What do you think properties will be worth 10 years from now?

geoffky

In japan prices have fallen for the last ten years....and we are in the exact same position now as they where then...stagnation is the order for the next ten years so anyone relying on house prices to bail them out of debt better get used to the idea that it will not..

tek-monkey

I may be wrong, but thought Japan had a declining population? We do not, I'm sure that must account fopr something?

new_home_owner_3

tek-monkey wrote: »

Out of interest, what was the average 10 year gain for 1993-2002? Was it much better than you'd get in a bank?

I had a look at this the other day house prices peaked in 1989, then interest rates went up and houses fell by about 10,000 pound at most,but this was not in the 10 year cycle, the fall was mainly caused by high interest rates.

But houses did rise back up to what they was in 1989 well before the 10 years was up and in 1999 they was up 10,000 pound from 1989.

Remenber this was when house prices were lower, so from peak they dropped more than 10% and gained when they went back up over 20% more than when they was at the bottom

Houses at peak 1989 62,782 they went down to ther lowest 1993 50,128 and then they went back up 1999 to 70,000 pound.

here take a look at this

http://labs.timesonline.co.uk/blog/2009/01/27/what-property-price-bubble/

I dont think house prices will fall as much as the interest rates dont look like they are going to go up, but i do believe house prices will stagnate for at least a couple of years from now.

new_home_owner_3

geoffky wrote: »

stagnation is the order for the next ten yearsd to the idea that it will not..

Your living in dream land maybe a couple or three years of stagnation, you need to get off the crack pipe.........:eek:

Running_Horse

You might get a better response asking this question in the house price forum.

But then again you might get 30 pages of insult and circular responses.

In answer to your question, nobody knows, and if they say they do they are lying or deluded.

tek-monkey

Running_Horse wrote: »

In answer to your question, nobody knows, and if they say they do they are lying or deluded.

What he said, past trends do not necessarily predict future occurances.

fitpig

OF COURSE property goes UP with every decade! Anyway who says otherwise is just jealous.

Thermidor

I wouldn't like to be as specific as your banker friend but no-one needs to have a crystal ball to know that property always goes up in the long term.

Even taking into account the latest property slump (which is now on its way back up again) property NEVER dropped to 1997/8/9 levels. Even at its LOWEST it never fell back to the levels it was at ten years previously.

So of course property will be worth much more in 10 years time from now. That's just a given.

googler

My parents bought a new-build in 1970 for £5,295.

There's one exactly the same, a few doors along, for sale at the moment for £230,000. If we're pessimistic, and assume this will sell for, say, £180,000, that seems to suggest rate of increase way above merely doubling every ten years......

keith969

googler wrote: »

My parents bought a new-build in 1970 for £5,295.

There's one exactly the same, a few doors along, for sale at the moment for £230,000. If we're pessimistic, and assume this will sell for, say, £180,000, that seems to suggest rate of increase way above merely doubling every ten years......

Well there was rampant inflation in the 1970's, what you need to look at is the inflation-adjusted prices. If you use the Nationwide data, you have:

1977 £59K
1987 £92K
1997 £82K
2007 £189K (peak of the recent bubble)

The long term trend is for house prices to follow wage inflation. And we're unlikely to see high wage inflation in the next 10 years.