MSE News: Inflation hits five-year low 10 September 2009 at 12:05PM edited 13 October 2009 at 9:27AM in Debate House Prices & the Economy 36 replies 449 views

Dan:_4

ruggedtoast wrote: »

You're going to look like such an absolute nob a year from now.

With your past predictions, you know what it's like to look a nob.

Dan:_4

mbga9pgf wrote: »

Nope. More QE will be likely though. Hence the reaction of CABLE.

Until they get money velocity up (yeah right, like that happens with rising unemployment), falling prices are increasingly likely. Unless they devalue to such an extent that import prices rocket. I alway laugh at this. They see stable low inflation as a good thing. How they achieve that doesnt seem to matter. The fact we are all spending more on a litre of imported petrol, or more on imported food and clothing does not a recovery make. :rotfl::rotfl::rotfl:

Wage inflation? Not on your nelly.

A litre of petrol is cheaper then summer 2008

Your comment reagrding wage inflation - it will not apply to everyone. I got a 4% rise in April and scheduled for 3% in April 2010.

ruggedtoast

Dan: wrote: »

With your past predictions, you know what it's like to look a nob.

Thanks Dan, thats really special coming from you.

Edit: Anyway the last "prediction" I made, was back in the Spring. I said that prices would likely continue to rise until Winter, when I thought they would then start to drop.

Dan:_4

ruggedtoast wrote: »

Thanks Dan, thats really special coming from you.

Thats all right mate.

I remember about a year ago, when I said house prices would likely bottom around Spring 2009 - you (and others) jumped on me and said I would look a fool/nob/idiot come 12 months.

Don't worry, im not after an apology

ruggedtoast

Dan: wrote: »

Thats all right mate.

I remember about a year ago, when I said house prices would likely bottom around Spring 2009 - you (and others) jumped on me and said I would look a fool/nob/idiot come 12 months.

Don't worry, im not after an apology

As far as I know Hamish is the first person I have called a nob. And even then only in the future simple.

Considering you were sitting on the fence until June 09 I find your anecdote rather unlikely in any case.

Dan:_4

ruggedtoast wrote: »

Considering you were sitting on the fence until June 09 I find your anecdote rather unlikely in any case.

[sigh] have I got to go rooting through the archives again to prove this wrong.

ruggedtoast

If you don't mind.

ruggedtoast

Gosh Dan - I've been sitting here pressing F5 for the last day and a half.

nicko33

ruggedtoast wrote: »

Edit: Anyway the last "prediction" I made, was back in the Spring. I said that prices would likely continue to rise until Winter, when I thought they would then start to drop.

Which, according to the RPI figures, has so far been true.

My predictions for the next 4 months (as last year's highs drop out of the YoY figures) are:
-0.8%
+0.2%
+1.9%
+3.3%

Generali

It looks like the UK is inching closer towards my non-prediction of deflation. I still think deflation is only a risk, even if CPI turns negative, albeit one that is increasing still.

The cuts in mortgage rates should have just about fed through the RPI figures too so it'll be interesting to see what happens with those numbers.

FWIW, I reckon it's reasonable to say that if two of CPI, RPI and RPIX have been negative for most of a year (say 9 months) then it's reasonable to say the UK has deflation. So far the RPI has been negative for 7 months but the other metrics are positive so the UK, by my definition, doesn't suffer from deflation thus far. Cost of living is pretty much flat I think it's fair to say.

nicko33 wrote: »

Which, according to the RPI figures, has so far been true.

My predictions for the next 4 months (as last year's highs drop out of the YoY figures) are:
-0.8%
+0.2%
+1.9%
+3.3%

Hi nicko33,

What are those numbers predictions of please?