If we're out of the woods now ... who gets the credit?

inspector_monkfish

Dan: wrote: »

Who gets the blame: US

Who got us out: Gordon

Ramsey?
Smart?
Banks
Isamoron?

Cleaver

I think we, the general public, bring us out of recession. Whilst I'm sure the government's shenanigans have worked their magic and got things working / plunged our kids in to years grinding austerity (delete depending on your point of view), we come out of recessions because, well, what else are we meant to do? We can't stay in it for ever, we're British, not Japanese.

The vast majority of us still have our jobs, houses, savings, investments and plasmas. This isn't the '30s; we haven't had to eat coal for three years or make all of our clothes out of dripping like the used to in a recession. Lots of people pulled their money out of everything in 2007/8 and now everyone starts to think, 'hmmm, is this coming to end? I'll buy something. Like a managed fund, or a share, or a new house.' And then the recession starts to end and we slowly start to form the next boom and on to the next crisis. Which will probably be based around over-inflated bubbles of renewable energy, or companies building hydrogen powered cars, instead of housing, tech stocks, tulips or whatever was big a few years ago.

I know, I know: bank fundementals, tax burdens for generations, it's not the same this time. It's looking like it is the same though, isn't it?

Yakubu22

Cleaver wrote: »

I think we, the general public, bring us out of recession. Whilst I'm sure the government's shenanigans have worked their magic and got things working / plunged our kids in to years grinding austerity (delete depending on your point of view), we come out of recessions because, well, what else are we meant to do? We can't stay in it for ever, we're British, not Japanese.

The vast majority of us still have our jobs, houses, savings, investments and plasmas. This isn't the '30s; we haven't had to eat coal for three years or make all of our clothes out of dripping like the used to in a recession. Lots of people pulled their money out of everything in 2007/8 and now everyone starts to think, 'hmmm, is this coming to end? I'll buy something. Like a managed fund, or a share, or a new house.' And then the recession starts to end and we slowly start to form the next boom and on to the next crisis. Which will probably be based around over-inflated bubbles of renewable energy, or companies building hydrogen powered cars, instead of housing, tech stocks, tulips or whatever was big a few years ago.

I know, I know: bank fundementals, tax burdens for generations, it's not the same this time. It's looking like it is the same though, isn't it?

Cleaver may i say that I enjoy your posts...they're well balanced and obviously well thought out.

kabayiri

I understand Cleaver's point to a degree, but isnt the diff between now and the 30s partly due to a credit fuelled society, gorging itself on cheap credit.

It was put well the other day; the west is choked by debt; the east by export capacity.

Post-financial crisis, who is to say these foreign investors are happy to continue merrily as before? If I were a Chinese businessman, I'd be pretty annoyed with assumptions the status quo will continue. Let us remember, they want to become a pre-eminent member of the controlling Financial nations, and the recession has weakened the West.


I don't know what the future holds, none of us do. I'm not even sure its in our own control though now?

Cleaver

kabayiri wrote: »

I don't know what the future holds, none of us do. I'm not even sure its in our own control though now?

I reckon it'll be fairly similar to the past, give or take a few things. I kinda get the whole west / east financial power stuff, but I think as we become a global world it becomes less and less important.

I think the idea of China and India becoming economic powers, for example, in the past would have scared the hell out of everyone and made people worry for their job, future and whether we'll have a war. I guess in the modern time they shrug and buy a Indian-stock market based investment vehicle and shares in a Chinese telecoms company.

Thrugelmir

kabayiri wrote: »

I understand Cleaver's point to a degree, but isnt the diff between now and the 30s partly due to a credit fuelled society, gorging itself on cheap credit.

It was put well the other day; the west is choked by debt; the east by export capacity.

Post-financial crisis, who is to say these foreign investors are happy to continue merrily as before? If I were a Chinese businessman, I'd be pretty annoyed with assumptions the status quo will continue. Let us remember, they want to become a pre-eminent member of the controlling Financial nations, and the recession has weakened the West.


I don't know what the future holds, none of us do. I'm not even sure its in our own control though now?

Its out of control currently. Though there's no reason why with an emphasis on rewarding long term saving and investment that the UK can't turn the situation round. Being independent of the Euro is a distinct advantage at the moment.

tomterm8

It's still very messy I don't think we are out of the woods, but we are probably out of the swamp, and past that river where there are fishes that smell urine and then swim up your... nevermind...

And the person who gets the credit...

Um, well, hopefully, if QE works, it might just be me.

But looking at this article http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/fce8b1b0-a091-11de-b9ef-00144feabdc0.html probably not.

mewbie_2

Cleaver wrote: »

I think the idea of China and India becoming economic powers, for example, in the past would have scared the hell out of everyone and made people worry for their job, future and whether we'll have a war. I guess in the modern time they shrug and buy a Indian-stock market based investment vehicle and shares in a Chinese telecoms company.

I don't think ex Woolies workers will be buying many shares in anything.

Cleaver

mewbie wrote: »

I don't think ex Woolies workers will be buying many shares in anything.

True. Nor will anyone who has unfortunately lost their job. But, as I said in a previous post, by far the vast majority of people have kept their jobs. And judging by the 40% rise in the FTSE over the past 6 months, those with jobs have been buying shares in quite large volumes.

kabayiri

We are all shaped (tarred?) by our own experiences (cue poor excuse for an indulgent segway.....)

In the late 80s I worked for a pretty high tech UK manufacturing company. I was in the Advanced techniques section.

Anyway, we had what I assumed was a Chinese student placed with us, and generously we sent him on all the courses / showed him all the latest techniques etc.

At his leaving do, I found out he was actually a 40 year old lecturer, and a key advisor to Chinese gov! I'd got to know him quite well, and he turned to me and said .."we don't want your products, we can't afford your products, we want your technology!".

Anyway, at the time, Chinese manufacturing quality was a bit ropey...we thought it would take them a while to turn it around. How wrong we were!

I guess what I'm saying, in a non-Xenophobic sense, is these people are our competitors. We will be competing in a global marketplace for work and prosperity more and more, and I for one, do not underestimate their ability and commitment to advancing their own well-being.

I still don't feel confident that selling Financial Services will power the UK out of recession into a brighter future....but I hope I'm wrong