What do you think properties will be worth 10 years from now?

SingleSue

new_home_owner wrote: »

I had a look at this the other day house prices peaked in 1989, then interest rates went up and houses fell by about 10,000 pound at most,but this was not in the 10 year cycle, the fall was mainly caused by high interest rates.

But houses did rise back up to what they was in 1989 well before the 10 years was up and in 1999 they was up 10,000 pound from 1989.

Remenber this was when house prices were lower, so from peak they dropped more than 10% and gained when they went back up over 20% more than when they was at the bottom

Houses at peak 1989 62,782 they went down to ther lowest 1993 50,128 and then they went back up 1999 to 70,000 pound.

here take a look at this

http://labs.timesonline.co.uk/blog/2009/01/27/what-property-price-bubble/

I dont think house prices will fall as much as the interest rates dont look like they are going to go up, but i do believe house prices will stagnate for at least a couple of years from now.

We bought a house in 1990, the previous people lost nearly 20k when we bought it from them......when it sold in early 1995, it sold for nearly 20k less than we paid for it.

In 1998, it still sold for less than what it had been sold for in 1995.

It only went positive (as in more than it sold for in 1995) by a couple of hundred in 2000, reached the price we paid for it in early 2002...by 2008 (our peak), it went for 4 times as much as it sold for in 1995!

Googler - My parents bought in 1969, a 1930's semi for £3000....at peak worth around 200k+ and possibly 150-160k now.

IveSeenTheLight

PasturesNew wrote: »

Right, I have before me monthly house prices from 1971 to now... and so I have just done a check. Month by month, when had houses doubled over 10 years and when had they not.

01/71-06/93: YES
07/93-05/02: NO
06/02-07/09: YES

So for 12 years they did, then for 9 years they didn't.

If house prices sit exactly where they are now and don't move, then by March 2010 we will again be back to "NO", so they won't have doubled in the previous 10 years of March 2000 to March 2010.

They maybe will not have doubled in the 10 years, but they will be more than they were 10 years ago.

There would also be in the periods you were looking at there were times when property more than doubled.
I think the doubling in 10 years was an average

IveSeenTheLight

keith969 wrote: »

Well there was rampant inflation in the 1970's, what you need to look at is the inflation-adjusted prices. If you use the Nationwide data, you have:

1977 £59K
1987 £92K
1997 £82K
2007 £189K (peak of the recent bubble)

The long term trend is for house prices to follow wage inflation. And we're unlikely to see high wage inflation in the next 10 years.

Do you buy property with inflation adjusted prices or nominal prices.

Debt is nominal, hence you buy today for X pounds and if by inflation or whatever in 10 years time it's worth 2X yet your debt is still X- capital repayment.

keith969

IveSeenTheLight wrote: »

Do you buy property with inflation adjusted prices or nominal prices.

Debt is nominal, hence you buy today for X pounds and if by inflation or whatever in 10 years time it's worth 2X yet your debt is still X- capital repayment.

You buy based on your earnings. If average earnings stay the same over the next 10 years, can a FTB afford to buy a house at twice today's prices?

LandyAndy

I bought 234 Manley Road, M20 in May 1980 for £16,950 (and sold it in May 1985 for £19,950).

In Feb 2006 232 Manley Road (the other half of the semi) sold for £192,000.

Hailstorm

It always makes me laugh when you have these people that know what prices are going to do because they are always extremely optimistic or extremely pessimistic. They are both like the broken clock that tells the right time twice a day as one will be correct during a boom and the other during a bust.

The past can give pointers as to what happens but it will not give the answer. There are many factors that drive house prices and whilst you can look to see what influence each individual factor might have had in the past, the chances of all the factors being the same is low.

Nobody has ever been able to successfully consistently predict what house prices will do long term in the past so why expect that to change now?

not_loaded

Q: So which self righteous poster on this thread, not long ago had an unsupported, unlinked sig claim: “50%+ Falls in House Prices by Christmas 2009”?

And why has it disappeared? :rolleyes:

tek-monkey

Lol, hadn't noticed that.