City taken by surprise as Bank of England’s figures herald end of recession

Thrugelmir

julieq wrote: »

That's frankly why moderate voices here tend to be directionally right more often than the extreme ones, because we build in the expectation that big problems will tend to be resolved and we believe in cycles.

Whilst my views, on a given day, my differ to a fellow poster. I would hardly call many that I read extreme. Sometimes ill informed perhaps. As we are all learning daily about what really happened. We all see the situation both personally and from work/business perspective from different angles.

I would never doubt that "big" problems will be resolved over the longer term. Managing an economy is cyclical.

What will affect us all is the micro decisions on tax, housing, pensions etc. As fundamental changes are necessary. There in no history or similar experience to fall back on. So for a while there will be considerable uncertainty that makes important decisions very difficult.

lemonjelly

Thrugelmir wrote: »

Whilst my views, on a given day, my differ to a fellow poster. I would hardly call many that I read extreme. Sometimes ill informed perhaps. As we are all learning daily about what really happened. We all see the situation both personally and from work/business perspective from different angles.

I would never doubt that "big" problems will be resolved over the longer term. Managing an economy is cyclical.

What will affect us all is the micro decisions on tax, housing, pensions etc. As fundamental changes are necessary. There in no history or similar experience to fall back on. So for a while there will be considerable uncertainty that makes important decisions very difficult.

To be honest, it is rare that I find a posters opinion on here extreme. What I do occasionally find extreme though, is the premises/starting point for their arguement. But that is the variety of a fora like this.

Personally, where else am I going to exchange views with people in different continents? Or people who's jobs are much more "high powered" than mine? Or people at higher management levels? Or people on benefits?

Though I have a varied background, I don't see my job as massively important in the grand scheme of things. And I'm not a high level anything in any form. Yet I can come here & exchange ideas, perspectives, viewpoints and opinions on a wide variety of issues affecting us all.

Thing is, I'm sure everyone kinda claims to know the answer, yet deep down none of us have a bloody clue!

ruggedtoast

bendix wrote: »

I'd supplement that, with perusing the posts of that splendid follow bendix. You might learn a bit from him.

The rest is pretty much a load of cobblers though, agreed.

:beer:

Did Graham come back after he went off in a huff on page one?

julieq

I wouldn't include you in the extreme camp, Thrugelmir, I may disagree with you on conclusions you draw at the margin, that's really an optimist/pessimist split, but fundamentally I agree completely with what you have in your sig.

julieq

ruggedtoast wrote: »

Did Graham come back after he went off in a huff on page one?

Graham is like a cork in a slurry pit. He ALWAYS pops back up.

bendix

ruggedtoast wrote: »

Did Graham come back after he went off in a huff on page one?

Yeah, but only after I sent Really2 off with to fetch him back, pram-spilt toys firmly picked up and offered back oh so nicely.

chucky

julieq wrote: »

Graham is like a cork in a slurry pit. He ALWAYS pops back up.

Graham is plucky, very plucky

ruggedtoast

That he is. Graham you always bounce back my son and thats why you'll do alright in the end - hpc or no.

Ingsy

julieq wrote: »

Graham is like a cork in a slurry pit. He ALWAYS pops back up.

Sorry, misread that for a sec...

Rochdale_Pioneers

We're back to political narrative again. We were faced with a global recession caused by a global financial crisis of confidence of credit. It was patently obvious last autumn that we would be taking unprecidented action to replace dried up banking credit with government supplied credit - thats all the politicians talked about as they dived in to rescue not just individual banks but the entire banking industry.

Obvious everywhere apart from in the Tory party and their natural supporters. They never accepted the fact that this was a global event requiring global action - blame went instead to Brown for creating a UK recession that was somehow going on in a bubble immune from everywhere else. The Tory front bench argued against the fiscal stimulus concept, finding itself almost uniquely alone in a world full of political parties arguing over who could spend the most the quickest.

So why did this extraordinary level of intervention catch Tories unaware? Because they wouldn't have done it. We know what Tory governments do in the face of a recession - they cut spending and make it worse. The Howe recession was made deeper and longer by government policy - even Alan Walters told them that their monetarist fixation was crippling the economy. We then saw the Lawson recession where they were happy to spend billions on the fire of political expediency keeping the £ at an unsustainable level against the DM (Major says in his autobiography - "we could see no other policy") but not willing to spend money on ordinary people crippled under decade long interest rates at 10% and unemployment quickly heading back to 4m.

Why couldn't the frothers here comprehend that our government and the American government and every government in the EU would spend a fortune to keep their economies afloat? Because the political ideology says state bad therefore spend little and if that means a generation on the dole then its a price worth paying - we're going to blame the unemployed for their predicament anyway.

Even now we have the disgusting sight of Cameron once again trying to spook the markets into a crash by claiming Britain could default. he categorically knows we won't he knows very clearly how much debt we are in. But the economy is just another political football to kick - if peons suffer because of it so what?