Bank Shares to Fall In September..Why?

sabretoothtigger

Have you got a link, rbs is issuing 35bn of debt in the us? Wonder what rate they'd pay might be good

Masomnia

They've recently issued debt here, too, look in the pensions board for somethign about fixed rates in a SIPP from a few days ago. Rate was 5.3%, so not too sparkling.

Masomnia

http://ukmarkets.rbs.com/EN/Showpage.aspx?pageID=151&cid=200

sabretoothtigger

Yea but shares wise, the 5.3 rate would be not a bad cost. The whole reason they failed was no one wanted to hold their debt so a new issuance is a positive for them


Is this government backed debt guaranteed and with a fee payable on top to them

Masomnia

sabretoothtigger wrote: »

Yea but shares wise, the 5.3 rate would be not a bad cost. The whole reason they failed was no one wanted to hold their debt so a new issuance is a positive for them


Is this government backed debt guaranteed and with a fee payable on top to them

I don't think it's guaranteed in any shape or form. Given the risk I think I'd want more than 5.3%pa.

In the even that RBS went down, including full nationalization, you'd be higher in the pecking order than shareholders (I think!) but you'd still stand to lose.

Actually now I think about it I seem to remember B & B defaulting on debt interest payments, as these didn't come under the conditions of the bail out. So definitely a risk there!

pete80

bendix wrote: »

They may, or they may not.

People talk about September, solely because historically it has been the worst month for sharemarket performance statistically, whereas December has always been the strongest.

It's a lot of nonsense.

It's amazing, isnt it. The people who talk about this economy and market being completely unprecedented are the same people saying we need to beware of September because of historical trends.

Well, which is it people?

There's quite a good page of charts here showing those trends you mentioned. Of course the trends shown will not work every year and where they show say a 5% decline it could equally be a 12% decline or a 2% rise.

I still think they are quite interesting and do use them for small spread bets sometimes on the FTSE/DOW indices, nice showing last September and October though with the massive drops on the Dow.
http://www.seasonalcharts.com/Indices.html

sabretoothtigger

That chart seems to say the average yearly growth adds upto 8% for the ftse, its not that good afaik

sabretoothtigger

http://www.iii.co.uk/investment/detail?code=cotn:RBS.L&display=fundamentals&it=le#row3

pete80

sabretoothtigger wrote: »

That chart seems to say the average yearly growth adds upto 8% for the ftse, its not that good afaik

The chart covers from the FTSE inception in 1984 to 2007, the site doesn't even say whether it is FTSE100 or FTSE All share. Saying that I don't know if both indices started in 1984 or not.

I only started using the sites charts for FTSE and Dow in June last year and am happy with putting on my Dow sell bet last September. Having looked at past weekly charts over some years it obviously doesn't work like that every year but to be fair what system/chart study does.

I am about to put on another down bet by the end of this week on the Dow and if it goes wrong, I gotta take it on the chin but I will run the bet till 23rd October. Finger's crossed....