Bears In Despair part 2......

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

the_ash_and_the_oak wrote: »

I mean I guess its understandable if you don't want to have the argument again (particularly if you won) but could be interesting for some of the other guys

OK, very simply...

In a balanced housing market both prices and rent will rise in roughly eqaul proportions.

If the balance of property swings too far into rented, then prices will rise far faster, and rental yields will rise far slower.

If the balance swings too far into houses for sale, then a shortage of rental will be created, and rents will rise very quickly, whilst prices rise far slower, if at all.

In other words, it is possible to have an overall shortage of houses, but stagnating rents.

And I'm pretty sure that the average rental price in London has in fact risen over the last 5 years, but just less than house prices. As for room rental prices, thats different again and is another supply and demand market that is not subject to rising just because rents and prices do.

nearlynew

OK, even simpler............

This time next year house prices willbe lower than they are now.

100% guaranteed.

the_ash_and_the_oak

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

OK, very simply...

In a balanced housing market both prices and rent will rise in roughly eqaul proportions.

If the balance of property swings too far into rented, then prices will rise far faster, and rental yields will rise far slower.

If the balance swings too far into houses for sale, then a shortage of rental will be created, and rents will rise very quickly, whilst prices rise far slower, if at all.

In other words, it is possible to have an overall shortage of houses, but stagnating rents.

And I'm pretty sure that the average rental price in London has in fact risen over the last 5 years, but just less than house prices. As for room rental prices, thats different again and is another supply and demand market that is not subject to rising just because rents and prices do.

kind of thinking a shortage of housing is when people dont get to live in houses imo. I mean, i know its anecdotal but pretty sure i don't really know any homeless people tbh

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

the_ash_and_the_oak wrote: »

kind of thinking a shortage of housing is when people dont get to live in houses imo. I mean, i know its anecdotal but pretty sure i don't really know any homeless people tbh

If by "shortage of housing" you mean are there enough bedrooms in the Uk for everyone to have shared accomodation, then there is not a shortage of housing.

Pretty sure that's not exactly an ideal solution, but until we build more houses, that will continue to be the only option for all but the wealthiest 30% or so.

the_ash_and_the_oak

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

If by "shortage of housing" you mean are there enough bedrooms in the Uk for everyone to have shared accomodation, then there is not a shortage of housing.

Pretty sure that's not exactly an ideal solution, but until we build more houses, that will continue to be the only option for all but the wealthiest 30% or so.

dont really mean that tbf- think the post i linked to upthread contained 3 bed places rather than houseshares imo

the_ash_and_the_oak

But you are kind of right, single people often rent too. Was wondering if there were more of them relative to supply in 2003 than in 2009, and if this had pushed prices up

here findapropertys page of places to rent in NW5 in 2003
http://web.archive.org/web/20030825165711/www.findaproperty.co.uk/cgi-bin/area.pl?areaid=0275&opt=prop&salerent=1&sp=1

and in 2009
http://www.findaproperty.com/searchresults.aspx?edid=00&salerent=1&areaid=6789&sp=1

IveSeenTheLight

geoffky wrote: »

Links to figures please..only 780k of empty homes plus 1 million for sale on rightmove are the figures.

http://www.emptyhomes.com/

So many spare houses, they should be going cheap then :rolleyes:

the_ash_and_the_oak

findaproperty again. here are some 4bed houses in N19 in 2002

http://web.archive.org/web/20020131061948/www.findaproperty.co.uk/cgi-bin/area.pl?areaid=0274&opt=prop&salerent=1&sp=1

and again in 2009

http://www.findaproperty.com/searchresults.aspx?edid=00&salerent=1&areaid=0274&sp=17

kind of unsure about the effects of supply and demand on these tbh

chucky

geoffky wrote: »

Links to figures please..only 780k of empty homes plus 1 million for sale on rightmove are the figures.

http://www.emptyhomes.com/

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

How do you know it's "plus"?

Can you confirm, with a linked source, that the 780,000 are not listed on rightmove? Or that the million listings on rightmove doesn't contain duplicate listings?

And more importantly, if I go to the effort of providing the linked sources, are you going to actually debate the issue or will you just disappear again....

this is said to him everytime he puts says this nonsense - he chooses to ignore the facts and live in geoffky fantasy world

mewbie_2

IveSeenTheLight wrote: »

So many spare houses, they should be going cheap then :rolleyes:

They will, they will.