Bank Shares to Fall In September..Why?

LULULU1

I have read in 2 or 3 places that Llloydstsb and RBS shares are expected to fall in September.

Is there any special reason for this.

Thanks

bendix

They may, or they may not.

People talk about September, solely because historically it has been the worst month for sharemarket performance statistically, whereas December has always been the strongest.

It's a lot of nonsense.

It's amazing, isnt it. The people who talk about this economy and market being completely unprecedented are the same people saying we need to beware of September because of historical trends.

Well, which is it people?

cheerfulcat

LULULU1 wrote: »

I have read in 2 or 3 places that Llloydstsb and RBS shares are expected to fall in September.

Is there any special reason for this.

Thanks

Presumably because that's when the serious ( institutional ) investors come back to the market - trading is usually quite thin over the summer.

purch

I have read in 2 or 3 places

Which 2 or 3 places ?

00ec25

LULULU1 wrote: »

I have read in 2 or 3 places that Llloydstsb shares are expected to fall in September.

good, I shall buy some more and make even more money when the dividend restarts and I sell in 5 years time after they have recovered back to £5

StevieJ

cheerfulcat wrote: »

Presumably because that's when the serious ( institutional ) investors come back to the market - trading is usually quite thin over the summer.

Are you saying that the fund/pension managers who charge 1.5% + don't do any work for 3 months :eek:

Masomnia

00ec25 wrote: »

good, I shall buy some more and make even more money when the dividend restarts and I sell in 5 years time after they have recovered back to £5

Good luck with that...

sabretoothtigger

If RBS 'recover' to £5 'like they used to be' it would make them one of worlds largest companies at £282bn
The whole of Exxon is only $350bn

RBS Market Data

Currency UK Pounds Share Price 55.55p
Shares Issued 56,369m
Market Cap £31,313m

HSBC is valued £115bn and they are valued at 20 times their earnings.


It'd be about the same as swapping Shell, BP, HSBC just to buy RBS which doesnt seem likely to ever happen

cheerfulcat

StevieJ wrote: »

Are you saying that the fund/pension managers who charge 1.5% + don't do any work for 3 months :eek:

Well, July/August anyway...for example, this Reuters article warns

In financial markets, there is also a plausible explanation for summer crises -- or at least why they have such a profound impact. With many market players away, trading volumes are usually much lighter but any volatility is much greater.
"If you are an asset manager, you should take a much more defensive position over the summer, particularly if you are going to be away for some time -- certainly more so than if you are going away at another time of year," said Michael Ganske, head of emerging markets research at Commerzbank. "Any market moves will be much greater."

00ec25

but I deleted RBS from my reply if you read it again, it was for LLOY only, even so it was

Masomnia

00ec25 wrote: »

but I deleted RBS from my reply if you read it again, it was for LLOY only, even so it was

You're still looking at them being valued higher than BP. Not holding my breath, sorry!