are usually older - therefore the hopes of many of unemployment hitting home owners causing reposessions or forced sellers will not be as large as expected.

True at time of typing Chucky.
Thing is, I think we all accept unemployment will lag behind exiting the downturn. At this time, proportionally more young workers are being let go (been there a short time, less likely to get redundancy pay etc) However as time goes on, there is a chance that we will see the older age groups starting to dominate the figures being released of that time (mainly because there will be less young people employed, and/or the need to make bigger cuts).